The final round of matches before the dry World Cup in Qatar!
SPFL week 15 saw Celtic host Ross County and St Mirren host The Rangers.
As ever, the Yorkshire Whistler is here to adjudicate on the big calls.
The impact of that call being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
12/11/22 Celtic vs Ross County
Incident 1
| Referee | David Munro |
| Game Minute | 49th |
| Incident | Ball hits O’Riley near the box |
| Outcome | Penalty to Ross County |
| Evidence | (2) Celtic 2-1 Ross County | Celtic Take 9 Point Lead Into Winter Break | cinch Premiership – YouTube
1:30 |
Incident 2
| Referee | David Munro |
| Game Minute | 54th |
| Incident | Ralston goes down in the box |
| Outcome | No Decision |
| Evidence | (2) Celtic 2-1 Ross County | Celtic Take 9 Point Lead Into Winter Break | cinch Premiership – YouTube
2:33 |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Ralston goes down in the area
Initial on-field decision: No foul committed After a high ball into the box, Ralston feels contact in his back and throws himself into the air, before claiming a foul has been committed. I have little sympathy for the Celtic player here. I believe he is trying to buy a penalty here and his exaggerated jump and fall to the ground is not convincing anyone. The Ross County defender has eyes only on the ball. His arms come out very slightly, certainly not enough to constitute a push or infringement of any kind. The referee correctly, in my opinion, waves away the penalty appeal. Verdict: Correct decision to not award the foul |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
12/11/22 St Mirren vs The Rangers
Incident 1
| Referee | Kevin Clancy |
| Game Minute | 2nd |
| Incident | Ayunga goes down in the box |
| Outcome | No decision |
| Evidence | https://twitter.com/CairtersSMFC/status/1591488540902408193?s=20&t=RghwQ2Zj1ybyKOcvpj-Fag |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Ayunga is tackled by Sands
Initial on-field decision: Sands goes to clear the ball and Ayunga goes to the ground, claiming to be fouled. Having only seen this incident in slowed-down, frame-by-frame analysis, I would suspect in real time this incident looks even less of a foul than the video replay images paint. Sands has eyes on the ball and is standing in front of Ayunga as he goes to strike the ball. Ayunga has no chance of winning or playing the ball looking at the distance he is from the ball and simply pokes his leg toward Sands, trying to interrupt his clearance. Not all contact translates as a foul and I believe this passage of play, is this kind of incident. For me, no foul was committed. Verdict: Correct decision not to award the foul. |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 2
| Referee | Kevin Clancy |
| Game Minute | 84th |
| Incident | Kent goes down in the box |
| Outcome | After review penalty to TRFC |
| Evidence | (2) St Mirren 1-1 Rangers | Late Tavernier Penalty Rescues Point | cinch Premiership – YouTube
2:48 |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Kent goes down in the box
Initial on-field decision: Penalty awarded to Rangers Kent evades one tackle and cuts inside before another St Mirren defender stretches to make a tackle and Kent is sent tumbling to the floor. The on-field referee initially decides no foul has been committed and actually books Kent for simulation. However, after a VAR review, the penalty is awarded, and the yellow card is rescinded. For me, this is a positive example of how and why VAR should be implemented. At speed, it is difficult for the referee to be sure of what contact if any is made, and he goes with the initial gut instinct that there was not any contact. However, the replay footage does show that the defender does collide with Kent’s right knee and that a foul has been committed. Verdict: Correct decision to award the penalty kick |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
For Celtic, the instance of honest mistakes penalising the club incorrectly has increased since the introduction of the VAR processes. Which is mildly amazing.
I’m sure it’ll all settle down and even itself out.
With the contentious use of protocols and procedures leading to Jota’s goal being ruled out, a change to the overall xPts picture for the season:
Based on the in-match game state when the decisions were made (or not made), The Rangers have 1.08 MORE points than expected due to the cumulative impact of Honest Mistakes and Celtic 3.87 LESS.
A swing of 4.95 xPts. This is around the same differential for the WHOLE of last season.
Celtic lead by nine points after 15 matches.
Think your ‘Honest Mistakes’ is brilliant,
but, just one question, have you got a break down of ‘Honest Mistakes’ by referee? Just think that would make for really interesting reading?
Yes i did one at the end of last season which is searchable on the site and will do again at then end of this season
10 points ahead now. Nice! ?
lol -because of the goal difference in my mind it is 10!
Thanks and corrected!
Honest mistakes?
Let’s be straightforward and honest about these ongoing dodgy decisions going against Celtic. Now that the SFA/SPFL havea new “tool” to help them use against Celtic, they are using it to the fullest.
Let’s call this what ir really is! It is blatant anti-Celtic corruption by the powers that be.
Nothing more, nothing less.
Correct ! correct ! and Correct.
Correct !
The SFA has always had a culture of either ex Rangers men or present Rangers men influencing what goes on in our league.
Not to mention the judiciary. “no sporting advantage” my erse.
I know it’s virtually ten points because of the large goal difference but, Alan, it’s still “only” nine as yet!
Aye because of the GD it’s 10 and no one will persuade me otherwise ?
Alan, Celtic lead by 9pts but with superior goal difference. Unfortunately not the 10pts stated.
I agree with all of the Yorkshire Whistlers calls today.
Good analyses & no arguments with any of them.
