Matt O’Riley has reached 100 appearances in the 3-0 victory at St Mirren.
He appears to be one of the team leaders on the pitch in terms of the way he conducts himself.
I am settled in the opinion he is feeling unconstrained in terms of his role compared to the relative tactical straitjacket Ange Postecoglou imposed on his squad.
O’Riley seems quite free spirited and certainly seems to be relishing his more flexible role in the side this season under Brendan Rodgers.
Here is his season heatmap from Sofascore for the 2022/23 league campaign:
Contrast that with this terms offering:
There is a higher degree of involvement overall (although his overall on ball involvement has decreased from 67 per 90m to 64.6).
The increased activity in the opposition box is no surprise and he is getting 5.18 touches compared to 4.94 last season.
O’Riley’s overall scoring contribution is unchanged year on year at 0.64 expected goals + assists per 90m.
But the constitution has. This season his xG is up from 0.29 to 0.36 whilst his xA is down from 0.35 to 0.29.
That total xSC of 0.64 is above the 0.5 benchmark for Celtic attacking midfielders that I would consider a minimum. Peak Ryan Christie circa 2019/20 achieved 0.87 being the standout.
Less objectively, he appears to me to be making a lot more positional decisions about where he is most effective on the pitch.
He is equally attacking the box and getting into the scoring positions and falling back beside Callum McGregor to protect the defence. His defensive stats are very consistent despite his increased attacking output.
He is trending upwards on recoveries (proxy for positioning and anticipation), progressive runs, volume of shots, xG. His passing creativity (volume of pack passes, xA and volume of secondary assisting passes) are all down.
His super-strengths are threefold.
- He “packs” more defenders than anyone else in the squad and has done in his time at Celtic. This means that although his overall pack passing data is not the highest, he takes defenders out the game more than any other player. Given they are the last line of defence this is significant and speaks to his decision-making IQ. His assist for Daizen Maeda against St Mirren is an extreme example where all five of the back line were taken out by his through ball. He averages 4.01 per game although Luis Palma is challenging.
- He recovers the ball in such a way that the opponents have men wrong side of the ball – pack recoveries. Averaging 2.18 per game this is 24% higher than the next best McGregor. This is a good proxy for decision making around positioning and anticipating where the ball is going.
- He has the highest differential in the squad between pack recoveries and pack turnovers. Many don’t have a positive differential as Celtic are so possession dominant, they tend to lose it more than recover it. Only McGregor and Maeda’s differential is positive and nowhere near O’Riley’s level.
It would make no sense to me for Celtic to sell O’Riley in the current winter window. A likely fee would not be offset by the estimated revenue bump from being in next seasons Champions League expanded version.
However, I will be very surprised if the Celtic transfer record is not broken in the summer, and he ends up at a top club in one of the big five leagues.
Here’s hoping he carries on in his current form until then.
This was discussed in the latest episode of the Huddle Breakdown. Please subscribe and never miss a pod.