Mikael, that’s a beach ball…..

Mikael Lustig has had his Celtic contract extended to the end of the 2019 season. He is seemingly at ease with his role at Celtic as a senior pro, and appears connected to the club and support. His fashion sense is impeccable, matching colour, style and accessories with flair.

Currently 30 years old, this is possibly Lustig’s last major contract – he will be 32 at completion. Joining Celtic at the start of 2012, he arrived on a free “Bosman” transfer from Norwegian side Rosenborg in the January “window”. Of the current 1^st team squad, Ambrose, Izaguirre, Brown, Commons, Forrest and Rogic (!) also played that season.

Lustig has had a highly successful professional career already. He has won 6 league titles (2 at Rosenborg / 4 at Celtic), 1 Scottish Cup, 2 Scottish League Cups and 1 Norwegian “Super Cup”. Additionally, he has 55 Swedish full international caps and represented his country at 2 major finals (Euro 2012 and Euro 2016).

Lustig Appearance Data

(Note: I look at the last 3 seasons using my detailed performance data but some overall career summary data to start (source Transfermarkt)).

Season	Total Mins	Games Started	90 mins	Used Sub	Unused Sub	Not In Squad	Injured
2011/12	301	4	1	1	2	16	0
2012/13	2919	34	21	5	6	14	0
2013/14	2087	23	15	7	0	3	20
2014/15	1168	14	8	2	2	6	37
2015/16	3915	45	36	1	4	4	3
2016/17	2747	31	28	0	2	1	1
TOTAL	13137	151	109	16	16	44	61

Lustig signed at 26 already an established international and was barely used in 2012 as he got back to fitness following the end of the Norwegian season. In season 2 he was heavily involved in the 1^st team but was not an automatic 1^st pick, completing 90 mins only 21 times. Two injury hit seasons followed, missing 57 games due to hip, knee, thigh and ankle issues. An operation was required to rectify hip issues that arose during the 2013/14 season and he missed virtually the whole season not playing at all after 7^th Feb. Overall, he has been injured for 21% of the 288 games Celtic have played in his time here.

He started 45 games last season and has been a 1^st pick in 2016/17 under Rodgers, only missing 4 games to injury over the last 18 months. After 3.5 seasons in and out the team or injured, are Celtic now seeing the best of Lustig over the last 1.5 years?

Lustig Positional Data

Season	Mins at D R	Mins at D C	Mins at DM C	Mins at M R	Mins at D L
2011/12	211	90	0	0	0
2012/13	2083	667	79	90	0
2013/14	1997	90	0	0	0
2014/15	931	147	0	0	90
2015/16	3915	0	0	0	0
2016/17	1763	984	0	0	0
TOTALS	10900	1978	79	90	90

Whilst predominantly a D(efender) R(ight) Lennon tried him in 4 different positions including right midfield in a 1-3 defeat at Motherwell. Deila rarely used him at DC(entre) but this season has seen Lustig played there 36% of the time by Rodgers and this is perhaps a future career direction.

2014-17 – Mikael Lustig – Defending

2014-17 – Mikael Lustig – Attacking

Lustig Season by Season Comparison

Defending	2014/15	2015/16	2016/17		Average
Pass90	53	51	63		56
Pass Completion %	82	82	88		84
PEI%	73	74	79		76
Tackles Won90	9.25	5.2	5.14		5.78
Tackles Won%	74	69	78		73
Intercepts90	5.24	4.71	3.24		4.28
Intercepts Won%	59	54	38		51
Fouls Conceeded90	1.39	0.99	0.69		0.94
Clearances90	5.4	3.5	5.4		4.48
Defensive Saves90	0.23	0.23	0.2		0.22
Defensive Errors90	0.31	0.57	0.29		0.44

Lustig is another player seemingly revitalised under Rodgers. He is completing 10 more passes a game and more accurately also – a massive upturn in pass success % to 86%. This may be partly a function of playing more time at DC as from this position you tend to play more short safe passes.

His overall PEI (Possession Effectiveness Index) is therefore up hugely as well by 5%. He is winning less tackles but a higher proportion of them. Lustig’s 2014/15 average of 9.25 tackles (this can be any duel either heading or on the ground) per game won is the highest I have recorded for ANY Celtic player. At over 6ft 2in Lustig wins most of his heading duels as well as being an aggressive tackler. Despite this he is rarely booked and has never been suspended whilst at Celtic. He is intercepting the ball less and winning a lower proportion of the ball from those intercept actions (older, slightly slower?). He is conceding less fouls – is this because of better decision making through experience?

His defending radar shows a consistent performance across the key defensive metrics.

Attacking	2014/15	2015/16	2016/17		Average
Goals90	0.15	0.11	0.03		0.09
Shots90	0.69	0.8	0.49		0.68
Shot Accuracy%	44	37	20		34
Assists90	0.23	0.23	0.16		0.21
Chance Created90	1	0.69	0.66		0.72
Chance Creation%	41	47	59		48
Goals & Assists90	0.39	0.34	0.2		0.3
Dribble Success90	0.15	0.16	0.1		0.14

Lustig has been a useful attacking weapon throughout his career, scoring 31 goals in 222 games in Sweden and Norway (0.14 per game). He has scored 13 goals for Celtic and 4 for Sweden. His career Goals per game is 0.11 per 90mins. He scored the 1^st goal of the Rodgers era, against Lincoln Red Imps!

His goal output has been declining, although whether he plays at DR or DC his threat from corners and free kicks will remain. His shot/header accuracy is also declining as is the number of chances he is creating. However, his assist rate of 0.23 in the 2 seasons prior to this is not far behind Sinclair, Forrest this season (0.26). In 2015/16 he registered 10 assists, 2^nd only to Johansen as he started 45 matches, all of them at DR. This season his assist rate is down slightly but he has still managed 5 – all when playing at DR.

Summary

Lustig’s Celtic career has taken over 3 years to develop. Lustig is now maturing into a consistent defender but this season is a less potent attacking force. This is consistent with a player getting older and managing his games better as he moves beyond 30. With (hopefully) injury woes behind him, and an alternative career as a DC, Lustig is set to be one of the backbone players for Celtic in the next 2.5 years. Any squad needs a core of consistent, solid professionals alongside the more ethereal talent. For Celtic, players such as Gordon, Lustig, Sviatchenko and Brown are the Gary Neville-type “7/10” players that provide a platform for the likes of Sinclair, Griffiths, Roberts to play.

Lustig is performing with more defensive solidity this season, and this is partly due to his move to DC more frequently that previously in his career. Attacking flair may be being sacrificed but others in the team are currently providing this.

It may also mean Celtic trying to obtain an attacking DR to replace the goal and assist output Lustig had managed.