In the third of the Scottish Cup Final previews, I look in detail at how Motherwell compare to the other SPFL sides in terms of their style of play.
The Glossary already has its name engraved on the trophy.
For a very detailed tactical preview I once again recommend the excellent @thetenspace on the new and fresh Modern Fitba site.
Steelman Style
Note all the data below if for matches AGAINST Celtic by the SPFL sides – i.e. it is not their performances against all the other SPFL sides.
I’ve shown that Motherwell have adopted different defensive approaches against Celtic from a high press to a deep block. Some of this approach has been dictated by circumstances – they have been down to 10 men for 22% of match time against Celtic this season. But what about with the ball?
The cliché is that Motherwell are a long ball team but does the data bear this out?
Firstly, let’s look at their pass volume and pass completion % against Celtic compared to all the other SPFL sides this season.
What this shows is that Motherwell have completed least number of passes (121 on average) against Celtic with the lowest pass completion % (only 59% passes complete – the only SPFL side under 60%). Fluent attacking possession football it is not – quite the opposite. At the other end of the scale, and one of the reasons Hibernian are cited as the best team Celtic have played domestically (they clearly don’t play as well against all other sides) is that they play passing football (286 per game) and accurately (79% – the only side over 75% pass completion versus Celtic).
Playing a direct game means that there will likely be plenty of aerial challenges. Clearly to be effective with this approach you need to be winning a good share of those.
Note that no side has won over 50% of aerial challenges against Celtic. Some context: Celtic do not generally play direct when attacking. Defenders will win more aerial challenges than attackers – they are moving forward onto the ball and can generally see ball and attacker at the same time whilst attackers are moving backwards and trying to assess two moving targets at the same time coming in opposite directions. Scottish teams generally play more direct than Celtic do. Therefore, we can expect Celtic to win well over 50% of all aerial challenges as most of them will be defensive actions from the Champions perspective.
All that being said, Motherwell are 2nd highest in total volume of aerial challenges versus Celtic with 42 per match. Remarkably Aberdeen are the most direct with 46 challenges per 90m. There isn’t much McInnes has not tried.
But back to the Steelmen. They invoke a lot of aerial challenges but are not particularly successful at them versus Celtic. Only 33% of such challenges are successful which is the 3rd lowest in the SPFL. For the record, Heart of Midlothian are the most effective with 39 per 90m and win rate of 49%.
Motherwell are very direct then, but not terribly successful at winning the subsequent challenge. In Ajer, Celtic have a player that has win 5.93 aerial challenges per 90m. He loses 0.95. Boyata won 4.36 and loses 0.86 per 90m. It is why Motherwell may again play Bowman and Main a bit wider to get them on the Celtic full backs with the initial long ball.
Playing long direct passes is high risk from a maintaining possession perspective but can be very rewarding when the pass and receipt are accurate. Clearly a successful long pass has the potential to take out (Pack) many of the opposition (high Impect). So, let’s look at the total number of pack events (passes and dribbles that take out at least one opponent) and their total Impect (value attributed to the players taken out the game: 3 for a defender, 2 for a midfielder and 1 for a forward) per side.
What this shows is that Motherwell (and Aberdeen) are the least successful in playing through Celtic (24 passes or dribble each per 90m that take out at least one Celt) and the total Impect of those actions (105 per 90m) are the lowest in the SPFL against the Champions. Again, for comparison, see how effective Hibernian have been compared to the rest of the league.
Of course, with a long ball game, you don’t need many passes to connect to potentially have possession in dangerous areas. So, we should look at the quality of the chances created from the possession Motherwell have had.
Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Assists (xA) give us insight into the quality of the chances created and attempted. Despite being in the relegation zone by all the passing metrics, Motherwell still manage to create better chances than the SPFL average creating 0.704 worth of chances compared to the SPFL average of 0.662 per 90m.
Those creative actions are not necessarily resulting in high quality chances though as Motherwell’s xG against Celtic is below the average SPFL.
In terms of laying the ground work for creating chances, there are a number of other metrics we can compare to assess attacking potency.
And it is here we find encouragement for Motherwell supporters. Compared to other SPFL sides against Celtic Motherwell put more successful crosses, have more shots both inside and outside the box, have more possession in the Celtic box and force the Celtic ‘keeper into more saves. Overall Motherwell create the same number of chances per 90m as the SPFL average.
Remember, this is not saying Motherwell out perform the SPFL on those metrics, but the SPFL AVERAGE versus Celtic. Still, despite their league position of 7th and despite playing against Celtic for 81 minutes with 10 players, they can create danger.
There is much talk of how aggressive Motherwell will be but does the data support the assertion they are a particularly physical side?
Err, not exactly. Motherwell win the lowest % of all challenges versus Celtic (43%) and the third lowest total number of challenges (36). The lowest challenge winners below the ‘Well against the Hoops are the two sides most deserving of the “easy to play against” mock – Hamilton Academical and Partick Thistle. Predictably Celtic find Heart of Midlothian the most difficult to play against physically.
Let’s now look at the Crime Count – the fouls committed and cards awarded against each SPFL team versus Celtic.
That’s a bit more like it! Motherwell are nestled in behind Aberdeen, Heart of Midlothian and The Rangers in terms of overall Crime Count albeit their total is inflated (falsely in my opinion) by the two red cards against Kipre. By volume of fouls, Motherwell have the equal 4th highest with an average of 14 per 90m. So, hardly the cluggers some would have you believe.
A footnote: notice how Hibernian manage to give Celtic their toughest tests without the need to kick the Champions off the park.
Celtic Threat vs Motherwell
Finally let’s consider how Celtic play against Motherwell compared to their performances against the other SPFL sides.
Celtic’s xG against Motherwell is lower than their average versus the rest of the SPFL. This is disappointing from the Hoops considering the 81 minutes of player advantage they have had. But the Hoops do create more chance than against other SPFL sides. Either way, with an average xG against Motherwell of 2.228 compared to Motherwell’s of 0.736 means Celtic have nearly a 2-goal expected advantage.
Celtic create 2 more chances, have 1.4 more shots in the box, 1 more successful cross and 7 more possessions in the box per 90m against Motherwell than the average for the SPFL. Probably not surprising again given the numerical advantage but also consistent with their respective league positions.
Summary
Motherwell play a very direct style but with some effectiveness. They have, marginally, been able to create more chances against Celtic than the average SPFL team despite having the least possession and completed passes. The physical nature of Motherwell’s play is over stated. They do not win challenges nor even foul Celtic any more than an average SPFL side.
From an attacking perspective the data shows Motherwell to be what they are – a mid-table SPFL side. There is no doubting their players will give the performances of their lives in the Final. If Celtic match the physicality and commitment, which they have done hitherto in Cup matches this season, then on average they are around 1.5 goals better per 90m.