The question of whether Celtic should endeavour to keep Elyounoussi was the subject of a podcast with Paul on a Celtic Stat Of Mind. Please enjoy Celtic By Numbers in written and aural form!
Method
I compared Elyounoussi’s 19/20 season output with the man he ostensibly replaced on the left-hand side of the attack (Sinclair, 18/19 season data) and with his peer on the attacking right, Forrest (19/20 season data).
Elyounoussi’s Season
With 7 goals and 6 assists in 20 appearances the Norwegian is joint 6th on the overall Scoring Contribution chart.
He has racked up those contributions in only 15.06 worth of minutes. Based on Scoring Contribution per 90m he would also be 6th in the squad (behind Forrest (0.92), Johnston (!), Christie, Griffiths and Edouard).
When evaluating him, we are really looking at a 12-game run between mid-September and mid-November when injury struck. He has been a bit part player since. In September Sinclair was well out of favour and Johnston succumbed to one of many injuries.
Before injury he was approaching good form. He achieved two Celtic By Numbers Bhoy of the Match awards – in the 0-2 debacle at Livingston, and in the 5-2 League Cup Semi-Final win against Hibernian. Another notable performance followed in Rome supporting Edouard where his strength off the ball was key.
Creativity
Values per 90m
Of this peer group, Forrest is a clear leader in terms of primary and secondary assisting passes, both actual and expected. All three exceeded their Expected Assist (xA) rate but Elyounoussi more so.
Elyounoussi puts more risk into his passing and is rewarded with the highest Pass Impect rate (ability to take opponents out the game with forward passes). The other side to this is the lowest pass completion rate and least number of completed passes as a total.
Forrest has 23 assists this season which is exceptional by any standard. Elyounoussi doesn’t meet that standard but is an improvement on the declining creativity of Sinclair.
Goal Threat
Values per 90m
It’s a mixed bag to say the least! Elyounoussi has the lowest volume of shots, is the least accurate BUT has the highest Goals per 90m rate and an On Target Conversion Rate of 64% that is incredibly high. Indeed so high that it is unlikely to be sustainable.
Indeed, Elyounoussi is the only one of the three who has exceed his xG suggesting his scoring success may regress a bit.
I like 73% if shots being taken in the box but the lower accuracy rating and the fact 42% of shots are blocked suggests poorer shot selection decisions than the others.
Off the Ball
I have some metrics that indicate movement off the ball skills to some extent.
Values per 90m
The last metric illustrates a strength of Elyounoussi. His ability to find space and receive the forward passes has him with the highest Receive Impect score by quite some distance. He also leads the three in losing the ball in the final 3rd and in being dispossessed. This further illustrates how Forrest is more careful with possession.
He also has the least number of touches in the opposition box.
Defending
This may seem an odd category for an attacking player but wide players must track back and additionally this reflects on pressing ability.
Values per 90m
By this criteria Elyounoussi is a clear winner. He wins the ball back in the opposition final 3rd three times more than the others. He wins possession back significantly more and wins more than double the number of challenges.
Elyounousi is really effective without the ball both in terms of work rate and movement to find space, and in the press winning the ball back. A key assist in the season was when he pressed high away to Lazio and win the ball back before threading a highly improbable pass to Forrest for the equaliser.
Overall Attacking Threat
Values per 90m
Elyounoussi’s scoring contribution overall is an impressive 0.86 per 90m but this lags behind 5 other players although is an improvement on Sinclair. His overall Attacking Threat metric (CAT score) is behind the other wide attackers, mainly due to less shots, less key passes and less opposition box entries.
He has the lowest Scoring Contribution per Possession with one every 53 possessions and a scoring contribution of one every 104 minutes is impressive
Summary
Elyounoussi provides the off the ball work rate and movement that was regressing in Sinclair’s game. And there is evidence that given a run in the team he would have matched Sinclair’s (non-vintage) 18/19 attacking output.
Whilst he is probably an improvement on a regressing Sinclair, he lags behind the (in some quarters) much criticised Forrest. This is no shame. Forrest has performed at a highly productive level for three seasons now.
It is likely Elyounoussi would be very expensive in fee and wages. If the football market post virus crisis is such he can be obtained cheaply then he is worth pursuing. At current market rates however, I expect there to be better value to be had.
To be fair to Elyounoussi we really haven’t seen him with a prolonged run of form. Forrest is a very high benchmark to be compared against despite what some think. The fact he doesn’t meet it in an attacking sense wouldn’t be a definite no, but add in the likely cost and the deal becomes less attractive.
I suspect it is an expensive risk and would be a cautious “no” from me at this time.
This must be the first CBN article that hasn’t contained something that surprised me. I suppose that’s a surprise in itself. James Forrest is a very, very good attacker, but he couldnae tackle a fish supper (an issue if Celtic are to play 3-5-2). Elyanoussi is good but not worth anything like what Southampton paid for him and are paying him. Lenny’s very good eye for a player has allowed him to upgrade the out-of-sorts Sinclair. The big question must be whether we need to buy another player for that role. If we’re going to be playing 3-5-2, then we probably don’t need one at all. It hasn’t been ideal that Mikey Johnston’s season has been so interrupted. If Lenny wants to keep his tactical options open, then he already has quite a few possibilities for the left-sided attacker in a 4-2-3-1 with either Johnston, Hayes, Forrest (with, say, Frimpong or Christie on the right), or even Edouard now that Griffiths is available again (though the system doesn’t really suit Griff). I like Elyanoussi, but I don’t think buying him would be a wise investment.
I’m not sure why we’re comparing the 18/19 regressing Sinclair rather than the surgent 16/17 vintage.
Surely its the latter that we want to replicate, not something that’s just better than the former.