On Thursday 28th March the following podcast was recorded on the A Celtic State of Mind platform. You can view it here or listen wherever you consume your pods.
This is the second in a series of articles putting on record the details behind the data.
Next up, The Yorkshire Whistler and the power of expert and independent review – aka we don’t mark our own homework.
The “Yorkshire Whistler”
I engaged a referee from the area I live in South Yorkshire. He is an active, professional Football Association qualified referee. He has limited knowledge or interest in Scottish football and is a Sheffield Wednesday season ticket holder.
Based on the big calls for that week’s game as established by red card calls, contentious goal awards, goals disallowed, and penalties awarded and denied, he reviews video evidence as provided by the BBC or SPFL and provides a detailed explanation of whether he thinks the decision arrived at is correct or not.
Matches considered involve Celtic and The Rangers. In the dates under review from 2020-21 onwards, the 3rd placed team in the SPFL Premiership has been 14, 28, 35, and currently 15 points behind the 2nd placed side.
What constitutes a big call is to some extent subjective based on the issues the media highlights (Sky Sports, BBC Scotland for example) but also the decision-based talking points gaining traction on social media amongst fans of either Celtic or The Rangers. Any penalty or red card awarded is automatically reviewed.
If the decision is deemed correct there is no impact on the match outcome. If a decision is deemed incorrect then an expected points impact is calculated.
Penalty Expected Points
Expected points (xPts) are calculated where penalties are awarded.
The expected points model is based on analysis done by the American Soccer Analysis site.
Based on game state (time in match and score at that time), it calculates how many “points” a goal is worth in getting a team towards three points (awarded for a win in league football).
A goal scored in the 90th minute when the score in 0-0 is worth 1.7 expected points to the home team. Whereas a goal to make the score 5-0 in the 90th minute is not worth any expected points.
For penalties, the expected points are multiplied by 0.77 which is the historical probability of scoring a penalty (note Opta calculates this as 0.79).
Therefore, a penalty awarded in the 90th minute when the score is 0-0 would generate an expected points value of 1.7 x 0.77 = 1.31.
Red Card Expected Points
The impact of a red card in football is less than that of a penalty.
I analysed 172 red cards awarded in the SPFL Premiership between 2020-21 and the current season.
The impact in terms of average points dropped compared to the game state (score and match time) at the time of the red card being awarded conformed simplistically to the following model:
A red card awarded any time up to the 55th minute resulted in an average of 0.51 points being dropped. Thereafter the impact lessens as the match moves towards the 90th minute.
This model does not consider which side was home or away nor the specific match score at the time of the red card. Nor is there a Celtic/The Rangers adjustment to acknowledge their relative dominance over the rest of the league. This will serve to understate the overall impact for the purposes of this study.
Independent Expert Assessment of Big Calls
The Yorkshire Whistler has been operational over the periods of The Rangers run without conceding a penalty.
Based on his expert and neutral judgement, Rangers should have conceded six penalties since the start of the 2021-22 season.
They were:
Ironically, the Yorkshire Whistler deemed the penalty Rangers DID get awarded on January 18th, 2022, as being incorrect for a foul by Alfredo Morelos. However, referee Kevin Clancy failed to award a penalty to Aberdeen for a foul by goalkeeper Allan McGregor on Ryan Hedges.
In addition to the six penalties that should have been awarded against Rangers in this period, The Yorkshire Whistler opines that a further five were incorrectly awarded TO Rangers but also four should have been awarded TO Rangers but were not.
Overall, the Yorkshire Whistler has reviewed all the big calls from matches involving Celtic and Rangers over two completed and two-thirds seasons.
Based on the expected points won or lost through either benefitting or being penalised by a wrong call, the overall summary is (correct up to 29th March, 2024):
Overall Celtic have been penalised by an estimated 7.04 expected points over this period whilst Rangers have benefitted from erroneous calls by 3.93 expected points.
That is a swing of 10.96 expected points Celtic have potentially been penalised for relative to their main rivals because of incorrect decisions. The last two league titles have been won by only four and seven points respectively.
Does this indicate a pattern of assistance, or is this just the result of honest mistakes that are due to incompetence and will therefore likely even themselves out over a while?
Next up – how likely are teams to be awarded penalties?
Since growing up watching Sutton and Hartson I’ve always thought the “50-50” decisions that go against us have had a bigger disruptive factor than the odd obviously bad call ever could.
It always seemed to me that when we had burly strikers go up for a long ball or goal kick they were penalised, while when the opposition lumped it up the park our defenders conceded the free kick.
The duals were the same, but the outcome of the decision more often than not went against us.
It’s probably not been as prevalent lately with Kyogo and other slighter strikers up top but that’s my enduring frustration with referees back in those days and I’m fairly certain it could be applied to ground duals that could be given either way also.
Hold that thought Ryan – an analysis of the modest foul coming up later in the week
Once again Alan, you reduce my table thumping, never a pen, deffo a pen to the numbers’ crunched. You are one of the hardest workers in the statistics/analysis area of the game. Honest mistakes, an excellent judgement of the game laws, agree or otherwise. However, you do help the mere supporting mortal a reality that is second to none.
