The harsh realities of Champions League football against pretenders for the crown was presented once more to a disciplined and organised Celtic side. Bayern Munich, with several star players rested and injured, had sufficient resources to go home with three points.
As always, please consult the Glossary if any term definitions are needed.
The Learning Curve
In the Champions League campaign, Celtic had struggled to balance a high pressing game that brings success in Scotland, with a more circumspect defensive shape out of possession. Here, they displayed evidence of learning and development. Celtic without the ball either pressed or sat in depending on the position of the ball, and the triggers evident to press.
The home side left three at the back in possession, trying to create connections with the mobile pair of McGregor and Armstrong supporting Sinclair and Dembele.
Out of possession, when Bayern Munich were in control and facing forward, Celtic sat back into a compact 4-5-1. The Germans struggled to get between the bodies, as Celtic had found against Kilmarnock at the weekend. This launch pad allowed Celtic to break in the first half to good effect, with chances for Armstrong and Dembele.
The players seemed comfortable and understanding of the needs of the system. It requires concentration and collective decision making as regards when to press and when to fall back. But it is what good teams do.
Familiar Failings
Simple mistakes undo defensive organisation. A promising opening 20 minutes was ruined when Ulreich’s long ball from the back could bounce over the Celtic defences’ heads, and Coman was too quick for Gordon’s charge. The luck that always seems to favour the big money sides was with Bayern Munich again as Coman handled, missed by all six officials.
Boyata and Bitton should not be caught under a high ball, it’s a basic. Gordon, desperate to be proactive, should have trusted Forrest to track his man and apply pressure to any subsequent shot. Then do your job and keep the ball out.
Celtic won’t prevail again against the billionaire boy’s clubs with defending like this.
Patience
Not a lot happened as far as goal incident in the second half, with both teams having 1 in-box possession up to the 70th minute. Bayern Munich seemed content to control and not over commit. Celtic were patient, probing for an opening. Between the 44th and 67th minutes there were no shots from within the boxes.
Celtic seemed roused by the 67th Lions tribute. And a series of pressure points, where Celtic raised the pace and intensity, caught out the Germans.
A series of small actions, but a concerted effort to apply collective pressure, paid off. The quality of the Forrest pass and McGregor finish are again what good sides do at this level when they sense momentum in their favour.
Back to Reality
A couple of small incidents, if played out differently, could have seen Celtic withstand the immediate raising in Bayern Munich intensity levels, and re-establish their foothold in the game at 1-1.
Firstly, Tierney was fouled at the corner flag when clearing the ball. The referee puts his whistle to his mouth, but when the loose ball falls to Brown, he plays advantage. Brown immediately gave the ball away, and the advantage, and opportunity to release the pressure, was gone.
Moments later, Robben was played into the box, and although the linesman flagged offside, the referee waved play on as Gordon had collected Robben’s cross. Gordon immediately played it out to Lustig. Had he either been given a free kick, or just slowed the game down for a minute to take the sting out of the Bayern Munich revival, Celtic may have been better set to withstand the pressure that then built. Lustig gave the ball away again, and Bayern Munich did not leave the Celtic half until they had scored.
The Coman / Alaba connection on the left is productive, and full of pace. There was criticism for Bitton, but I believe he was defeated by a good cross, and an opponent coming from behind him. That opponent is also an ex centre half and highly accomplished header of the ball, and brave. Martinez scored where any of the other smaller Bayern Munich central midfielders would probably have not.
Small margins again, but better game management, recognising the momentum shift back to Bayern Munich, and Celtic could have taken the pressure off themselves and still had time to go again for a winner.
We’ve Come a Long Way
The game numbers show that this was a close match by all dimensions.
Bayern Munich’s pass completion was very similar to the return leg. But they tended to have possession in less dangerous areas, and Celtic controlled their possession much more effectively. By all measures above, it was a tight affair.
Bayern Munich edged the Expected Goals count (by 0.104 of a goal!). Both sides had 4 shots on target, whilst Celtic were more successful getting the ball into the box for scoring chances, 8-4. Despite not having a recognised striker on the pitch (and how Celtic fans agonised over that scenario earlier in the season), the Germans managed to score from 22% of all their shots compared to Celtic’s 8%. Clinical finishing is another pre-requisite at this level.
In terms of creativity:
Celtic created the better opportunities, and had all the chances been taken, expected assists tell us Celtic led 1.402 to 0.857. The one Big Chance was McGregor’s goal. I don’t count Armstrong’s as it was a half volley with little time to react – he did not have the ball under control.
Celtic “out packed” the Germans, which given the German provenance of the Packing / Impect system of measurement, is commendable. McGregor just shaded the Total Impect scores for Celtic with 78, Forrest on 74. Bitton led the way with 56 Pass Impect, from 10 passes. McGregor, asked to play behind Dembele when Celtic had the ball, put Sinclair’s performance in a similar role to shame. McGregor scored 32 Receive Impect compared to 14 by Sinclair.
The home side managed 15 in box possessions compared to 10 by the Germans. Forrest led the way with 6 of those.
All the above points to a draw or narrow Celtic win. When analysing the defensive data, the defensive error count of 5-1 illustrates a major reason the favourites triumphed again. Celtic did a great job physically, winning possession back 38 times to their opponents 21. Both sides effected 24 clearances indicating neither defence was under significantly more pressure than the other.
Ultimately, Celtic had the chance to go 1-0 and didn’t take their chances, whilst Bayern Munich punished defensive errors again. Game management and experience were then major factors as Celtic failed to cope with equalising, and the visitors saw out the remaining minutes expertly.
Bhoy of the Match
Lustig led the way defensively, with a Defensive Action Success Rae (DASR) of 90%, and 3 clearances. He also won possession back 5 times without losing it in a challenge. Furthermore, he led the team with 85 successful passes.
But, for one of his best performances in a Celtic shirt, the award goes to Forrest.
Outstanding analysis work of every game. Great reading.
Thank you
Outstanding analysis as per usual. HH
As always a comprehensive but concise overview of the game. The most interesting aspect for me was the overview of the stats suggesting that we should not have been beaten, and that is the difference at this level, one mistake can change the result. You just can not get away with basic errors that leave you exposed.
Thanks yet again, great work.
Always enjoy your reports and thank you for the time you put infor this. So near yet so far but we seem to be progressing
Been arguing with people about what system we played…3 at the back….5 at the back…or a 4 that became a 3…glad u agree with me
100% accurate we must cut our defensive mistakes another jo jo
Type Centre back required,although I thought nir Bitton was outstanding for the vast majority of the Game.