Forrest’s form is fantastic. Hitting the heights at International football as well, the winger’s stock has never been higher. Moving onwards towards 400 Celtic games I have plenty of data to go at to assess why this might be.
Forrest sits second in the Scoring Points table, 1 behind Edouard and 14 ahead of McGregor. He is on course for double digit goals (9) and assists (11) already. Last season saw double digit goals for the first time in his career (17) and also double digit assists (11).
He hadn’t scored for Scotland in seven seasons of international football spanning 24 matches, He then produced 5 goals in 99 minutes becoming the first Celt to score a hat trick for Scotland in 110 years (the SFA will be very proud of that).
With the wealth of data at hand, for Celtic at least, it must be obvious what he is doing better / more of / differently, right?
As a reminder I have detailed data moving into my fifth season. I have vastly extended into more advanced stats over the last two seasons (expected goals, assists and packing data).
The 17 goals he scored was more than he had achieved in the previous three seasons combined. He must be taking more shots then, surely?
Eh, not really. His shot rate is up slightly on the last two seasons (when he scored 25 goals) but down on the two prior seasons (when he scored 6 goals). The number of shots he is getting on target is also lower this season (0.87) than all but one of the previous 5 seasons. His best accuracy rate was 14/15 getting 1.01 shots on target per 90m and returning 4 goals.
That suggests shot selection is improving – he must be taking better quality shots.
That is where Expected Goals comes in. I only have data for the last two seasons and his xG is 0.371 per 90m which is an improvement on last seasons 0.31 per 90m.
He is outperforming that though. Forrest’s current scoring rate is 0.44 goals per 90m which suggests he may see a regression back towards his xG figure.
And it’s a similar story when we look at chances created. There is an uplift in Expected Assists on last season (up from 0.26 per 90m to 0.304 per 90m). But he is actually creating less chances (2.11 per 90m as opposed to 2.33 per 90m last season).
Forrest is passing about the same amount – around 32 completed passes per 90m at 84% accuracy. His ability to receive forward passes is slightly down on last season. And he is completing less dribbles – 1.26 per 90m compared to 1.67b last season.
But there is evidence in all that of a sharpening of skills in the final third. Both xG and xA up but not dramatically, and an increase in possessions in the opposition box from 4.65 per 90m to 4.99 – again slight.
What is perhaps revealing is that he is involved in less on field actions than he used to be. In 14/15 he averaged 61.35 actions per 90m and that is now down to 48.49. That suggests a player with more attacking duties as the more forward you play the less actions you tend to be involved in. Supporting this is a decrease in Defensive Action Success rate from 32% too 27% this season. In short, he is doing less defending.
In summary Forrest appears to be going through, in miniature, what Ronaldo has recently gone through in redefining his role. Forrest appears to be undertaking a more attacking role as Celtic’s 4-2-3-1 morphs into more of a 4-3-3. He is getting slightly more attacking opportunities in dangerous areas, and doing slightly less defending.
What is also true is that he is having a great run of things going well for him. His Expected Scoring Contribution is 0.675 goals and assists per 90m but he is achieving 0.97 goals and assists per 90m. You’d expect that to regress to the expected value over time.
But I’ll leave you with the one glaring statistic that has changed over the last five seasons for Forrest and might help explain his improving form. Simply, he is playing more. Look at his average minutes completed per 90m:
He only averaged 52 minutes playing time per appearance in 14/15 and this has grown to 77 minutes average this season. Only McGregor of the forward players has higher this season. Playing more regularly and with longer shifts builds rhythm and confidence. Better decision making and execution will no doubt follow.
Excellent analytical work – again.
Does it help to explain that “Form” is more than a present streak or a rise in confidence that a player is gong through?
Do numbers like this prove that form is really down to a change in formation/tactics thus unlocking the full potential of individuals?
I’d imagine that this type of analysis is also studied by coaching team members.
Did the USSR not use a type of computer program to select players to fit a system used by their national side in the 70s/80s? Players that did not shine anywhere near as much out with the national side set-up?