Long may your work continue.
Can’t wait for next week’s YRef’s take.
You’d like to think that all this evidence could change things. But it can’t. The “patterns of assistance” towards Rangers exist because Scottish football is designed to assist Rangers; because Scotland itself, since the 16th century, has been designed to assist and promote the cultural, racist suprematism which Rangers now embody.
All we can do is wait for April 7th, when we get another chance to beat them, their referees, their football association, and their whole miserable, stinking empire of shit.
Quite the nihilistic take David
i understand the sentiment
reason and data will help but crucially we need to get outsiders involved in the governance and supporters of ALL clubs to recognise what is in front of their faces
Hmmm.
We need to get people to recognise what’s in front of their faces (?)
I have something in front of me which, since I was a wee boy, I’ve called “The Athletico Madrid Effect”.
I was at Parkhead the night in 1974 when Celtic but booted off the pitch. The same game was shown live in Madrid, but Celtic were the villains there.
You see people don’t just “see” stuff. It gets processed in their minds by means of a selective mimetic process which excludes whatever is necessary for the continued survival of their particular mindset.
That’s not “nihilist”. ( Although I take the label in good grace ). It’s realist.
You will not change the fact that some people are Muppets by proving that they are.
This is my second effort to post a reply. Hope I’m not repeating myself.
I take the label “nihilist” in good grace.
There’s a thing which, since 1974, I’ve called “The Athletico Madrid Effect”.
The first leg at Parkhead (I was there) was shown on tv in Madrid. And over there it was Celtic who were the villains.
Fair play to trying to get people to recognise what’s in front of their faces.
But you don’t change a Muppet by proving it’s a Muppet.
You are doing good work Alan. The ACSOM podcast was great too/
Cheers buddy – hope you are well
I wonder if fear, or intimidation ( behind the scenes ) plays a part in this ?. I will give a example of my thinking on that.
We all know the old Rangers were liquidated and a new club was formed. Now can you name one sports journalist based in Scotland who has ever admitted it is a new club, or any media pundits or any SFA official, none as far as I know. Just remembered Jim Spence spoke the truth, apart from Jim, none.
The reason in my opinion most of them peddle the lie is fear of retribution from some of the nutters over there. If Celtic had been liquidated do you think they would have all peddled the same club lie ? some probably would have, but some would have had no problem in saying or writing it was a new club in a patronizing manner of course.
Great work Alan, it must take a considerable amount of your spare time. If anyone has a spare ten minutes have a read of this article about a NBA ref in America who was caught cheating. When the FBI arrested him he admitted it, and added he was not the only ref cheating. The ref agreed to wear a wire with the view of gathering evidence on other officials, the NBA top brass made sure that would not happen by giving the story to the papers before the feds could get the goods on the other officials. Alan this ref affected the games by calling fouls on one of the teams, very interesting story and worth a read.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25980368/how-former-ref-tim-donaghy-conspired-fix-nba-games
Hi Martin
i wouldn’t even use dramatic words like “fear” or “intimidation”.
Just think about your own work experiences and the extent to which at some level folk adjusted behaviours and attitudes such that they enhanced their propensity to “get on”.
Great article – couldn’t happen in Scotland though, because……………..
Statistical breakdown by the Lancashire Whistler :
The current worst-case scenario has Rangers being liquidated and a new club rising from the ashes but being made to start anew from the fourth tier of Scottish football.”
Kevin McKenna, The Observer, 9th February 2012
“Of course a new club will rise from the ashes of Rangers FC.”
Kevin McKenna, The Observer, 1st July, 2012
“Last night Group 9 Sports released a statement on their website indicating that, if successful, they’d aim to emerge from administration by setting up Rangers as a new company. Kennedy will not stand back and allow the club’s 140 years of history to be wiped out. And he insisted any such move could put Rangers out of existence completely.” Keith Jackson, Daily Record, 4th March 2012
“Administrators Duff and Phelps raised the possibility at the weekend of the current club being liquidated, meaning a new club could be formed to inherit Rangers’ assets.”
Ian Black, Evening Times, 6th March 2012
“Ally McCoist will accept the end of 140 years of unbroken existence for Rangers, providing a new version of one of the world’s most famous clubs emerges in strength.”
Roddy Forsyth, Daily Telegraph, 31st March 2012
“They’ll slip into liquidation within the next couple of weeks with a new company emerging but 140 years of history, triumph and tears, will have ended. No matter how Charles Green attempts to dress it up, a newco equals a new club. When the CVA was thrown out Rangers as we know them died. They were closed and a newco must start from scratch.”
Jim Traynor, Daily Record 13th June 2012
“Some Rangers fans believe the club’s history, which would end with liquidation, must be protected but there is a shameful part of that history which they should want to forget and any newco should make it clear a new beginning means exactly that. A new club open to all from the very beginning.”
Jim Traynor, Daily Record, 13th April 2012
“And I believe concern over the new club’s finances has prompted Brian Kennedy to make a £5.6million bid for a controlling interest.”
Jim Traynor, Daily Record, 23rd June 2012
“Green bought Rangers and their assets yesterday for £5.5million, just hours after Smith revealed he was spearheading a group to buy the new club.”
