A week on from Murrayfield, Hearts must take on the Champions again in the wide open and manicured acres of Celtic Park. Their players looked visibly spooked by the Celtic second half onslaught in the League Cup Semi Final. More concerningly, the Jambos seemed exhausted as they were run to ground by a much fitter side.
On Firm Ground
Celtic have a poor record on difficult playing surfaces. Defeats away to Hearts, AEK Athens, Kilmarnock and even RB Leipzig have all come on substandard playing surfaces as was the draw in Suduva. Even Murrayfield seemed a little dry. Hearts famously kept the grass long for the game against Celtic earlier in the season, forcing the visitors into a longer passing game littered with constant physical challenges.
At Tynecastle Hearts restricted Celtic to 402 passes (they average 553) and Celtic’s passing completion of 80% has only been lower chasing shadows in Salzburg. A brutal match saw 113 challenges, around 20 more than any other game. Teams have defended better against Celtic, particularly Kilmarnock, and the Hoops still created 14 chances and 16 shots, 5 on target. Hearts took their chance, one of only 7 created. And despite having 14 shots, 6 were on target as Celtic entered their profligate stage.
The firm, slick hybrid surface at Celtic Park will make Hearts’ tactics that day harder to implement than within their narrow home park (Tynecastle is 989 square yards smaller than Celtic Park). Also, they relied upon the, errr, wiles(!) of Lafferty and Naismith, neither of whom will be available to Levein on Saturday. Nor will the awkward Ikpeazu. In any case, Celtic’s centre backs that day were Simunovic and Hendry neither of whom are dominant aerial challengers. The choice on Saturday will be between Ajer, Benkovic and Boyata all of whom lead the aerial challenge stats.
The above shows the difference between aerial challenges won versus lost. Benkovic and Ajer are significantly more dominant aerially than Simunovic and Hendry.
Heart’s approach at Murrayfield was less direct. They completed 55 more passes than in the league game, and at half time would have been happy their Levein Ball was working. Both sides had 4 shots, 1 on target and had created 4 chances. Despite only having 35% possession Hearts successfully frustrated the Hoops. The realisation Celtic did not need a sitting midfielder revolutionised the Champions approach as fast runners and passers lacerated the one paced Maroons.
Do they try the same military-rigid 4-4-2 medium block again? That would feel like waiting for defeat. Has Levein a Plan C?
Welcome To The Leaders!
When was the last time Celtic welcomed the League leaders to Celtic Park? I don’t know so please use the comments section to inform! The current best estimate is 4th May 2010, the Mowbray season when Rangers visited and took on (then) Lennon’s side.
But Hearts should be congratulated for their start to the season and are justifiably at the top of the SPFL.
Hearts have won 4 and lost 1 of their 5 away matches in the SPFL. Their most notable away win was against Clarke’s supremely well organised Kilmarnock side, 1-0. A 1-3 reverse at Ibrox their only other visit to a top six side.
They are now 24 shots behind Celtic in total shots at goal in the SPFL. The Hoops are now up to 188 in 10 games compared to the Jambos 164 in 11.
Both Hearts (33%) and Celtic’s (35%) Shot Accuracy are below the league average 38%. Despite this both sides are now converting 12% of all shots – exactly the league average. Once a shot is on target, Celtic are preforming at 2% above the league average on 34%, whilst Hearts are hitting that SPFL average 32%.
Celtic have only conceded 6 SPFL goals in 10 games, whilst Hearts have let in 7 in 11. Apart from Livingston these are the tightest defences in the league it seems. But Hearts have conceded 109 shots compared to 69 by Celtic. And with a 6% conversion of all shots, Hearts’ opponents are the most profligate in the SPFL. By comparison 9% of shots Celtic face result in goals. The league average is 12%. Both clubs could be due a reversal to the mean?
Both Hearts (18%) and Celtic (24%) are letting in far less on target shots than the league average 31%. Is this sustainable, or evidence of well organised defences? Judging by the Murrayfield game, Celtic will not be put off by these numbers.
No side has committed as many fouls (167) nor been fouled (168) as much as Hearts. By comparison Celtic have committed 105 fouls and been fouled 142 times.
Where Hearts are to be commended is that their shot quality is an average 0.123 xG per shot. It is the 3rd best in the league but ahead of Celtic’s 0.116 xG per shot.
Kilmarnock allow the opposition the least quality average shot by xG with 0.084 but Hearts are not far behind with 0.099. Celtic meanwhile allow their opponents an average 0.104 xG per shot.
Conclusion
Hearts have had a fantastic start to the season but the loss of both first-choice centre backs (though I posit Dunne is better than either of them) and three strikers may take its toll. Levein’s faster and more creative players expose them defensively. Go with the same line up as Saturday and the hard-running Celtic line up that finished the game at Murrayfield will strike the fear into the league leaders. Frankly, Celtic have little choice themselves as regards selection given the piling injuries.
I suspect Hearts will struggle on the fast Celtic Park surface against a side aligning to an irresistible rhythm.
‘Spooked’ is a good description , very apt around Halloween. The psychological trauma we inflicted on Hearts in that second Murrayfield half will still be raw. I fancy a good win and Hearts to finish with less than 11 men.