Ntcham Bias

By James Dailey (@jucojames)

I am guessing at the outset that this piece may trigger the most cognitive dissonance amongst readers and want to state upfront that I am not casting any aspersions on other supporters. I have noticed that players with more laidback demeanors, such as Edouard and Forrest, seem to get more criticism from supporters about “effort” or “not turning up.” Remember all those comments from some about how Griffiths should be first pick over Edouard because he tries harder? I want to state explicitly that I believe such bias is likely related to perceived temperament and body language rather than any nefarious biases. To put it simply, we feel that a guy who pumps his fist after going into a tackle is “trying harder” than one who simply gets up and continues playing.

Consistent Effort

Olivier Ntcham seems to be criticized more than many from a significant portion of Celtic’s support. The most common narrative I hear and/or read is that he is a very good player “when he turns up.” I think that description is both flawed and intensely unfair to Ntcham. He clearly had an issue, along with his fellow French speaking players, with Rodgers over the summer prior to last season, and his quotes about having been disappointed about not getting a transfer to Porto that summer has understandably biased many, which along with his relatively laid bad demeanor, has probably resulted in this common narrative.

For the sake of simplicity, I’ve made a comparison using a single proxy for “effort” – duels. I’ve then calculated the variability of Ntcham’s number of duels per 90 minutes by game and then compared that figure to other Celtic midfielders this season, as well as “peak” Tom Rogic in the 2016-2017 season.

The important number in this chart is the furthest to the right – Coefficient of Variation. This measures the variability of each players’ duels relative to their average. It is basically dividing the Standard Deviation by the Average Duels. This helps normalize for disparity in roles – for example McGregor’s “job” doesn’t result in as many duels, but we can measure the variability and compare to the others using this method.

I will not even get into the vast amount of performance data which shows how tremendous Ntcham is as a passer and creative force in the midfield (Packing! – Ed), because I just wanted to focus on this single trope. He has averaged almost the exact same number of duels per game as Scott Brown and has been more consistent than Brown and close to Christie in that regard.

Conclusion

I draw this comparison not to criticize or cast aspersions at any of the other players, but rather to call out the ridiculous notion that Ntcham is somehow less of a professional who puts forth inconsistent effort on the pitch. I am not alleging that this is the single most perfect metric to measure “effort,” but barring some tangible evidence, which I have been unable to find, I believe Ntcham deserves the same benefit of the doubt with regards to his professionalism afforded others.

Celtic By Numbers Addendum

This shows the total number of defensive actions for the main midfielders. Elyounoussi does a power of recovery work as does Christie. Johnston gets caught in possession as ball carriers often do. Ntcham tends to avoid physical contact but that is down to good movement / positioning as well. This doesn’t invalidate James’s point which is about consistency not volume of actions but I thought it would provide further context to player style in this topic.