The Science of Fitness
There is no doubt conditioning a modern athlete to play football is a complex business. Sports science continues to evolve, and Celtic as a club embrace the most modern thinking and facilities. That is not to say what Celtic do is always right. There are as many opinions as sports scientists. Consider the simplest action of a footballer – running. How many acres of rain forest / innocent pixels have been sacrificed with different opinions telling runners how to run in a straight line faster and more effectively? Football requires more complex movements and a mixture of strength, speed, core stability, aerobic and anaerobic fitness, stamina, flexibility not to mention mental strengthening. It may be a science but one size would not fit all given the variety of footballer’ shapes and sizes and of the trainers’ opinions.
Conditioning a player to perform over a season that starts on 12th July and ends (hopefully!) on May 27th is not straightforward. Most athletes cannot “peak” continuously, and the vagaries of the fixture list (nine games in December; three in January) must be factored in. Celtic will undoubtedly have tailored conditioning towards a goal of getting to and competing in the Champions League – this is several levels above domestic standards and therefore presents a whole different set of challenges. However, that campaign being over several challenges remain.
We now reach the “sharp” end of the season where trophies are won and relegation battles crystallise. For Celtic, specifically, this means getting over the line to a 6th title in a row, and challenging for the Scottish Cup (maximum two games).
Across Celtic cyberspace the last two performances have been met with questions over whether the team is burning out early (extreme), or certain players are (read on) or “faithful through and through, we’re winning, who cares?”. Whilst Celtic By Numbers is not an exercise in criticising Celtic players, I am here to study the data, for better or for worse.
A Balanced Workload?
I am immediately going to dismiss 23 players from this analysis because they have played less than 2000 minutes – the equivalent of just over 22 full 90m matches. I would struggle to convince anyone, including myself, that a modern footballer would be reaching burn out competing in 22 matches or less over a season.
The following players have completed more than 2000 minutes so far this season.
I am similarly going to discount Armstrong, Forrest and Bitton from consideration as they have all played less than the equivalent of 30 full 90m matches, and all average 70m or less per appearance – Forrest is, on average, only on the park for 60m per match.
Also, I will discount Gordon. Whilst I am sure Gordon is as fit as a goalkeeper should be, the demands on him are not as physically taxing as an outfield player. Goalkeepers commonly play 40-50+ matches per season.
The remaining players have played over 2700 minutes, and in most cases average over 80m per appearance. Those players have been the backbone of the Rodgers reign so far.
Since the January winter break, has the performance level of the backbone players decreased – is there evidence of fatigue impacting performance?
The Backbone, By Numbers
Scott Brown (4067 mins)
The captain is a becoming a bit of a phenomenon. Whilst there has been to-ing and fro-ing regarding his Scotland future, he has decided he can take the additional work load. No Celtic player has played more minutes than Brown. He is the first to break through the 4000-minute barrier. Last season he completed 3143 mins in an injury hit campaign. Has Brown’s form dipped since the winter break?
Brown is averaging 6 more passes per game than pre-break. His passing accuracy has dipped 3%, but his overall PEI has only dipped 1%. He has won 0.84 less tackles per 90m and his tackle success has dipped 2%. He has increased his intercept rate by 0.42 per 90m but his intercept success rate has crashed by 13% now maintaining possession with only 40% of intercepts. He is conceding less fouls and effecting 0.65 less clearances per game.
Offensively, albeit from a small base, he has increased his attacking output slightly – increasing goals per 90m by 0.02 and assists per 90 by 0.05.
VERDICT – This is a game of small margins – although attacking output has increased very slightly, in his core metrics there are signs of performance regression. Give Scotland a rest Scott!
Mikael Lustig (3524 mins)
Now hitting his 30s, an active Swedish internationalist, and a history of injury. Nevertheless, the full back has played the equivalent of 40 matches this season. Not the rampaging wing back like Tierney, Lustig often shuffles in one to make a back three. Therefore, he does not expend as much energy on lung busting wing runs. Regressing since the break?
Lustig’s passing has increased also by 5 passes per 90m and he has maintained his 88% accuracy. His PEI has increased to 82%, a 3% increase. He is winning 1.09 less challenges per 90m and has seen an 8% drop in challenge success rate. He is also intercepting less (by 0.34 per 90m) but being successful with 10% more intercepts. Lustig is conceding more fouls (up 0.24 per 90m) and effecting 1.5 less clearances per 90m.
The wonder assist v St Johnstone has boosted his attacking output as has the goal vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle. Although his goal rate has gone up, he has attempted no dribbles post break, and is creating 0.2 less chances per 90m.
VERDICT – Small signs of regression. Needs to be monitored post international break after traveling with Sweden. Gamboa was coming onto a game and provides an opportunity to manage the big Swede’s time for the remainder of the season.
Moussa Dembele (3261 minutes)
Dembele is a big strong boy but still young. Last season for Fulham was his first full season of professional football and he completed 3360 minutes – the equivalent to 37.3 full matches. He is on track to surpass that milestone.
Post break Dembele scored 12 goals in 6 games. And although he has not scored in his last two games, talk of a slump would a little harsh. Pre break he scored 1 goal in over 700 minutes in November and December. His goals and assist per 90m pre break was 0.99 whilst post break it is 1.8.
