James Forrest rightly gets his moment in the limelight, something I am not sure he would entirely be comfortable with, as Celtic complete preseason duties against Athletic Club of Bilbao ostensibly in his honour as a testimonial.
Once formalities are concluded, it will be serious business as Celtic start league action on Saturday, and many squad members need minutes in their legs. No old bhoys 8-8 draw this!
Forrest is one of the players whose journey with Celtic I have been able to map through data to a large extent. I have Kieran Tierney’s debut data onwards, but Forrest started in the first team in 2009-10 and as a regular starter from 2011-12.
Over 450 appearances, over 100 goals and assists have followed as well as 24 trophies. Remarkably, all five international goals occurred within four days in November 2018 across 38 Scotland caps.
It is a career we’d all be proud to have.
As per the data, Forrest’s impact on the first team has diminished over the recent seasons:
That 2018-19 season was the high point in terms of involvement at Celtic as well as his peak performances at international level.
Injury worries have returned in recent seasons, something that was a reoccurring concern in his early career. Also, he had a manager in Ange Postecoglou who relied on a tight core of starters.
Despite this Forrest has shown some life in the ol’ dog yet:
His total expected scoring contribution (xG plus xA) is highest from a small sample last season than any other I have data for. Indeed, to maintain close to 0.4 xG90 for a wide player is admirably consistent.
Always with the context. Forrest was used mainly as a substitute in the last two campaigns and as I have shown, that came with a data boost for players used in this way under Postecoglou. Entering the play after 65 minutes against tired and mostly beaten opposition meant some stat padding could ensure.
Nevertheless, you still must perform.
With Forrest 32 years old and reliant in his prime on outright pace as his main attacking weapon, natural and normal age decline for a speed-based winger is inevitable.
That does not mean a total lack of utility.
Forrest has always been a smart player. I always thought he had the guile to be effective as a kind of false nine.
Just because someone’s data is declining does not mean you could easily replace their contribution both on and off the pitch. If Forrest can be a useful substitute, given the likely elongation of matches under stricter time management, and given the five-sub rule, there is a role for such an experienced and wily campaigner.
When Callum McGregor was given a five year deal I settled on the key question not being “how far has he declined?” but “how much to replace?”. I think the same thinking is relevant when considering Forrest’s current standing in the squad.
Forrest deserves his big day tonight and I wish him well.
And under Rodgers’s tutelage, there may be a chapter or two left to write on the pitch.
Surely some mistake, as his highest minutes came during Rodgers Mk 1 and we all know he was the cause of most injury absences. 😉
Isn’t it weird that two seemingly contradictory things can be true at the same time
It’s almost as if life is quite complex