A lively debate ensued on Twitter (it does happen!) after @celticrumours posted this:
I am no different to any other supporter in that I want every player to succeed at Celtic. Ideally, I’d love a first team of 11 local Scottish lads, just like ’67.
I am also old enough to know that will not happen and that few players achieve as much in their Celtic careers as Callum McGregor and James Forrest, for example.
I usually let the data lead me in conjunction with what I see.
So, back to Mikey Johnston.
Appearances
Johnston’s first appearance was in the 16/17 season when he provided an assist in a late season 4-1 win over St Johnstone.
4 appearances followed in 17/18 due to a bad injury but it was in 18/19 he broke through with 23 appearances, and 16 stints on the bench unused.
The 19/20 season saw a similar pattern with 21 appearances, but only 1 unused on the bench.
Injury has been a constant frustration over the last 3 seasons.
His profile of appearances has been:
His 80 appearances over 6 seasons has only led to an average of just over 42 minutes per appearance.
He has only completed 90 minutes 5 times. None has even been in consecutive games. He once completed 90 and 84 minutes within 4 days away to AIK Stockholm and The Rangers in August and September 2019. An injured groin followed.
Injury
His injury record is really poor:
He has missed more games than made appearances by 30.
It is not uncommon for younger players to experience ongoing muscle injury whilst they continue to grow even into their early 20s. Steven Gerrard was a notable victim of this phenomenon in his 21st and 22nd years.
Johnston is now 23 and will be 24 in April 2023.
Has he been unlucky or are there serious underlying fitness and conditioning issues?
Here are Celtic’s most injured from the last 8 seasons:
Based on the above, Johnston can lay claim to being the most injured first team member of the last 8 seasons I have data. Note I discounted his first season (16/17) as it was really only 1 appearance after spending the season with the Youth team. The rest are full seasons with the first team – this matters due to the intensity of the training and schedule.
Ok, a tale of woe for sure, but can he play when he does?
Performance
Johnston has 10 goals and 10 assists in the equivalent of 37.54 full appearances, which is pretty good. Some sites given him 11 goals but there was an own goal against AIK Stockholm.
He averages 0.27 goals per 90m versus xG of 0.34.
He averages 0.27 assists per 90m versus xA of 0.22.
Total Scoring Contribution is 0.53 per 90m versus xSC of 0.58.
Let’s compare that to some recent wingers’ performances since 17/18 when he first started to appear in the first team regularly:
This looks at attacking output very simply – Expected Goals and Assists against Actual Goals and Assists.
Johnston over his Celtic career is some way behind the current pairs’ debut seasons (Abada and Jota) and Forrest’s stellar 19/20 season.
He is well below Elyounoussi’s two tours and even non peak Forrest.
His performances are more akin to injury blighted Roberts, Morgan and Hayes who played a lot as a full back.
Potential
The venerable ETims commented that perhaps Johnston will thrive playing with better players in a coherent system.
The success of Abada (19) and Jota (23) last season may suggest that there is merit in that.
However, Johnston has played with Forrest, Rogic, Edouard, Christie, Turnbull, Griffiths. Are we suggesting these multiple treble winners were subpar players?
I would agree that under Postecoglou Celtic are as coherent an attacking unit as I can remember. And I would agree with the premise that given time perhaps the current manager could improve Johnston in the same way he has with Ralston and Taylor (and likely will with Turnbull).
But back to the start. Can the manager trust the player to be fit and available?
Johnston has 1 goal versus Stade Rennes and 1 assist versus Real Betis that were in big games against top opposition. All his other goals and assists were against minor European opposition or standard SPFL fare.
My eye test says his attacking pace and jinking runs don’t scale well to better opposition where his suboptimal decision making (pass, run, shoot?) are exposed.
If I had hours to spare I’d parse his xSC versus the different categories of opposition but the output mentioned above seems stark enough.
Summary
At full time, elite level, his body seems to struggle to cope with the demands of professional football. He is the most injured player Celtic have had in the 8 years I have collected data. At 23 will this improve?
Johnston is a highly skilled player who, I suspect, wows in training 5 a side with his trickery and pace. However, his output comes mainly versus poorer quality teams, and his total attacking productivity, whilst not terrible, does not compare well to recent Celtic wingers of all ages.
I hope he improves and makes it at Celtic but I have to go with the evidence that he will not, I am sorry to conclude.
Only the eye test and sketchy memory on this, but I’ve always thought he was similar to James Forrest when he was still physically growing. Once physically developed he became an asset, though he’s been injured a lot again recently. Sports science guys will be spending a lot of their time with Mikey !
MJ has all the skill in the world but as you mention, in the article, his decision making is too often poor. To fulfill his potential, Damien Duff said he was “world class”, he needs to improve his decision making and stay fit.
Thanks for all the stats. I really enjoy this site.