Rodgers goes for six in a row and Celtic a double Treble. As in 2016/17 Celtic faces the same opponent in a second Cup Final. Motherwell have drawn twice with Celtic already this season. Here’s what we’ve learned so far.
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For a very detailed tactical preview I recommend the excellent @thetenspace on the new and fresh Modern Fitba site.
The Season So Far….
Motherwell did not finish in the top six of the SPFL so there have been three league meetings and of course the League Cup final. Remarkably, three of the four meetings were in a week from 26th November to 2nd December 2017. The scores so far are two Celtic wins and two draws with a goals aggregate of 8-2 to Celtic.
Throughout this analysis it needs to be remembered that thanks to indiscretions from Kipre, Motherwell have played 81 minutes with 10 men. This equates to 22% of the total playing time between the two.
26th November 2017 – Celtic 2, Motherwell 0 League Cup Final, Hampden Park
Motherwell sat in deep and allowed Celtic possession. Celtic spent the first half recreating a common pattern of late – the Horseshoe of Futility. This involves cycling the ball down the flanks and back to the centre endlessly, probing or an opening. Celtic average 69% possession domestically but over 70% against Motherwell and 76% here.
The game sprang into life 4 minutes into the second half. Conceding possession deep in their own half, Motherwell seemed to panic and numerous players were caught out of position and then made bad decisions in recovery. Consequently, Forrest was allowed space in the box for an expert finish.
The game then became an end to end spectacular for 9 minutes. Four minutes after the Forrest goal, Gordon pulled off a world class save to deny a Moult diving header. Both sides created chances in a flurry of attacking exchanges.
In the 58th minute another lost possession saw Motherwell again in defensive disarray as Tierney’s fine pass to Dembele allowed the release of Sinclair. Kipre was the wrong side of Sinclair and a slight pull on his arm brought a penalty. Sinclair was wide of the goal on the left – it would not have been an easy chance – less than 10% on the xG model. Thomson’s decision to send off Kipre in addition to the penalty flabbergasted me (Kipre was lucky to escape red in the first half for a dreadful ankle breaker challenge on Dembele who lost his temper for the first time I can remember). There is no way this challenge warranted the triple jeopardy (penalty, man off and likely enforced substitution). Dembele did his usual cool in-his-own-time penalty thing and the game was effectively over. Roberts contributed an exciting cameo. McGregor was my Bhoy of the Match and controlled the possession – another pointer to his likely inclusion on Saturday.
29th November 2017 – Motherwell 1, Celtic 1 SPFL
The Steelmen did well to recover from the Cup Final disappointment and put on a spirited performance in taking a point from the Champions a mere three days later. It wasn’t much of a spectacle as Celtic were patient again, and Motherwell played for crosses and long balls. The home side didn’t have a shot on target until the 71st minute. Indeed, their goal on 81 minutes was an own goal – Lustig deflecting another long free kick into the net.
Sinclair came on as a substitute to raucous abuse from the home supporters angry at his part in the Cup Final penalty and sending off. He seemed very determined because of it and had the opportunity to show bottle in the 87th minute after McGregor was stupidly bundled over in the box by Rose whilst running away from goal. Sinclair smashed home the late penalty to raise the apoplexy levels.
It was generally a poor affair notable for being one of only six matches this season Celtic have salvaged a draw or win from a losing position.
2nd December 2017 – Celtic 5, Motherwell 1 SPFL
In 2014/15 Celtic played Dundee United four matches in a row including a League Cup final and a Scottish Cup tie and replay. The games were increasingly fractious but by the fourth match Dundee United, without Celtic’s superior squad resources, wee pretty much done in and Celtic were winning the games comfortably (4-0 and 3-0 for the latter two). Unsurprisingly a similar pattern emerged here as Celtic introduced Ajer, Ntcham, Hayes, Edouard and a refreshed Sinclair back into the line-up and a thumping win ensued.
