By James Dailey
I think the answer to this question is dependent upon the “what for” which Weissman is expected to be good enough. If the answer is for a 2nd striker to be played with Edouard and/or be a fill in for Edouard in domestic games, then I think that is a reasonable expectation. If the expectation that he will “replace” Edouard and lead Celtic’s line and compete at a high standard in Europe, then I believe that is likely to be unreasonable.
Let us start with comparing the heatmaps of Edouard with Weissman for the 2019-2020 season. They appear to compliment each other well with regards to positional tendencies, which is something I believe is a big positive in capitalizing on Edouard’s incredible talents. Griffiths offered a heatmap somewhat like Weissman, but with a lot less volume and sample size.
Weissman’s overall performance record for the 2019-2020 season appears tremendous on the surface. He scored 31 goals between the Austrian Bundesliga and six Europa League group stage games in a total of 3,232 minutes. However, if I exclude his three successful penalty goals, then he scored 28 goals on total non-penalty xG of 19.66. That is a very good total of about 0.55 xG per 90 minutes, but he did outperform his xG by a significant margin.
One Hit Wonder?
Weissman’s track record prior to this past season was very limited- just 1,450 minutes in the Israeli top-flight in 2018-2019 and 1,115 in 2017-2018. He will turn 25 in the upcoming season, so I believe it is reasonable to question whether this past season was Weissman being a late developer or whether he enjoyed some “luck.” I do not have a strong opinion on either – only that a single good season at age 24 introduces the risk that he enjoyed good fortune, which may not endure at the same level.
The next thing I did to try and dig into Weissman’s performance level was to look at his output versus different levels of competition. To put this simply, I tried to create a “strength of schedule” adjustment for his level of performance. For example, I would want to know if his output was like a Celtic striker who scored a disproportionate percentage of his goals versus Hamilton and Ross County rather than against Rangers and Aberdeen.
Relative Relevance
I used FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index to adjust the xG output of Weissman, Edouard, and Griffiths for their domestic league and Europa League opponents. I did this in two ways: using the overall SPI ranking index and adjusting based only on each teams’ defensive ranking. I believe the results are informative.
First a little bit of information on the Austrian League versus Scotland. The UEFA country coefficient has Austria ranked 12th and Scotland 14th. However, Austria is as close to Belgium at 8th as Scotland is to Austria.
Weissman’s current team, Wolfsberg, is ranked 125 which compares to Rangers at 127. Rapid Vienna is 122 and Salzburg is all the way up at 15 compared to Celtic at 49. Importantly, the Austrian league has 8 teams ranked above Aberdeen overall, while Scotland has 5 teams ranked lower than Austria’s lowest. This kind of variance of dispersion of a league’s quality is why I believe some sort of quality of opponent analysis can be helpful.
Here I compare the unadjusted and adjusted xG for each player in only their domestic minutes for the 2019-2020 season. It is important to keep in mind that the adjusted stats should be thought of on a relative basis – the only way Edouard’s SPI Adjusted xG would be close to his Unadjusted would be if he played 100% of his games against Manchester City, Bayern Munich, and Liverpool, for example.
What we see with this adjusted data is that Edouard’s output was even better compared to Weissman when quality of opponents and quality of the opponents’ defense. We also see that Griffiths feasted on lower quality teams and opponents on a relative basis.
Now let us look at how Edouard and Weissman performed against higher quality opponents in the Europa League:
Like Weissman’s 6 group stage games, Edouard’s sample includes 6 games, as he missed the second game versus Rennes to injury and did not play in the second versus Cluj. His sample does include the two games versus Copenhagen. Wolfsberg played as the 4th seed in their group, so Weissman faced each of the following twice: Roma, Borussia M’gladbach, and Istanbul Ba?ak?ehir. Romania is not covered in the SPI index, so I had to estimate Cluj’s ranking, which I placed next to AEK Athens.
This metric makes Weissman look better in Europe on a relative basis, as he faced a little higher quality of opponent overall. One thing to remember is that the SPI is updated regularly, and Lazio’s recent run of poor form has resulted in a significant drop in the index. Edouard still retains a significant margin – just not “twice as good.”
Summary
An inherent risk with Weissman is the lack of sample size. As we saw with the Shved transfer, basic performance statistics can mask potential underlying issues. As opposed to Shved, Weissman holds up as a good player when looking at his advanced stats, but just not as good as 31 goals this past season may suggest. A major strength he has displayed has been the ability to accrue high quality chances and putting shots on target at a high rate. Basically, he gets into dangerous positions inside the box and in front of goal.
Weissman is just 5 feet 9 inches tall and a significant number of his goals 31 this past season were what I would call “scrappy.” That kind of striker can offer significant value, but I do not think we should expect a great deal of creativity or a major difference maker in Europe.
However, with the latest report of fitness issues for Griffiths, Weissman may be a welcome addition while offering Edouard a quality partner and offer quality depth.
Superb insight, thank you. It would be hoped that Griffiths regains his fitness and soon. I’m unsure if he went to Loughborough but to be left at home, unless he has an injury, is worrying. In that context, a scorer of “scrappy” goals is exactly what Celtic need.
Thanks as always for reading and commenting – I agree as long has Weissman is intended as a complement to Edouard for this season. I’d be less comfortable with him as our “headline” striker when Edouard leaves. Of course, that would also depend on the quality of creative players surrounding him, so if we brought in an “Edouard-equivalent” #10, then he may be fine.
Fascinating insight as ever. Very difficult to compare apples and oranges. Seems Weissman is keen on the Bundesliga or the EPL, so may be a moot point on him potentially coming to Celtic. Nevertheless, it is very interesting to read evidence-based analysis and aim to judge the merits or otherwise of the player. Thanks again.
A great read and hugely informative.
I worry about what happens if Eddy picks up an injury and Weissman could limit the damage done in that scenario. I was heartened to see the link to Podence as high level creative player could limit such a risk too = although Podence looks unlikely a player of similar stature would be important.
Thanks again bud.
Thnks for doing all these – very appreciated