Celtic are conceding less goals than last season, averaging 0.74 per game versus 0.89 last season. Many factors to this, but how is Gordon contributing to this improved defensive performance?
Saves
In the mainstream like Sky Sports the analysis of goalkeeping performance is restricted mainly to Save % – i.e. what percentage of shots on target are saved. Unfortunately, this tells you little about the quality of the goalkeeper. This is explained very well in this article by 11tegen11. I can illustrate further by showing you Gordon’s save % record over the last five seasons.
You’d conclude that Gordon is 1. inconsistent and 2. in some sort of terminal decline. As a shot stopper our eyes tell us this is not true.
And this can be illustrated by comparing the saves Gordon makes with the shots the opposition are taking. Firstly, by sheer volume.
This shows that the number of saves Gordon is making per 90m is broadly in line with the number of shots the opposition are having on target. That is, he is consistent. And by the way, it is encouraging that the trend for opposition shots on target is reducing.
As mentioned in the 11tegen11 article we need to look at Expected Goals (xG) against versus actual goals conceded. I only have this data for the last 2 seasons thus.
Last season Gordon conceded 42 goals. The xG models suggests he should have conceded 41.39. This season the respective numbers are 27 goals against and 29.49 xG against.
Broadly Gordon is conceding the volume of goals you’d expect given the quality of the chances the opposition have created. Now you might wish that Celtic, as the dominant team in Scotland, has a goalkeeper who is conceding less than expected as De Gea (Manchester United) and Allison (Liverpool) do. But what you cannot say is Gordon is under performing in the shot stopping department.
Distribution
The other major component of goalkeeping is distribution. If you are a bit old school, and let’s admit it, who isn’t, you are thinking “Goalkeepers are there to save shots not play like bloody Beckenbauer”. Admirable sentiment though that is, the reality is that whilst a ‘keeper may have to make 2 or 3 saves a game (if they play for Celtic) they have to attempt 20 – 30 passes. For a possession-based strategy, that is key. The first pass of the attack.
I described at length how Gordon had successfully adapted to Rodger’s requirements for a play making ‘keeper in Old Gord, New Tricks. That was January 2017 (it’s a super article – read it)! So, time for a refresh.
Gordon’s distribution has been on an upward trajectory under Rodgers. Last season he managed 80% pass completion and managed the most passes of his Celtic career per 90m – 27.01. This season both the % complete and volume of successful passes have dropped off.
Additionally, the number of forward passes that take out opponents has dropped from 2.38 to 1.63 per 90m.
In short, Gordon’s distribution is regressing.
But against what benchmark? Well, the highest rated goalkeeper in the English Premier League currently is Allison Becker of Liverpool. He is particularly revered for his ability to play out from the back. On WhoScored, Allison’s equivalent stats are 26.7 passer per 90m completed @ 79.3% completion. On that basis. Gordon has equivalent numbers albeit against a much lower standard of opposition.
Summary
Gordon is saving the shots expected of him (arguably, no more). His distribution is regressing but using the bench mark of England’s top passing ‘keeper, he is performing at a similar level against poorer opposition.
It is another position in the squad requiring succession planning. But there is life in the old Gord yet.
Great article again, thanks.
Personally, I think CG is placing the team under undue pressure far too often. The slightest hint of being closed down and it’s out the park deep in our own half or straight to the opposition in our half. Sometimes a big blooter up the park is required but that’s not our managers way.
Andy thanks for the comments. I hear you but there is strength in sticking to principles. Gordon’s passing stats are not out of kilter with top exponents. He isn’t having the best season passing wise but the managers beliefs are set. Over the season I believe maintenance of possession will out weigh the odd gaff.
Excellent article and it does make me wonder how Forster did by comparison at Celtic.
The reason I ask this is he’s evidently surplus to requirement at Southampton and probably attainable again now at 31 years young.
We have 2 good young keepers coming through so it will be interesting to see if we can actually have a home produced keeper who can actually play the way our Manager wants rather than going down the road of retraining the skill set of a mature keeper like Craig as has been the case under Brendan.
Square pegs in round holes if you like.
Same deal with with young Calvin Miller who has spent his entire youth playing as an attack minded wide player all of a sudden being asked to retrade as a defensive minded fullback?
Common sense decrees that you play your best players in the positions and style you will get the best returns from.
Callum McGregor in at Left Back at Ibrox or Sinclair as a right wing back are two prime examples.
sadly don’t have Forster data
I think this tells you that once we got rid of Effie Ambrose we started to improve at the back, God bless him but he wasn’t blessed. In that department but he seems to be doing something right at Hibs.
Shot stoppers and footballers.
Even the best keepers aren’t comfortable with the ball at their feet, that’s why they
play in goal?
Hail Hail
Poor goalkeepers! Having to change a major part of your game to keep on trend. I remember being amazed watching Germany at Hampden about four years ago. I suppose Manuel Neuer is the ultimate dribbling sweeper keeper. My early days watching football included seeing how far the keeper could kick the ball. Craig Gordon has his good moments but many see them through slightly open fingers. I like big Craig, he’s a good goalie.
Eve Ambrose. Who knew he was so good with throw ins?