Article by James Dailey (@jucojames)
Perhaps no Celtic player has been a better case study for human cognition than James Forrest. People often formulate impressions and opinions of players early in their tenure with the club, which creates a cognitive anchor of sorts. We homo sapiens all think we are rational, but our minds play tricks on us, as we’ve evolved with survival at the forefront rather than rationality. For example, the statistical probability of that rustling behind you in the forest being a bear or lion is very low, but our brains are engineered to flee just in case. Or, given the choice of being given a certain £1,000 vs a 50% gamble at a £5,000 payout, why do a vast majority of people take the certain £1,000? The rational thing to do is to calculate the statistical expected value and then take the higher amount: 0.50/5,000= £2,500.
I believe James Forrest has two very important cognitive anchors in the minds of many in our support. First, he has been at the club for so long that many developed opinions and impressions early in his tenure, when he was more injury prone and inconsistent. The resulting confirmation bias unfolds when he has a poor game and people “feel” those games more. Second, many in the Celtic support mentally weight performances against Rangers more heavily than other games.
I will not get into statistical definitions other than to say that Standard Deviation is one basic statistical measure to assess absolute levels of variability – basically a lower figure suggests more consistency. I’ve normalized Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Assists (xA) to be per 90 minutes:
Generally speaking, Forrest’s performance levels, as measured by xG and xA per 90 minutes of play, have been less volatile than the performance levels of Scott Sinclair during his incredible 2016/2017 season, and comparable to Patrick Roberts’ most productive stint at Celtic the same season.
Are we all “wrong” for believing that Forrest is inconsistent? I would say probably “yes”, but it is completely understandable. Forrest has been significantly less effective against Rangers and in a consistent way. Recency bias is the normal human tendency to place a greater mental weight on more recent events, and Forrest has produced literally zero xG and xA in the three games versus Rangers this season. In addition, he’s produced zero xG or xA in 10 and 7 of the 16 games, including 5 games with zero in both, in which he has played versus Rangers since their return to the Premiership!
Forrest is probably performing at the highest level of his career and in a relatively consistent way. Let’s hope that Forrest continues to be such a consistently good player – but maybe he could use a rest when we go to Ibrox in March.
Might wanna edit ‘return (sic) to the premiership, dude ?
Forrest, with the arrival of Rodgers, added a bit of much needed muscle & weigh to his physique- just not enough for the likes of Sevco/or sometimes even against the various other cloggers in the SPFL- nonetheless he’s improved significantly on that side of his game. But overall he simply doesn’t offer enough when we play Sevco, certain away games or away in Europe, mostly when the other team have the ball, and he fails to protect or support the guy behind him. Another element to Forrest’s game that’s a;ways been lacking is his poor reading of the game and his link-up play, but again that has improved significantly in the last few seasons, but overall it can still be fairly poor at times. It just shows how far down the pecking order Shved is when Forrest being injured, with no other options available, he still can’t get on the bench against Partick Thistle- is the guy really that bad? Is the Ukrainian league standard that poor? I think that would have given James some much needed competition and if Shved did well, maybe also offered Lenny more options going forward during a hard end of season slog. Apparently Kouassi was brought in by Rodgers and Congerton, hence his rejection by Lenny/ is it then the same for Bayo, Bain, Shved- have the been written off by the manager because of who signed them? Why then was Lewis Morgan given so many opportunities when an apparently superior player like Shved is given none? Its something I can’t understand at all.
Hello Devine – thank you for reading and commenting. I generally agree with your comments regarding Forrest – particularly his defensive cover. For example, he is literally the 2nd worse player in all of the Europa League this season in allowing Progressive Passes per 90 minutes (15). His value comes almost 100% from his offensive contributions, which is probably why he stands out so much when he does have an off game in attack. However, as Alan has so adeptly documented over time, his offensive production has been elite for a winger over the past few seasons, so I think his defensive deficiencies have been worth tolerating overall. Vs The Rangers? At this point I’d “shoot first and ask questions later.”
Not sure on Shved and palace intrigue, generally, other than the reports I’ve read/heard are that Shved has had a terrible time adjusting personally and had a similar problem during his first move abroad to Spain. Hopefully, he’s given enough time to mature emotionally.
As regards to Forrest for the Trees, yeah his performances this Season comes under
lost in the Forest showings James Forrest is going back to performance wise like
under Ronny-D & JC days instead of his more promising showings under BR who
got the better out of JF yes his decision making on the ball has improved however
JF has to be more direct & clinical in the final third he keeps over-playing the ball
JF is less direct when the opportunity more often than not is there in front of him
& Devine is right his tracking back is non-existant after all he is meant to be a
midfield player who is meant to sometimes help out in the midfield & defence &
not leaving those tasks to the rest of the team after all football is a team game
& everyone works as a unit & pulls their weight not goes posted missing when it’s
all hands to the pump situation so for JF it’s a case of yeah see the amount of
dribbling you are doing on the ball yeah well you need to also track back & put
in the same amount of challenges as well their is no room for passengers after
all we are not operating a Bus/ Coach/Train/Airoplane here we are operating
a football team where everyone plays & applies their part as for Marian Shved
I heard that he was getting rave reviews about his showing in Training Camp
Dubai however when he arrives back in Coldland he becomes a mystery not
even on the Bench nah their is something seriously wrong here either Lenny
does not like the young Man or his performances @ Lennoxtown is jinxed each
day or Shved has serious Psychological problems are some fanny’s trying to
put a curse on our Club or what if it’s not LG who has Psychological problems
its now Marian Shved surely the Ukrainian League can’t be that bad where
Shved had rave reviews in & scoring lots of goals to a non-existant entity in
Coldland is not right or logical whatever the problems are they need to be
sorted once & for all asap go-on-the-Bhoys