A catch up from game week eight. In which The Rangers travelled to Heart of Midlothian in a clash of the European group participants, and Celtic hosted in form Motherwell.
As usual, plenty of talking points regarding the big calls.
The impact of that call being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
01/10/22 Hearts vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee | Steven McLean |
Game Minute | 5th |
Incident | Cochrane intercepts ball in Hearts’ box |
Outcome | No decision |
Evidence | Hearts 0-4 Rangers | Rangers With Convincing Away Win | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 0:15 |
Incident 2
Referee | Steven McLean |
Game Minute | 39th |
Incident | Devlin challenges Matondo |
Outcome | Foul to TRFC and Red Card for Devlin |
Evidence | Hearts 0-4 Rangers | Rangers With Convincing Away Win | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 2:18 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Devlin challenges Matondo
Initial on field decision: Foul to Rangers, red card shown to Devlin Very naughty challenge here. Looks worse each time on review. The Hearts player runs from distance and decides he’s going to stamp down at the ball/Rangers players leg. Appears to be a frustrated challenge. Clearly the stamp sees his studs drill into Rangers player lower ankle. Clearly this meets sending off criteria for serious foul play: a tackle with excessive force/brutality or endangers players safety. Verdict: Correct decision to issue the red card |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 3
Referee | Steven McLean |
Game Minute | 45th |
Incident | Arfield scores for TRFC |
Outcome | Foul to Hearts on Gordon and free kick awarded; goal disallowed |
Evidence | Hearts 0-4 Rangers | Rangers With Convincing Away Win | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 2:45 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Arfield has goal disallowed for a foul on Gordon
Initial on field decision: Free kick awarded to Hearts. This decision is made immediately after Gordon has come to stretch and attempt to claim a cross. You can argue that Gordon had already spilt the ball, but just before the Rangers player can stab the loose ball home, a foul is committed by his team mate. His run barges straight into the path of the keeper. Regardless of whether Gordon would have blocked the resulting shot, I feel the foul was committed first and rest comfortable with the decision to award the free kick. Verdict: Correct decision |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
01/10/22 Celtic vs Motherwell
Incident 1
Referee | John Beaton |
Game Minute | 73rd |
Incident | Lamie blocks Abada cross |
Outcome | No decision |
Evidence | Celtic 2-1 Motherwell | Reo Hatate’s Wonder Strike Seals The Win | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 3:10 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Lamie blocks Abada cross
Initial on field decision: No foul committed Abada breaks down flank and at close range to Lamie, fires ball into the box. Lamie is doing what any defender would do and close down and attempts to block cross. In Lamie’s defence the ball is fired at close proximity but what I can’t justify is why his arm is extended behind him as he is moving forward to block the cross. This is not an attempt to interfere with a promising attack but rather an accidental handball, so no 2nd yellow card should have been produced in this instance. However, I feel the extended arm did meet the criteria of making Lamie’s body shape unnaturally larger and this could not be justified by his expected movement/situation. Verdict: Incorrect decision. Hand ball and penalty kick expected outcome. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
Celtic -0.2 xPts
Reminder: Had Celtic scored when already 2-1 in the 73rd minute it would have added 0.25 to their xPts. We multiply this by the odds of scoring the resulting penalty (0.79) to get the final xPts. |
Incident 2
Referee | John Beaton |
Game Minute | 89th |
Incident | McGregor fouls Tierney |
Outcome | Free kick to Motherwell and straight Red Card for McGregor |
Evidence | Celtic 2-1 Motherwell | Reo Hatate’s Wonder Strike Seals The Win | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 4:10 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | McGregor fouls Tierney
Initial on field decision: Foul to Motherwell and red card shown to McGregor. As Celtic attempt to play out from back, McGregor gets sold short by a team mates pass and as a result McGregor looks like he will get beaten to the ball by the Motherwell forward. There is a coming together and McGregor is adjudged to have deliberately impeded the player and so is sent off for a DOGSO (denial of obvious goal scoring opportunity) On review I believe the correct decision is made. As the players come together it is the Motherwell player that appears to have won the race. As expected, we see McGregor make contact attempting to win the race, but as soon as he uses first his left arm, then his right arm to tug the Motherwell player back, the foul is committed. McGregor’s immediate reaction also confirms this incident. He makes no attempt to remonstrate with referee. but rather has a go at his team mate for making the poor pass. Verdict: Correct decision to issue the red card |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
Cammy Devlin certainly helped The Rangers navigate a tricky away fixture with his ill-judged but correctly awarded Red Card.
Meanwhile an equally gnarly home win for Celtic would have been a lot easier with a penalty that was “missed”.
Update to the overall picture:
Based on the in-match game state when the decisions were made (or not made), The Rangers have 0.76 MORE points than expected due to the cumulative impact of Honest Mistakes and Celtic 0.55 LESS.
Celtic led by two points after eight matches.
Jim says
Accidental handball with his hand extended behind him?. He clearly brings his hand in front of himself and up to at least head height, and moves it into the path of the ball, regardless of how close or hard the ball was hit. Bizarre interpretation!.
Dando says
Exact same incident in the CL Spurs game, Penalty awarded instantly..
HH
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Those at the top of the North Stand could apparently see it very clearly