“We need a right back” has become a familiar refrain from the Celtic support in recent times. The January window delivered a Borussia Dortmund player capped regularly at age grade levels for Germany, and for whom the Westphalians paid over £6m to acquire. Jeremy Toljan started brightly but with Lennon back in the manager’s seat, it may be that Lustig, whom Lennon brought to Celtic in 2012, has the right back position again.
How do the performance numbers compare?
Defending
Two key composite metrics for defending:
- Possession Won / Lost compares defensive event outcomes in terms of did Celtic maintain possession as a result of the action.
- Defensive Action Success Rate (DASR) considers a range of defensive actions and shows what % of them were successfully won.
The contrast in these key metrics is quite stark and what I’d expect between a central defender and a full back, not two full backs. Lustig is by some distance the more effective defender with a 19% higher DASR and 20% better possession win ratio.
Toljan wins more tackles than the Swede (3.07 per 90m compared to 2.12) but also loses more (2.16 per 90m and 0.43). The German makes many more tackles. Which may not be a good thing. I am a fan of the old maxim about Baresi barely needing to make a tackle due to his expert positioning.
Clearly there isn’t a metric for “positioning”, but we can infer as above. Toljan commits 1.59 fouls per 90m compared to 0.86 by Lustig. Looking at the 5 yellow cards and 1 red card he has racked up in only 791 minutes they are mainly due to being caught on the wrong side of attackers or letting attackers run off him. Lustig only averages 0.03 cards per 90m compared to 0.68 for Toljan. The young German seems to lack concentration and end up in poor positions.
The larger, slower and older Lustig manages to execute more interceptions than Toljan (2.49 to 1.48 per 90m). Furthermore, the Swede blocks more crosses into the box (0.6 to 0.33 per 90m). Even though Lustig misses more blocks (0.33 to 0.11 per 90m) the wider point is he is there to attempt the block. That is, he is in the right position.
Toljan both wins the ball back more often in the defensive third (1.82 to 0.9 per 90m) and loses possession in his own defensive third more often (1.14 to 0.76 per 90m).
It is no surprise the 7cm taller Swede is far more successful in aerial challenges winning 3.61 per 90m compared to 0.61 for Toljan.
All in, the Celtic stalwart Lustig has a clear advantage defensively.
Attacking
Of course, a Celtic full back has attacking duties especially domestically.
Using simple passing stats, Lustig completes 87% and Toljan 86% of all passes. But assessing Packing – the ability to pass and receive the ball where that pass takes opponents out the game – provides deeper context.
Lustig is a far more effective distributor from the back. He completes 7.23 passes per 90m that take opponents out the game compared to 5.12 by the German. But considering the other side of that transaction, receiving the ball, Toljan receives 7.62 pack passes per 90m compared to 4.08 for Lustig. Toljan is more effective making forward runs into space with his superior pace. This suggests Toljan may be more suited to a wing back role.
Indeed, the German attempts slightly more crosses (3.53 to 3.18 per 90m) but Lustig is more accurate completing 0.63 crosses per 90m compared to only 0.11 by Toljan.
The Dortmund player actually created more chances (1.25 to 1.19 per 90m) but the Swede has more assists (0.23 to 0.11 per 90m). Indeed, Lustig’s Expected Assist per 90m (measuring the quality of the chances he creates) is 0.174 to 0.143.
Toljan gets into the opposition penalty area more often (1.82 to 1.43 per 90m) but Lustig is more successful in providing passes into the Danger Zone (0.7 to 0.34 per 90m).
All the above suggests to me that Toljan is a bit careless in possession. He lacks clarity in his final distribution. Lustig on the other hand is under rated as a distributor from deep areas. Whilst lacking the pace to drive forward as a pseudo winger, he is more measured in his final pass.
Conclusion
Another article for another day will show that Lustig’s performance levels are declining. However, 32-year-old regressing Lustig warrants selection over the 24-year-old expensive German. Toljan may improve and Lustig may further regress, but it would be a huge punt by Celtic to make the deal permanent in the summer. In the mean time ever faithful Lustig looks like he deserves his place.
And for Celtic fans we are back where we started “We need a right back”.
Toljan looks an ordinary player. Another average looking recruit made during the rats term in charge
Good to see something positive regarding Lustig’s day in day out solid performance for Celtic. Here is another goals scored
good joke, consistency and lustig in the same sentence! Dude has been crap for years and can barely run, don’t forget cost us a place in the champions league with his performances and almost cost us against Leipzig if it wasn’t for Edouard scoring from kick off. Bye Bye Lustig
We lose more goals when ML plays. Remember ,NFL advised his Hibs players to target ML as he was the weakness link. Maybe see the best of JT when he plays alongside a settled back four. We are out of CL because ML didn’t tackle his man or stop the crosses coming in. Most of ML’s passes go back or sideways or to the opposition. JT goes forward trying to get us up the park. Young Ralston needs a run in the team when he is fit. A settled back four is imperative.
As ever, well done on taking the time to conduct this analysis. Just curious what the respective sample sizes are?
It’s strange, and this is often the case with football, but I intuitively feel like Lustig is much poorer in possession. Particularly going forward, when he looks to play passes inside to a midfielder, it ‘feels’ to me like he gives the ball away far too often. I also – again, intuitively – feel like he far too often floats in a poor cross from deep because he has run out of ideas. But just shows you, sometimes what you think you see on the field is not backed up by objective analysis.
I know it would be a smaller sample size again, but I’d love to see similar data for Ralston? I feel he’s quicker than Lustig, he’s better in the air than Toljan, and he’s better in the tackle and in possession than either of them – but again, may just be my subjective interpretation!
Lustig has played 2714 mins, Toljan 791.
Lustig’s long passing is underrated – of course because he tries more longer passes, more will be unsuccessful. Only (strangely) Ralston and Izaguirre amongst defenders complete more Pack Passes than Lustig this season.
I agree Lustig’s long passing in terms of looking up, finding a runner/shower, and executing – yes, he’s good. But I think he crosses from poor areas, and when he pushes forward, I feel like his passes inside to midfielders are intercepted far too often. As ever, though, this is my subjective opinion without having done the analysis!
Has Ralston generated enough minutes for a fair comparison?
As LennyK states, it would be good to see how KT compares – I’ve almost begun to think of him as the gold standard full back against whom all others should be judged!
I do have decent data for Ralston and am thinking of another right back special. Short answer – even comparing Ralston Lustig remains undervalued by some but regressing .
Tierney is actually a difficult comparator. Reason being his role is highly specific. He attacks way more than any defender leading to skewing challenges stats in particular
I agree with Martin that sample size would be beneficial. I also think that Toljan is too cautious to be a wing back, he simply doesn’t exploit wide spaces to the bye line and tends to pass back and sideways.
Would it be possible to include KT’s stats as well?
Not done a Tierney article this season. Will get around to it!
A similar conclusion from footbalscotland:
https://www.footballscotland.co.uk/spfl/scottish-premiership/jeremy-toljan-mikael-lustig-celtics-15958858
Your last sentence sums it up!!
Nice to see you back!
Remember there are lies,damned lies and statistics
I’d never heard that saying before. Do expand?