Article by James Dailey
As I consume mainstream and fan-based Celtic-related media, I am constantly bombarded by “conventional wisdom” and provided with topics to analyze. Today’s subject is the often-repeated notion that Neil Lennon is a better and more pragmatic tactical manager than Brendan Rodgers- particularly in Europe.
I believe much of this notion is based upon the few absolute doings Celtic suffered in the Champions League under Rodgers – particularly 7-0 to Barcelona and 7-1 to PSG. Ultimately, games are determined by goals, but underlying performance metrics can help assess the balance of play and volume/quality of chances created.
All four results show Team A posting a dominant underlying performance advantage. For further perspective, Celtic has averaged an xG of 2.34 per game in the SPFL this season and scored 2.75 goals per game, while conceding 0.65 xG per game and 0.65 per game. Their highest xG in a league game this season is 4.33.
Before I come back to the four games listed above, let’s review aggregate Europa League group performances and compare this season’s campaign with last:
Celtic’s underlying group performance was significantly better last season. Despite the great results versus Lazio, we lost the xG battle by 1.87 to 3.31 in the two games collectively.
With underlying stats indicating Celtic played better overall last season versus this season, a logical question to ask is “why”? As I sought out an explanation, I immediately went to The Wall for answers.
Next is the xG conceded by campaign vs actual goals conceded for each group stage:
We can see that last season’s Europa League group stage essentially matched xG conceded. This season saw a 1.80 goal difference in our favor, but even that is deceiving relative to the impact of Forster, as he did not play in the last game at Cluj. Gordon conceded 2 goals that game on 1.93 in xG. If we look at just the 5 games with Forster in goal, he conceded just 4 goals on 5.87 xG conceded.
Given the sample size of these games, this disparity could be noise, but the disparity with Forster in goal certainly matches the “eye test.” Also, if we look at goals conceded vs xG conceded in the Champions League and Europa League qualifiers this season with Bain in goal, he surrendered 8 goals on an xG conceded of 6.64.
What would Rodgers’ Celtic have accomplished in last season’s Europa League group stage with Forster in goal or Lennon’s this season with Bain or Gordon? What would Lennon’s 2012 team have achieved in Europe with a Bain/Gordon level keeper instead of Forster?
Now time to reveal the mystery games:
The first Rangers result and data is from the League Cup final in December, and second from the first derby in Rodgers’ first season.
Managers sure do look smarter when they have a world class keeper.
Celtic seem more confident playing better football in Europe domestic football they need to brush up a bit over all I think Lennon has got it wright and as the season goes on they will get better
Well done Lenny for spotting the potential to improve results with a better keeper. Maybe BR had a blind spot with keepers the same as MO’N had. Craig Gordon lived off some good games and saves but was prone to more than a few nightmare inducing performances, as was Rab Douglas. If yer maw had baws an awe that……
Great article. Keep them coming.
Ha ha
Andy 2
Brendan Rodgers has failed to take any side in Europe beyond the last 32 of the Europa League.
At 5 attempts.
Not only at 5 attempts but with the biggest budget at Celtic ever and a £300m spend on Transfers at Liverpool with a side already containing Reina Agger Skyrtl Gerrard Lucas Suarez and Sterling.
Neil Lennon took Celtic to the last 16 of the Champions League with a back 4 of Lustig Ambrose Wilson and Matthews at Left Back.
Forget the G’s and Stats Rodgers record in Europe is not great.
Not by any stretch of the imagination.
Ultimately it’s was one of the primary reasons that got him sacked at Liverpool.
Rodgers is very good Domestic coach but the demands in European Football require a more pragmatic approach to problem solving when you are Managing a side who is the less fancied side and who generally doesn’t have the bulk of the ball.
On the Forster thing.
Yes Managers sure do look smarter with a World class keeper but even more so when it was them who took them from Newcastle as 3rd choice Keeper and made them into a World Class Keeper on the big stage and then BRINGING them back from a Club who no longer viewed him as a World Class Keeper!
Rodgers meanwhile brought in Devries and subsequently went back to Deila signing Gordon!
THEN as a result subsequently attempted to turn Craig Gordon into Manuel Neuer!
Any realistic statistical comparison can only take place in a couple of years when we’ll have 3 years data for both men.
CL humpings, as awful, disgraceful etc they are, means nothing, as we’ve nothing to compare them with.
The CL of 7 years ago is no comparison to todays, especially qualifiers, so we need to wait on this.
What we do know:
– Rodgers qualified for the CL 2 out of 3 years and in the other we lost out to a team who went on to play in the Group stage.
– Lennon has qualified 0 out of 1 and lost out to a team that didn’t go on to qualify for the Group stage.
– in last season’s EL Group we “only” finished 2nd but did finish ahead of Leipzig who are now in the CL KO rounds and obviously Salzburg were also in the CL Group stage this year. We lost easily in the KO.
– we finished top of our EL Group this year, which was a surprise given our CL performance! Hopefully we can get past Copenhagen and depending on the draw go even further.
– a lot has been made of our double victory over Lazio and rightly so but there’s a certain gilding of the lily as “they’re a top Italian side, they’ve one their last 10 games” but they’re a very poor European side losing 8 of their past 10 games and the 2 victories were narrow 1 goal home wins.
Thank you for reading and taking the time to comment.
I largely agree with your points- the factors which drive results are complex, including the relative interest of top 5 clubs in truly competing in the EL group stage vs domestic priorities.
I focused on the potential role of the quality of keepers as a way to challenge the conventional narrative. It is just one and agree that the sample sizes are simply too small to be declarative.
One point I will raise is that the xG disparity in the Valencia tie was actually reasonably close – certainly closer than my lasting memory of the game is.
1st game was home and 0.32 vs 0.96 and 2nd away was 1.47 vs 1.22 for aggregate of 2.43 vs 1.54 – precisely the kind of margin where a very good keeper could be the difference between victory and defeat!