The new batch of referees are finding still finding their feet (whatever that amounts to for each of them) & they are under additional scrutiny over the VAR system. As a Celtic fan it seems we are on the receiving end twice over – we get awarded fewer penalties than everyone else (maybe thats why we miss them so much, just out of practice) & we get more penalties dodgy awarded against us. I suppose there’s a third class of persecution – offsides…
I get the impression that the refs are all in examination mode. During big tournaments the refs always play exactly by the book, so if there is the slightest doubt about a foul then they give it etc. Our refs seem to be doing that with the VAR. We often used to say that refs lacked common sense & Im afraid we seem to have drifted back to those days (if we ever left them).
The other thing is that were all familiar with keyboard warriors who talk big & make decisions when theyre nowhere near the action. I wonder if the VAR official is guilty of some of that.
What is his brief anyway? It should be if there is a “clear & obvious error” by the ref. but there seems to such inconsistency not only between officials & matches but within matches, as we saw at Tynecastle.
As fans we howl & blame bias & conspiracies but in this day & age are we really assuming that such blatant evidence of bias could stand close scrutiny? In the past, the mysterious “in the opinion of the referee” masked many injustices & fed multiple conspiracies, but with the introduction of a system designed to improve decision making & increase transparency could “conspirators” really hope to continue their evil work in plain sight?
As I have gotten older I have become a cockup rather than conspiracy person.
There is something wrong in the land of Referees in Scotland. Should they be full time & paid a handsome salary? I think so, but who should pay? The clubs ultimately, so that means the fans I suppose.
We can only compare to what occurs in the top division in England & while they have some blips, they just do not have the horror games that we’ve hade to endure in Scotland in a few short months.
All of this begs the question anyway – how bad was the refereeing in Scotland before VAR?
Awful is the answer.
Collum’s award of a penalty to Aberdeen last week was a disgrace & there was one other last week where the goalie clearly got the ball and was penalized.
Part time referees are being exposed as what they are, poorly trained amateurs making rulings in a game that has largely left them behind. The introduction of high tech wizardry to help them make a decision only exposes their poor training & inept game management.
I seriously do not thin that there is a particular bias against Celtic (I await a slaughtering). I see that all fans complain of referees decisions & injustices & when I look at them, there is merit in many of their complaints.
Fans of each club whine about bias against our own teams, but the issue is bigger & broader than that.
The problem is within the SFA & the training & consistency of performance of referees in Scotland.
Maybe whining football fans is a permanent feature but VAR cockups are not.
The English Premier League has shown us how this should work & how fans learn to accept it.
Fans in Scotland are learning to distrust it & those who operate it.
Did the Yorkshire referee watch the whole game? He chastises Ralston for going down too easily looking for a penalty. During the whole game any time a Ross County hammer thrower was touched in the back by a Celtic player they dived to the ground as if a sniper had shot them. The referee gave them a foul. No different from Ralston. So a slight push in the back outside the box is a foul but inside it’s not. Referees must be consistent and not change ‘their’ rules to suit their agenda.
I doubt it as he has his own life to live! ?
I doubt it as he has his own life to live! ?
You might be interested in this suggestion that would change the refereeing culture and lead to more professional refereeing and higher pay from getting UEFA matches.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1FWtVWYTpYO87py1mDr2WipKUlPYm3WdW/edit
The second piece on Licensing Service has been largely addressed by new UEFA FSR (Financial Sustainability Regulations) that limits spend on playing squad to a % of football earned income . 90% then 80% and settling at 70% after 3 seasons.
Retty much what I expected and 100% what I thought of the incidents too. Shame the keeper picking the ball up again not mentioned, but maybe hard to calculate impact?
For what it’s worth (not much) I have my own theory re the disparity between penalties we get and penalties Ibrox get. And it’s not really anything to do with referees. It was, ironically, the Kent penalty incident where everything clicked for me. Like the YH I don’t think he dived and there was contact. But from the moment he got the ball he was looking for a penalty. As he passes the defender he does put his leg out to get caught. Clever play? Cynical? Whatever… It spurred my thoughts.
They get so many penalties because when they’re attacking they’re not confident they’ll score. Their mindset is to get in the box and go down. Actually, go down anywhere on the pitch. Not cheating per se, as there usually is contact. But it’s exaggerated to cause the fall and win the foul. With celtic the players are going on even when caught late, trying to keep going. Which hurts us at times and benefits us at others. Certainly of the two schools I prefer our approach.
But with Ibrox, they will go down for minimal contact in the hopes of a set piece. And when in the box will put themselves in a foul able situation. To me it shows low confidence in their open play. And it’s something I’ve seen from teams like Livingston etc against us. The team supposedly challenging us for the title shouldn’t be needing to resort to these tactics. Especially against lower rated teams.
The VAR decisions against us have been baffling at times, but I don’t normally watch the other lot (had a friend over, it was raining so we watched all the games) and this was a bit of an eye opener to me. I don’t think it’s the refs.
Could you have included the “foul” given against O’Riley for a perfectly timed tackle before releasing kyogo for a one on one the referee eagerly blew a foul in the same whistle already in the mouth manner as the penalty kick.
We could / should have gone 1-0 up early in the game which would have changed the entire shape of the game that followed
There are multiple of these lesser talked about moments in every game we play that should be included