Nine in a row is on a knife edge for Celtic as their winning streak was bent out of shape after a tense home encounter with nearest challengers The Rangers.
In truth a scrappy, mistake strewn game was very even and had Celtic applied the pressure by taking the lead from Christie’s penalty, the outcome may have been very different.
Box Stats
The key box stats illustrate:
Celtic had most of the possession, more ball in the opposition box, got through the lines to a greater extent (Team Impect) and ultimately the xG of 2.131 to 1.287 suggests a score reversal would have been, well, expected!
There are two stats that are useful in illustrating why the Ibrox club prevailed (well, three, the missed penalty being crucial!).
Effective Long Balls
Firstly, Defenders Packed shows that although Celtic built good first stage possession from the back to the full backs especially (Frimpong and Bolingoli lead the team with 10 Pack Receives each), they couldn’t progress the ball to the attacking players with sufficient regularity.
Johnston received 8 forward passes but the rest (Christie, Edouard and Forrest) tallied 9 between them). Simply, The Rangers were adept at leading Celtic down the flanks but then with the front three dropping wide, and Jack, Davis and Kamara doing a ton of coverage, could not progress from there often enough.
By contrast, The Rangers, although playing much fewer successful forward passes, were able to get Aribo, Kent and Morelos in possession more regularly. Between the three of them they received 22 Pack Passes and this directly led to two chances. Goldson found his forwards 4 times taking out a total of 23 players. The Rangers took out defenders with forwards passes 22 times compared to only 10 by Celtic.
The Rangers, with a lead to hold onto, were able to maintain shape. This is a well drilled and settled side. Despite the volume of matches being up there with Celtic as the most by any club in Europe, they remain freakily free of injury. Gerrard was the league’s arch tinkerer early in the SPFL season. But in the last 7 SPFL matches he has only made 10 changes.
They maintained a very disciplined 4-3-3 narrow shape and admirable work rate to hound Celtic when the came near half way. Forster was allowed to distribute freely – 11 open play passes and 0 given away. Celtic struggled then to make headway from the halfway line.
Recoveries
The other key stat that highlights The Rangers approach is Recoveries. A recovery is when after a challenge or clearance or otherwise generated lose ball, the ball is taken into possession.
Whereas Celtic recovered the ball 99 times, for The Rangers it was 111. This number will be high against teams who press effectively or who play to compete on second balls. Think Cluj – 154 recoveries.
The Rangers shape is predicated on maintaining consistent and minimal distance thus a team mate is often in close proximity when a header or challenge or clearance is to be battled for. Essentially, they were more effective in winning the “second ball” i.e. the second action after the pass or challenge.
With Celtic trying to stretch the game, there was more spacing between their players and less chance of picking up the lose balls.
The Rangers made use of longer passes to the front three more effectively than Celtic, and thus got their attacking players into the game more often. Celtic failed to consistently play through a narrow and compact defensive alignment.
Conclusion
Ultimately Allan McGregor had to make two very good saves and Davis cleared two off the line whilst Forster had nothing much to do outside the goals. But Celtic need to find a way of exerting better control in these matches and find a solution to the compact press.
The boot room brains trust needs to change approach or nine in a row will soon disappear.
Ultimately it’s the score that counts, we had players off it all over the park with only 1 or 2 to get pass mark’s,ship out any who are not up for the fight and get some quality help in,I also think we were unlucky with right back and left winger injuries,they could and would have made a difference,let’s show them why we are top.
Thanks again for an excellent article! It is funny how the final score affects the narrative – it was as the stats suggest a pretty even game but due to the result Sevco ‘dominated’.
In your opinion what would be the best way for Celtic to improve against the system they play? Do we have the players who could implement the new strategy?
Happy New Year and I look forward to your future posts!
rx
Thank you Rachel and HNY.
I’d match up their 433 and trust better players will prevail.
I think we have over rated the strength of our squad, we have allowed our noisy neighbours to catch up and 9 in a row looks more ominous now, and I fear that if a offer of 25 million for Edourd comes in ,the board would sell him , oh how I wish I’m wrong
Fantastic analysis. The game was tight, but I’m thinking that a 4-4-2 att would have been a good formation from the start. If we can get Sporar, that might just be something that can counter the 4-3-3 narrow press. Ensuring that there is always players ready to receive the ball. Or you could play the compact 4-4-2 diamond and essentially leave the right and left backs to mark the Sevco wingers out of the game, while we play through the middle with Christie behind two strikers.
Thanks Jack. Good points well made. I’d prefer the diamond option with Christie as the 2nd striker
Followed Celtic for 48 years now and it saddens me how quick so called Celtic fans turn on the team. We are by far the best team in Scotland, We need to unite more now than ever, so much anti Celtic people out there who will do anything to halt Celtic success. Stand strong, stand true and we will overcome all and every victory will be so much sweeter with the pain that others will feel.
Will state one thing now, it the Celtic support dident think we were in a title race before, they know now for sure we are now. Have said for ages that wee need another striker to help big Eddie out, and really do hope Neil Lennon has some kind of plan B when things are not going right in any given match, as he seems very reluctant to change things when things are not working. Anyway, Hail ! Hail ! and looking forward to resume of play after the winter break.
CBN. Excellent stats and assessment thereof.
I thought we tried to force the killer pass too much, losing possession very quickly. I also think we need to choose better between going long, playing through the midfield and attacking out wide.
Often our best players were swamped (Eddie and Christie in particular) which means there were free player’s elsewhere available for a switch but we either chose not to attempt it or when we did we put it out of the park or it dropped short and was intercepted.
In a nutshell, we didn’t work as hard as them off the ball. It was the same at Hampden.
Our players are under-coached in some games – we rely on an ‘off the cuff’ approach – it works against inferior opposition – Ibrox is not now inferior opposition.