Motherwell also opened up with a front three effectively with Cadden pushed right up and central with Moult and Bowman pushing wide. The ‘Well hoped to press Celtic but especially with Ajer in the line-up, were able to break the initial press with ease and launch attacks.
Celtic, with Edouard notching a hat-trick and with two late Forrest goals, cruised to a comfortable win. Remarkably, Celtic xG of 2.604 is the lowest in their four matches with this opponent this season. Celtic did not have to work hard for their win with only 8 shots on target and in terms of chances created xA of 1.997 – again the lowest of the four ties. It is a warning for Motherwell of what can happen if they are not on their A game.
18th March 2018 – Motherwell 0, Celtic 0 SPFL
Perhaps the most encouraging performance for the ‘Well came in the last meeting with Celtic. Despite going down to 10 men just before half time – another soft sending off for Kipre again from Craig Thomson – a point was rescued. In truth it had been a very even game to that point. Motherwell’s xG of 0.909 is their highest of the series.
The home side again pressed up high with Cadden in behind the front two – this time Main in for the departed Moult. They disrupted Celtic effectively. Celtic’s pass completion by half time was 81% compared to a norm of 89%. Cadden pushed onto Brown was an effective approach to stopping Celtic moves at source.
Down to 10, ‘Well resorted to a deep block in a 4-4-1. Rogic was Celtic’s most effective attacker but despite the numerical advantage Celtic only had 7 shots on target. Due to the home side sitting so deep and compact Celtic had the lowest Total Impect of 216 from the four games – the least effective playing through the opponent’s lines with forward passes. BUT, the Celtic chances were good – the highest xG of the four encounters of 2.753 yielded no goals (which helps to illustrate why single match xG is a bit misleading)!
In summary, by a selection of key attacking metrics here’s how the two sides have performed:
Whilst Celtic have unsurprisingly created 22 more chances, and 29 more shots inside the box, a large proportion of Motherwell’s shooting opportunities have come either directly from a set piece (4) or in the phase following a set piece (10). With three centre backs and two physical centre forwards this is not surprising. However Celtic also pose threats from such positions with three tall defenders and Dembele.
Conclusions from Past Encounters
Celtic have had virtually the same xA and xG values in all four games despite Motherwell trying different pressing and deep block strategies. Also, they have had either 7 or 8 shots on target and over 70% possession each time. Pressing onto Celtic will be very high risk for Motherwell as the 5-1 game showed. But the Steelmen have shown they can frustrate Celtic with the low and deep block. They then need to be able to get the ball forward to Main and Bowman with support. Set pieces will be a major focus area for Motherwell.
Celtic have deployed a variety of resources against Motherwell and although Edouard is injured, Dembele has been effective as has Rogic. McGregor seems to relish playing this side (Bhoy of the Match in two of the four games) and their nemesis Sinclair will be motivated from the bench. It will be Roberts emotional farewell and he will want to impress. I expect Celtic to have too strong a bench, and Motherwell need to pick their defensive strategy carefully.
In the third and final preview of the Cup Final I will look in more detail at Motherwell’s style of play compared to the rest of the SPFL. And if you thought this article was light on numbers, well this next one will be for you. Did I mention lots of graphs??
The Cha says
Great insight as always.
I wonder how Motherwell failing to make the top 6, where they would’ve had 5 games against better teams than them, as against 5 against worse opposition, will affect them, surely for the worse.
Their last decent game was against Aberdeen in the Semi-Final but given how awful the Dons were perhaps the league game against them on 4th April was the last time they had a comparable opposition.
Momentum is everything and I can’t believe that they’ll be anything but undercooked tomorrow.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
An interesting perspective. From my analysis I have no doubt Motherwell are nothing but a mid table SPFL team. IF Celtic match them for commitment and effort which surely is a given, the quality over 90m will prevail, especially from the bench where most of Celtic’s most productive players will be!
Gmac says
We should never be taken for fools and play for the shirt.Hail Hail
Tasp says
Scottish football is corrupt!!!!