VERDICT – Dembele may not have played well in the last two games, and not scored, but a magical first season is still unfolding. March on Moussa!
Scott Sinclair (3165 mins)
Sinclair has played more football this season than he has since 2011/12 for Swansea City in the English Premier League. This is only the 3rd “full” season he has played in his professional career. He is 28. He played 50 then 40 matches for Swansea City from 2010/11 to 2011/12. He should therefore not be burnt out, but then his body is not used to so many competitive minutes either.
Post break, Sinclair carried on as before. Overall his pass rate increased by 2.6 passes per 90m, although his accuracy dropped 2%. He is winning less challenges and less intercepts. His shot count has dropped by 1.1 per 90m and shot accuracy is down 11% to 28%. Despite that his goal per 90m has maintained, dropping very slightly to 0.5. He has created more chances (up 0.41 per 90m) and is creating 0.04 more assist per game. He is even completing more dribbles (up from 1.55 to 2.01 per 90m).
My caution with Sinclair is that if you just look at his last 3 games, his form appears to have dipped. His pass average has dropped to 16 per 90m. He hasn’t created a chance in the last 2 games, and has 1 goal and 1 assist against a tiring St Mirren in the last three. His passing in the last 2 games are his worst of the season at 62% and 65% accuracy – he averages 80%.
VERDICT – Whether it is loss of form, or tiredness not having played so much competitive football for 5 years, the warning signs are there. Sinclair is not away on international leave and two weeks training may well refresh him.
Erik Sviatchenko (2905 minutes)
After an early season injury, the robust Dane seemed to have forged the 1st choice partnership with Simunovic. Latterly, Sviatchenko has been in and out of the team as Rodgers has rotated his central defensive partners for Boyata since the break.
Surprisingly, his defensive numbers have generally improved post break. He is passing over 15 times more per 90m, whilst improving his pass accuracy by 1%. His PEI average has gone up a significant 3% largely boosted by the passing accuracy. He is winning a remarkable 9.05 challenges per match, up 2 challenges per 90m pre break. And he has maintained his tackle success ratio at 79%. His intercepts per 90m has gone down slightly but he is more accurate, keeping possession from 2% more than pre break. The slight blemish is that his error rate has gone up from 0.38 to 0.65 per 90m on the back of nervous performances in the Glasgow Derby, and in the Scottish Cup vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle.
VERDICT – There appears little wrong with the great Dane physically. In many respects his performance indicators have improved, some markedly. He is suffering from a greatly increased error rate, which may be classified as a dip in form and confidence. Being in and out the team may be contributing. Should be fine for the run in.
Kieran Tierney (2732 mins)
Young Tierney is not spared when he plays, lasting on average 88m per match. He had a bad injury pre-break and returned to the team post break against Albion Rovers. This is his second hard working season as he completed ¾ of the last campaign racking up 2830 minutes. He is only 19 and with international football now in his diary, is it time for a rest?
On the face of it, based on my cut off of the post winter break, you may conclude “No”. Tierney burst back into the team and has increased his passing output by 4.64 passes per 90m, increasing pass accuracy to 83%. His overall PEI has increased a massive 5% to 75%. His tackle rate has fallen very slightly (0.13 per 90m) as has his tackle success – down 12%. Also, he is effecting 1.67 less intercepts although his success rate has gone up 12%. He has massively reduced the number of clearances from 7.13 per 90m to 3.76.
As an attacking force, he scored his 1st goal of the season post break but his chance creation rate has fallen slightly (0.05 less chances but 9% less successful overall). His assist rate has fallen slightly by 0.04 per 90m. His dribble success rate has increased up to 1.97 per 90m from 1.39.
As with Sinclair, my caution on Tierney is that form has dropped markedly in the last 3 games. Barely involved against St Mirren (completed only 28 passes against an average of 52 per 90m), he gave the ball away 38 times against The Rangers and Dundee combined. He has only created 1 chance in the last 3 games, and completed 3 successful dribbles. His first defensive error post break nearly gifted Dundee a goal.
VERDICT – Away with Scotland, with three below par performances behind him, Tierney is a candidate for careful managing over the run in. Izaguirre will have been traveling with Honduras, but otherwise should be fresh. Tierney is a huge talent but the warning signs are there and some rest time may not be a bad thing.
Conclusion
Talk of mass squad burn out would be a gross exaggeration. 26 players in the squad have played less than 30 full 90m matches, most considerably less.
When you consider the back bone of the team – the players Rodgers relies upon game upon game, then there are signs certain individual players’ performances are regressing – this may be due to fatigue after a campaign that started in earnest on 12th July 2016. Specifically, Brown has had the highest work load, and now back with Scotland, would benefit from careful managing through the finishing strait. Similarly, Lustig, who is away with the Swedish national team.
Tierney and Sinclair have both played three games in row where their previous high standards have not been met. Tierney looked hollowed out away at Dundee. Both players could, perhaps, benefit from some rest to recapture their form. Sinclair is not away on international duty so hopefully that two week break will be beneficial. Tierney is still young, coming back from serious injury and operations, and we have an able deputy in Izaguirre.
The rest of the squad should be fine as regards fitness for the run in.
Another fine effort bringing metrics to bear on mere speculation