Much was said about our ability to win even when outplayed in the LCF – let’s be honest, we were the luckiest team in the world.
Where are we now better than them in the head to head?
Celtic rating first
GK – 50/50
FB – 40/60
CB – 50/50
MF – 45/55
FWD – 45/55
Celtic 230
Sevco 270
If they lose players through injury and we get Elyanoussi & Elhamed back, the gap will close. On the other hand, if we lose a CB, or Brown, or, Eddy, or, God forbid all three and they remain virtually injury-free, we are sunk.
Quality CB, MF and CF are required this month – I very much doubt it will happen.
Wow 1 defeat,and suddenly they are almost better than us all over the park..the lunatics are truly taking over the asylum
I base my judgement on the last six games against them & current performance levels over the last two.
Was it not obvious to you that they were better in all areas at Hampden & Celtic Park?
Off the ball, our speed, intensity & commitment was way below theirs.
On the ball, we had no answer to their press & packing and never fashioned a clear-cut chance from open play, in either game.
There is no debate for me, they were better than us “all over the park”
We can’t stop them improving as they have done over the last eighteen months, however apparently not to have anticipated, monitored and ensured that we also improved commensurately , is a failure, in my book.
They have ‘gone to school’ on us, we haven’t on them.
Of course we can overtake them again, however where we are in the season with their on the face of it easier run up to the split, means we have little room for error.
I’m not a lunatic living in an asylum – just a concerned, long-standing Celtic supporter being realistic….not defeatist.
I’m still pissed off by the performance and result but your analysis is nonsense. I wouldn’t rate any of their players above their equivalent at Celtic. Also, our goal came from open play
Also, now that I think about it, the Johnston chance in the cup game that should have finished it
Belated happy new year to you Alan. Really good article, with little in the way of surprises.
There are so many big discussion points from the game (some of which extend to the entire month of December). To avoid getting bogged down too much, I’ll focus on two quick ones.
The missed penalty annoyed me immensely as it was all too predictable. It was hit at a really poor height – just like his previous penalty at Dingwall. Just as frustratingly, McGregor has saved 3 pens vs Celtic – all diving to his left whilst moving early. It begs the question as to whether penalty takers undertake the same analysis as GKs do for the same event.
To one of the above comments points about matching up to Rangers in the expectation that the better players prevail, from what I’ve heard that’s exactly how Lennon set out his team in the last 2 games against Rangers. Something is getting lost in the execution. A primary reason, in my opinion, is individual decision making.
Some tense times ahead.
HNY to you and all readers!
On the penalties the problem is penalties are relatively rare (well maybe not at Ibrox) so such analysis is difficult but agree with the sentiment
As always very cogent analysis CelticbyNumbers- much of it demystifying some of the nonsense from those who’ve drunk the daily record kool-aid and now think der hun are the benchmark.
I think some of the conclusions that a number of ‘realist’ Celtic fans have made in relation to them being better “all over the park”is just plain crazy talk. Yes they beat us and have played well against us on recent occasions- but in the final analysis we’ve still defeated them twice this season. Cluj stuffed us as home but no one is realistically saying they have better players than us all over the park. MacGregor is not a better goalkeeper than FF. Julian and Ajer are more valuable commodities than the two hun CB, Tavernier couldn’t lace wee Frimpongs boots/ neither is he a better defender than Elhammed- in midfield Jack, kamara, Arfield and Davis are very ordinary if tidy enough players/is Davis better than Brown? Is Kamara better than Ntcham? Is Jack better than MacGregor or Arfield better than Christie? They don’t even have a player like Rogic. No one can convince me Kent is better than Elyonnoussi or Forrest, nor would I swap him for Johnston. What Celtic fan in their right mind would swap Edouard for Morelos? Edouard has the potential to go onto a stellar career at the highest level, El Buffalo certainly will not.
The problem is the system they are playing. Hearts defeated us at Tynecastle under Rodgers with the high temp press/ Livingston at the Macaroni stadium, also Cluj have done it successfully recently and the Huns continue to do so- Lennon has to solve that particular riddle. Its not really about the players so much as playing into the trap of the other teams system. Gerrard knows how we always play and he’s now got an effective strategy he’s developed to frustrate our normal game.
Big Yogi Hughes was right: Ntcham or big Bitton should have been plating against der hun and Johnston should never have been on the pitch, never mind on the same side as Bolingoli- it was a certain recipe for disaster. We need muscle against der hun and we need to fight fire with fire- its been forever thus- how Lenny has forgotten this I don’t quite understand. He was a warrior on the pitch himself and needs to pick warriors for that particular fixture. Lenny needs to rotate more generously or again threaten to burn out the first eleven ( who have looked lethargic, jaded, and even exhausted in the last month)- we have able footballers in Ntcham, Bitton, Rogic, Taylor, Griffiths and even Shved, who should be putting pressure on Forrest.
I do think the added experience and strength of Elhamed and Elyonnoussi will make a big difference when they come back- this added to the much needed break and hopefully one of two new signings will have us kicking on for the second half of the seasons, when Celtic seem to perform better. And for all the talk of how will Celtic experience the pressure of the challenge of the new huns- how do we know how they will react to the pressure when they’ve never been in that position before?
Celtic needs to get their tactics & team selections spot on for those fixtures &
the Team needs to be firing on all cylinders & up for the match because
December’s showing against Sevco was feeble & poor to say the least
Come on Celtic you are a much better team than that think of your Latzio
Performances should be your bench mark put it this way if you can beat
a Team who is placed third in the Italian Serie A then surerly you should
be able to overcome Sevco its a no Brainer & also we have a much bigger
Squad than them so this should not be a constant problem go-on-the-bhoys