Celtic and the curse of the right back! As the Champions League qualifiers progress, Ralston remains the only recognised right back in the squad. Is he ready to replace Lustig?
Firstly, let’s remember that Lustig is a highly experienced internationalist who served Celtic for 7 ½ seasons. The 75-time capped Swede appeared in multiple international tournaments as well as racking up 16 trophies at Celtic Park.
Ralston, on the other hand, is 20-year-old academy prospect. Because he has made appearances in each of the last four seasons, some may have the perspective that he is more seasoned than he is. But across four seasons, he has amassed a mere 995 minutes, equivalent to 11.06 full matches. He has never had more than 477 minutes in a season.
Long story short, we are not comparing an apple with a pear. More accurately, a highly decorated and vastly experienced international player with a young prospect.
Lustig has kept his place as first choice right back ahead of Matthews, Fisher, Janko, Gamboa and Toljan in his time. Ralston has never appeared in more than three consecutive matches. Under 1000 minutes compared to nearly 22,000 for Celtic.
But, with over 10 matches worth of data, Ralston is due a review.
Defending
DASR and Possesion Win %
The two key composite metrics for defending are Defensive Action Success Rate (%) and Possession Win (%). Full definitions are available in the Glossary.
Possession Win % is level at 75% and measures the extent to which defensive actions result in Celtic retaining the ball.
Lustig leads on the DASR% with 73% to 68%. There isn’t a lot of % difference between the top defenders and the rest so 5% of a gap is significant.
Digging into that a bit, we can see the volume of challenges and defensive actions.
All numbers are per 90m.
The most interesting aspect is that Ralston completes more actions across the board (won and lost) than Lustig. Now there is probably an interesting debate to be had on the nature of defending. That is, the absence of actions due to risk avoidance (for example by good positioning) can be an indicator of good defending. But also, the younger man may be more energetic around the field and engaged in more active defending.
All numbers are per 90m.
Ralston simply engages the opposition for more than Lustig, to the tune of nearly 3 more challenges per 90m.
Interceptions and Clearances
Interceptions and Clearances are measures of more reactive defending, responding to opposition danger.
Given the data above, it is perhaps surprising that Lusting effects more Clearances and Interceptions than Ralston. Interceptions can be a good indicator of anticipation and positioning. Clearances tend to be higher when teams are under more pressure, when urgent defensive action is needed.
What this also means is that the numbers above in DASR are reflecting that Ralston makes many more challenges for the ball. As we can see above.
Fouls and Errors
All numbers are per 90m.
Given the number of challenges he engages in, it is not surprising that Ralston gives away more fouls than the more circumspect Swede.
And Ralston also has a much lower error rate with 0.18 per 90 compare to 0.43 for Lustig. This has come creeping up for Lustig as his agility and reaction speed have declined.
The key takeaway is that the Swede has the advantage in success with defensive actions even though Ralston is the more actively engaged defender. Lustig’s error rate is creeping up.
Overall, Ralston is a more active defender with the Swede relying on positioning and experience as you might expect.
Creativity
As mentioned many times, a Celtic full back is a key attacking outlet. Therefore, the ability to play through the first lines of defence, and to make a difference from wide, is part of the job description.
In terms of basic passing statistics, Lustig completes 63.89 passes per 90m compared to 67.57 by Ralston. The younger man is also more accurate, completing 89% compared to 86% by Lustig.
Much of that disparity can probably be explained by the fact Lustig puts more risk into his passing. He was credited with 10 assists last season, and had 46 in his Celtic career.
All numbers are per 90m.
Lustig has a slight edge in Expected Assists per 90m (xA) with 0.14 to 0.12. And overall, he creates 0.96 chances per 90m compared to 0.81 by Ralston.
Strangely Ralston has the higher overall Assist per 90m rate with 0.18 compared to 0.16 by PC Lustig.
Where Lustig has the biggest advantage over Ralston is in deep ball progression. I measure this using Packing. The Impect score reflects the number of opponents you take out the game with forward passes. The higher the number, the more opponents are removed from play – i.e. are behind the ball after the pass is completed.
All numbers are per 90m.
Lustig is twice as effective at bypassing the opposition with forward passes than Ralston. And this represents the biggest single performance differentiator between the two.
Why is it important? Because Celtic normally, in the SPFL, play against deep and compact defences. This ability to break the opposition lines and get the ball to the more talented attacking players is a key foundation to build attacks against such strategies.
Further to this, last season Ralston managed 2.02 Secondary Assist passes per 90m compared to 6.23 by Lustig. These are the passes before the assisting pass. They establish the attack. Lustig produces 3 times more of these types of passes.
Summary
Directly comparing the 20-year-old Ralston with the 32-year-old 75 capped, multi-trophied Lustig is patently unfair on the younger man.
But Ralston is the only man standing for the right back berth. There are signs he can match Lustig’s defensive prowess. There were signs Lustig was regressing, and the more energetic and defensively active Ralston may match and exceed his defensive metrics over time.
Ralston has even matched Lustig’s handy goal return with 2 so far in his 900+ minutes. They are close on assists too. Overall Ralston has a Scoring Contribution per 90m of 0.36 whilst Lustig has maintained 0.25 over many more games.
Where Lustig has a competitive advantage is in ball progression and building a platform for Celtic to attack. He gets the ball forward more effectively by a considerably degree.
Celtic may feel they need a more seasoned performer in that position than Ralston as first choice for now. But there is no reason to disregard Ralston completely assuming he can continue to develop and improve.
You do know Lustig has left?
Ehhhh yes
Who else would you suggest I compare Ralston with?
Ralston has not been given a proper run in the team to prove himself. I think there is definitely a player in there.
Another great article, and one I’m really glad you’ve highlighted. Notwithstanding the need to support the right back position, I’ve always felt Ralston looked like he could become a good player. Throwing him in to occasional matches over the last few years (including Barca dont forget) has given a skewed view of his potential, leading I think to some unfair criticism. I would prefer to see him get a run in the side and at least get a fair idea of his potential. I’ve always thought him to be more credible than Gamboa and I cant see why he wouldn’t be a better alternative to somebody like Toljan. If he can improve slightly on that final pass, then why not?
Excellent (as usual).If you ever get the time do me a favour.I believe that as a team we still miss Stuart Armstrongs’ contribution.I felt that his threat through the middle created space for Sinclair and Forrest and that Sinclair especially has suffered from his absence.Can you analyse team stats with and without him rather than individual performances ?
My biggest complaint about Lustig was his positional sense in many games.
He was found drifting inside all too often creating space for Wingers and Wingbacks to exploit which they did with regularity especially in the last few Seasons.
Against top sides in Europe he would get caught out at the back post ball watching at times or failing to keep up with the play.
My opinion was then as it is now he would have been better payed as a RCB in a 3 than a RB in a flat back 4.
Data only goes so deep and can concentrate too much on specific areas I think and when it comes to positioning on the Park can be a bit open to manipulation as you point out Alan.
I agree on re have been times where he’s looked a solid defender though I like you think he probably needs a proper run of games to prove whether he is up to it at Celtic or not.
The fact Lenny has opted to field Ajer in there ahead of a fit Ralston speaks volumes on that score as he obviously doesn’t rate him that highly at the moment.
Adequate backup for games against weaker opposition but I doubt he will be first choice any time soon.
I agree on Ralston there have been times’