When Celtic played FC Astana in the Champions League Third Qualifying Round, 1st leg in season 2016/17, it was Rodgers’ third game in charge. Every match had seen a different formation as he wrestled injuries, especially to defenders. Sinclair had not arrived and Toure was working up to match fitness.
The Bhoys had struggled in the heat on the council park standard artificial surface in Gibraltar. Travelling 1/3rd of the way around the world for another hot, artificial experience in Kazakhstan 14 days later proved no less taxing. In a reverse of the current tie, the away leg came first.
FC Astana 1, Celtic 1 (26th July 2016)
Celtic lined up accordingly:
The 4-4-2 formation saw Armstrong tuck in from the left, with McGregor and Brown outnumbered by Astana’s 4-3-1-2. When out of possession, their attacking central midfielder, Cañas, sat on Brown. Roberts provided width right, and it was instructive to remember Griffiths and Dembele did start together albeit Griffiths slightly more withdrawn. Griffiths and Dembele completed 9 passes between them in the first half, recording just 26 possessions across them both. Dembele had a fairly fruitless evening, losing possession 7 times, 3 unsuccessful dribbles and 2 shots off target. He was also brought down for a strong penalty claim in the first half.
Astana played a very traditional British game with big diagonals, and focussing on set plays. It was from such a corner that they took the lead through Logvinenko. The goal came as a culmination of errors from O’Connell and Gordon.
Both players suffered from trying too hard to do something positive. O’Connell thought he could cut out the corner, left the goal scorer and the ball went over him. Spooked perhaps by the huge gap in front of him, Gordon charged out leaving the centre of the goal unguarded.
O’Connell and Ambrose are the most error prone defenders I have recorded, and there were skittish moments throughout resulting in Astana chances. In total 8 defensive errors were given up by Celtic with the two centre backs responsible for half of them. By way of context, Celtic averaged 3.3 defensive errors per 90m last season.
Rodgers started to change the formation by degrees from the 62nd minute. The second half had become very open and there was as much chance of losing a second goal as capturing an away goal. Bitton for Dembele was, perhaps, uncharacteristically cautious from Rodgers but had the immediate effect of increasing Celtic control. In 28 minutes, Bitton completed 28 passes, losing the ball 3 times. This is more passes than 5 of the starters. He also won 5 out of 7 challenges.
With the game being brought under greater control, attacking balance was introduced with Forrest and Rogic for Armstrong and McGregor. Characteristically of Rodgers early days, the substitutions each improved the performance by degree. Although Celtic had rarely threatened, Astana were undone by their own petard. A long diagonal from Tierney was not abandoned by Roberts (*sigh*) and he won the ball on the goal line rolling back to Griffiths, who with the chance to cut in on his left foot, did the needful. 1-1. It was Celtic’s only shot on target. Celtic never again had as few shots on target away from home all season even managing 2 at Barcelona.
Astana led Celtic 1.47 to 0.18 by xG – only in Hapoel Be’er Sheva and Barcelona did Celtic have such a negative Expected Goal disparity.
Celtic dominated possession with 56% (Astana gave the ball away 122 times – only Hamilton Academical with 126 gave it away more). Being direct and then losing possession did not worry them. If I look across the team stats for that season, playing away to Astana should be like playing away to our better domestic opponents on their good day. It is not Barcelona or Manchester City away. I appreciate that sounds glib, but without listing reams of numbers, the possession, passing, chance creating, shot creation are all like a tough game in Aberdeen.
Celtic 2, FC Astana 1 (3rd August 2016)
For the 2nd leg, Celtic’s next game, Rodgers tried a different formation again, going 4-3-3:
Fielding two teenagers and a twenty-year-old in defence for such an important tie is one reason Rodgers had recruited Toure, but he was only able to start on the bench. Dembele had not enjoyed the away game and it was Griffiths who led the line. In the days when Celtic had a choice!
Astana went with only one change but a more conservative 4-5-1.
An early blow saw Roberts go off injured on 31 minutes. The replacement, Johansen, was noticeably uninvolved in the play by his standards. In 14 minutes of the first half he attempted 2 passes and committed a foul. Not quite the dynamic all action midfielder under Deila.
With Astana minds perhaps tiring due to the penal time zone difference, pressure grew as the half ended culminating on a loss of concentration and Tierney nipping in to steal the ball in the box and being clumsily brought down. Griffiths despatched the penalty on 45 minutes.
Two Astana players were booked for arguing over the penalty hinting at a fragility of temperament.
In the second half Celtic came out attacking once more, with 3 efforts at goal in the first 3 minutes of the half. And then the game went a bit quiet, and nerves seemed to infect the crowd as the hour mark came. Rodgers is very perceptive to momentum shifts, and sensing something needed to be done to wrestle control back and inject urgency. Toure came on for his debut to replace Armstrong, and Celtic set up 3-5-2.
As Celtic were adjusting to the shape change (Janko and Tierney pushed up and Forrest floated free behind Griffiths) the classic underdog death strike. A long ball forward looked like it was going to find the forward running behind the unorganised back three, so Gordon again proactively rushed out. He headed the ball back to a central position, and Ibraimi remarkably found the net from near 40 yards. It was their second shot on target but not untypical of what can happen in Europe when you make mistakes.
The Celtic European nerve experience had surfaced again. A further positive substitution, bringing on Dembele for Forrest saw overall control retained but Astana seemed happy to take their chances in extra time. But like in the first leg, a long ball from Lustig was rescued by Dembele’s strength. He played a 1-2 with Griffiths before being tripped in the box in the last minute. Not having scored for Celtic, Dembele stepped up, in his own time, to convincingly win the tie.
In the furore two Astana players were shown their second yellow cards, and sent off. In all nine yellow cards were shown. A definite discipline issue.
In a reverse of the 1st leg, Celtic’s xG was 2.68 to 0.28. This is a similar difference seen in home wins against Allioa Athletic and Motherwell. Celtic gave away 100 passes in this game, their highest total at home of the season but claimed 69% possession. Managing 7 shots on target, this is bang on the average for Celtic at home in 2016/17. Similarly, 5 good chances were created as per the season average. Another 7 defensive errors were chalked up in this match, highest of the season at home by 2 – Gordon and Armstrong were both credited with 2. Astana’s attacking and possession stats are in line with an average SPFL side.
Conclusion
Eight of Astana’s starting line up from 2016/17 are still at the club. It will be a familiar opposition. Celtic will not be tinkering as they were in the early days of Rodgers. And won’t have Janko, Ambrose, O’Connell in defence. Neither will Celtic have the choice to bring Dembele off the bench nor start Roberts. But this should be a calmer, more resilient and confident Celtic, comfortable in their skin. Errors will be punished again however, Celtic are averaging just over 2 a game. There were 15 defensive errors across 2 games against Astana last season. Game face on.
