The first in the series analysing the Official Celtic Player of the Year candidates focusses on Callum McGregor.
Appearances
Only Hart has more minutes’ contribution this season than McGregor. His 3858 minutes equates to over 42 matches over 46 appearances.
The 4 games he lost to injury in September coincided with Celtic’s worst form. A heavy facial knock in early January saw his forced into wearing a protective facial covering – the CalMask was born. Also missing 1 game with a COVID scare, he has been absent for 7 matches in total.
He has only been rested once, at home to Raith Rovers in the Scottish Cup.
McGregor has 4 goals and 4 assists as well as 2 penalty misses.
Bhoy of the Match
I have had him my Celtic By Numbers Bhoy of the Match on 6 occasions.
Key Performance Stats
McGregor has a unique role in the team given he is the most defensive midfielder and plays virtually every game. Occasionally he has played as a number 8 with either Bitton or McCarthy filling in as the 6. McCarthy has over 700 minutes but is included, and Bitton, and Brown from last season are the benchmarks.
Defensive performance is measured primarily by Defensive Action Success Rate and Possession Won from Defensive Actions (%),
This shows that McGregor was never going to replace Brown in terms of playing style, whilst picking up the captain mantle.
He defensive outputs are also much less than the current alternative “6s”, McCarthy and Bitton.
However, if we look at McGregor’s similar stats from prior seasons, we can see how he has adapted his role.
Small steps to being more defensive.
He is only 13th in the squad for Pressures in the SPFL (9.64 per 90m) but 6th for Pressure Regains (0.43 per 90m).
But the fact is, he does the job Postecoglou wants him to do. Pressing ability, and passing competency are weighted more heavily than some of the traditional virtues of a deep lying midfielder. The McCarthy signing remains a very strange one considering the demands of the system.
Ball Progression
To assess Ball Progression, I look for Ball Carries (pack dribbles + progressive runs) and Pack Passes (forward passes that take opponents out the game). I include the other central midfielders for comparison.
Whilst Bitton is the most effective long passer, and Rogic the most productive ball carrier, McGregor is a nice balance of both.
His Pack Passing numbers have increased year on year. This is part role, part playing style as well as maturing performance.
Creativity
McGregor has been a winger and attacking midfielder for most of his Celtic career and so his Assist, Expected Assists and Chance Creation data has reduced over time.
Therefore, it is probably fairer to compare him with the number 6s again, including Brown from his last season.
For this, I’ll use Expected Assists and Chances Created – volume and quality of assisting passes.
McGregor’s best xA was from 18/19 with 0.28 and he is currently around half of that, again due to a different role.
Amongst players in the defensive midfield position, he is the most creative player this season and in comparison, to Brown.
His xG this season is 0.15 which is up on last season, but again down on his 19/20 season 0.22.
Summary
McGregor’s non measurable contributions as captain should be mentioned. He has visibly grown into the role held by Brown for so long. His interviews are measured, insightful and confident. On the pitch, he is the type of player that leads through example.
He has grown into an impressive young man and one the manager clearly has faith in. A first trophy success in the League Cup seemed to lift any burden of responsibility he was feeling.
On the pitch, he fulfils a precise role as deep playmaker, linking the play and keeping the tempo. Both are important aspects of Postecoglou’s game plan and Celtic probably don’t have anyone else that can perform that specific role as well.
As always, McGregor has been a key contributor with his sheer effort and minutes on the pitch.
He is an incredibly consistent performer and would be a worthy recipient of your vote, if you so choose!
Next up: Tom Rogic
“Pressing ability, and passing competency are weighted more heavily than some of the traditional virtues of a deep-lying midfielder. The McCarthy signing remains a very strange one considering the demands of the system.” Do you have stats for McCarthy on these, even from his time in England? On the data presented here – where he’s clearly the strongest defensively and the equal of McGregor in creativity – you’ve made a case for McCarthy to start rather than question why we signed him.
Thanks Andy and fair comment
I swithered over whether to include McCarthy as his minutes are limited. His data from recent seasons shows he is a quite limited destructive midfielder. I wrote at length about him here – http://celticbynumberscom.ipage.com/mccarthy-a-very-specific-skillset/
Thanks. He still looks good from those numbers, which backs my overall impression of him. Don’t know the extent of his injuries but an EPL level midfielder who’s willing to come to Celtic doesn’t come around too often so still hoping to see this one work out. Ideguchi looks a more perplexing signing for that role given how physically slight he is, hard to imagine him coming on to close the game out at Ibrox.
Great read as always Alan.
McGregor is perfect in the No 6 role for Postecoglou in domestic football however I’m not convinced he’s the best in there against better opposition (IE Europe) where I believe No.8 could be his best position.
Whether that is a McGregor (at No 6) or Postecoglou’s system that is the issue (for Europe) is open to debate.
I agree Tony. Against higher quality opposition Calmac may be better suited as an 8 with the likes of Bitton, Mcarthy or even the lesser spotted Ideguchi playing as the 6. Guchi, from the small amounts of time he has played looks fast and an accurate passer of the ball. We will have to wait and see. I feel there is no need for a defensive midfielder against most Scottish opposition therefore Calmac does an excellent job. His control, movement, vision and tempo are of the highest standard.