Jim Traynor, Daily Record, 15th July 2012
“McCoist and Green are committed to opposing any move to have history books rewritten even though they accepted they had to begin again as a new concern after Rangers, the club with history, slipped into liquidation and closed. That should mean the titles aren’t really any of their business. But on the other hand, the SPL refused to hand over £2m, which should have gone to Rangers for finishing second last season, pointing out that the club no longer exists.”
Jim Traynor, Daily Record, 3rd September 2012
“Charles Green attended the SPL meeting and has a £5.5m deal in place to form a new club should the CVA fail.”
David Friel, The Sun, 31st May 2012
“The liquidator overseeing the current club’s extinction”…“Whether Rangers, as a new club formed by Green, are accepted into the SPL, and on what terms, is to be determined by the clubs.”
David Conn, The Guardian, 12th June 2012
“The formation of Rangers in March 1872 was a walk in the park – its death in June 2012 a shambolic slide into the abyss…However, as a result of appalling mismanagement they no longer boast an unbroken line to the past. The emotional ties will remain forever but historical strings are severed. In time, they may weave a new history that might start with the Third Division title in 2013.”
Gary Ralston, The Daily Record, 13th June 2012
“I wanted to be able to confirm that, yes, their derbies really were the greatest game on earth, rather than tell the truth that they were bile-flecked re-enactments of centuries-old religious wars. It’s a cause of genuine sadness that this has never come to pass, so maybe that’s one of the things new owner Charles Green could look at as he rebuilds a new club from the rubble of liquidation.”
Bill Leckie, The Sun, 13th June 2012
“Air of unreality as 140 years of history is formally ended in less than nine minutes…The Rangers creditors drifted in through Exit 50 at Ibrox Stadium just before 10am and by 10.09am they were on their way out. In those few minutes 140 years of history had been rubbed out”.
Teddy Jamieson and Richard Wilson The Herald, 15th June 2012
“PFA Scotland insist Rangers players are not obliged to join Charles Green’s new club under the Transfer of Undertakings (Protection of Employment) regulations (TUPE), which ensure all employees are given the chance to join the new company under the same terms.”
Greig Thomas, Daily Record, 15th June 2012
“Union reps at PFA Scotland believe the new club has no hold over anyone who doesn’t want their contract to transfer across from the now defunct Rangers.”
Robert Grieve, The Sun, 17th June 2012
“The fresh dispute comes in the middle of negotiations with the Scottish Football Association for a membership that would allow the new club to start life in Division Three.”
Chris McLaughlin, BBC, 17th July 2012
“Sevco are still waiting to hear if the new club have been granted SFA membership ahead of their entry into the Third Division.”
Paul Hughes, The Sun, 18th July 2012
“And IF they are allowed to enter the top division an independent commission will decide if it’s the old club or the new club that has a case to answer over EBTs.”
Paul Hughes and Robert McAulay, The Sun, 19th July 2012
“Any deal cannot be finalised until the Scottish FA grants membership to the new club.”
Darrell King, Evening Times, 20th July 2012
“No other completely new club would have been allowed to enter the bottom tier. It is also true that no other new club would have been even considered for membership of the SPL.”
Ewing Grahame, Daily Telegraph, 22nd July 2012
Etc etc etc….
Verdict : Yer Clubs deid mate and lest we forget
The podcast on patterns of assistance is the best and most informative piece of research I have come across . All delivered in such a way that no objective observer could fault .
It deserves to be a tool to effect change , but changing an entrenched establishment is no easy matter .
it starts with shining a light on it though , which you have done brilliantly .
Thanks Jaycee – appreciated
it will be outsiders that force change, entrenched culture is very change resistant as you say
I doubt this “Yorkshire Whistler” is as impartial as you make out ??
Hi Willie = thanks for reading and engaging
what is your evidence for that over the weeks of testimony he has provided?
Great work Alan, please keep up the momentum. Lets hope the suits within Celtic Park decide to make a stand.
Alan, in the cover image of your “refs are pure cheatin” article you show the infamous Goldson close-range handball incident
where it is literally identical to the IFAB definitional explanation of what is NOT a foul ie. when hands are raised instinctively to protect the face from a close range shot.
A decision 100% correct with regards the laws of the game – yet it’s the poster child of your campaign to prove biased, corrupted officiating
You see the colossal irony, right?
Alex – finally! All week TRFC twitter has been trying to find a “gotcha” and you did it Alex. The one exception that disproves 100% of everything I have written. Some lad, Alex – well done!
Ach, I just had to get a Connor Goldson picture in there somewhere – my blog I’ll do what I want.
Cheers Alex – thanks for reading and hope you are well.
Fair enough, no reflection on the merits of the wider case being made..
Just deeply ironic to use the starkest example, in recent times, of 99.99% of Celtic fans convinced they are the victims of the most grievous crime of refereeing injustice, and being entirely in error.
Like penning an article extolling the moral superiority of the Royal Family and choosing Prince Andrew at Epstein’s for the image trailing it
“fair enough”
then drone on about the same point again!
Alex, wake up – we’ve moved on lad