New Year, New Sinclair?

Sinclair was excellent yesterday against Dundee. Here’s hoping this is a long-term return to form. I have twice covered the question of Sinclair and regression in form. Nearly a year since the original analysis, it is time for a refresh.

Firstly, a recap.

In Slumper Sinclair? I showed that press and supporter perceptions of Sinclair suffering a slump in form were inaccurate and that he was largely maintaining the form from his initial season. Literally from the next game after that article came out, his form deteriorated.

I addressed this in Now It’s A Slump. It seemed that a deterioration in pace, a loss of confidence and less starts had all contributed to a decline in attacking output.

This season, with only 3 non-penalty goals and 6 assists, it is worth reviewing where Sinclair is.

Goal Threat

Especially given the lack of striker options, Sinclair should be Celtic’s main goal threat apart from the centre forward. He is the most attacking player in the squad and has license to express himself in the final third. 25 goals in his first season was the return of a striker.

I remove penalties from the analysis as the chance of scoring from the spot is the same irrespective of the taker.

It is a sad slope of decline for non-penalty goals across Sinclair’s three Celtic seasons and the drop of in productivity is most marked into the current season.

It should be said that Sinclair is consistently not scoring the goals he would be expected to. He is consistency below his xG rate. He may be due a change in fortune as these things tend to regress to the mean.

Creativity

As a wide attacker, creating chances for others is a key requirement of the role. Here we look at assists and expected assists (xA) per 90m across his three seasons.

Sinclair saw a slight increase in his xA last season but actual assist production is falling in a similar manner to goals. Slowly last season then alarmingly this.

Conversely, Sinclair is achieving more assists than expected and has done in each of his three seasons. As with goals, this can be expected to revert to the average over time.

Finally, combining Chances Created and Shots At Goal take us back a step from final product so see whether he is creating the environment for goals and assists to follow.

But it is the same sad wee slope.

Sinclair is creating less chances over time and is having less shots at goal over time.

The numbers confirm our own eyes. The question is whether this is retrievable (confidence and / or attitude) or whether this is evidence of declining physical attributes (pace, mainly). Or both.

If other striking options can be recruited in January, I would like to see Edouard coming in from the attacking left forward position unless yesterdays performance can be repeated consistently.

Over to Rodgers to permanently sort his first season statement signing.