Shooting Stars

Top U21 Scorers

I revisited the comparison of Celtic wide attackers in Give Me More Wings. This analysis was refreshed thanks to Tiago Estêvão? (please follow him on Twitter @TiagoEstv). Tiago has now come up with an analysis of the top 3 Under 21 goal scorers in each of the top 6 European Leagues (plus the Eredivise and English Championship). I reproduce it here:

The obvious question for a Celtic site is: how does 20 year old Moussa Dembele compare? We have a 32 goal striker, apparently coveted by the biggest clubs in the English Premier League, capped and scoring for France U21s. This is his peer group.

Dembele

The same caveats apply regarding this analysis:

1. I have used the same categories as Tiago but the definition may be different and source and means of calculation will be different; and
2. Tiago only includes League games. I include ALL Celtic matches. This therefore includes Champions League matches and Cup semi-finals and finals this increasing the number of “hard” matches. This balances somewhat the fact the Scottish league would not be considered one of Europe’s strongest.

Firstly, Dembele matches the 2^nd highest number of league goals within the analysis at 17 (Abraham, the Chelsea player on loan at Bristol City, has the highest with 23 – more on him later). He has played 1917 minutes and therefore averages a goal every 113 minutes which is a higher number of minutes that his overall rate of a goal every 105 minutes in all competitions. Therefore, on a pure like for like basis (league goals only) he would be 3^rd on the list by this measure behind Mbappe (Monaco) and Schick (Sampdoria).

The Tiago list is sorted by Shots per Goal. On this basis Dembele would be 7^th which is not surprising when you consider he takes considerably more shots per 90m than anyone else on the list (4.54). The next highest is 3.6. Dembele is taking nearly 1 shot per match more than his peers, or 26% more. If you don’t shoot…..

Shot quality can only be inferred as we don’t have xG (Expected Goals) for those players. Dembele takes 24% of shots from outside the box. Those shots will inevitably have a lower chance of success. This puts Dembele in the middle of the pack in 13^th. With some exceptions (Schick!) the players at the top of the table take a high proportion of their shots inside the box and this is perhaps a development opportunity for Dembele. He is 10^th on shot accuracy of 43%.

Dembele is bottom of the list on number of times dispossessed or losing the ball through a bad touch. At 6.87 per 90m this is 0.87 more than Dolberg who loses it 6 times on this basis. I am not sure how many of the players listed play as a lone striker as Dembele does and this may have an impact. Note that I do not differentiate between “tackles” with feet and “ariel duels” i.e. headed challenges. I just record challenges with whatever part of the body is used. Therefore, I suspect Dembele is being penalised by this metrics as I suspect ariel duels are being recorded separately.

An area not addressed in the analysis is the creative aspect. In this regard, I suspect Dembele would score highly as he has 13 assists at 0.35 per 90 and creates 0.43 scoring chances per 90m. Dembele completes over 76% of passes which I would speculate is also at the higher end of the out and out strikers.

Overall, the notion that we have one of the top young strikers in Europe playing for Celtic is borne out by comparing him to his peers in more monied leagues. From a coaching perspective, Dembele can improve on:

1. Shot selection and aiming for a higher proportion to be taken in the box; and
2. Decision making around hold up play and when to play it off with the aim of reducing the number of times dispossessed (remembering the caveat that Dembele may be suffering here by the way I record the data).

Dembele 2016/17 All Competitions vs Abraham 2016/17 English Championship

Tiago Estêvão? wondered how Dembele would compare with Tammy Abraham. Abraham plays for Bristol City on loan from Chelsea. Dembele was the top scoring teenager in the English Championship last season for Fulham and Abraham has surpassed Dembele’s 15 goal mark. With Dembele allegedly attracting interest from top English Premier League teams, and Abraham already registered at Chelsea, it makes for a valid comparison.

At 19 Abraham is having a stellar season in the Championship with 23 goals, 3 behind Chris Wood of Leeds United. On a “minutes per goal” basis, Abraham is 4^th for those with 11 goals or more.

I will confess to never having seen Abraham play so am not familiar with the style of player he is. Also, a couple of observations on the above:

• I am sceptical that what I have labelled “Chances Created90” is the same as Tiago’s “Key Passes P90”. Given Dembele has the much higher number of assists I would be tempted to discount this comparison.
• I do not have a view on whether scoring more or less penalties is better or worse!
• Similarly, scoring a higher or lower % of your team’s overall goals can be a factor of many things beyond the ability of the player so although reported I have not made a judgement on which is better.

It would seem Abraham is more of a penalty box striker. He attempts 93% of his shots from inside the box, which may be something for Dembele to aspire to. Despite this he is only 5% more accurate with his shots. As noted above Dembele attempts an awful lot of shots and although this is “good” he can perhaps calibrate his shot selection slightly to ensure optimal shot quality.

Dembele has significantly less minutes between each goal (105 to 145) and takes more shots per goal as noted. Also, he has the better scoring rate managing 0.85 goals per 90m compared to 0.62 for Abraham. He is also the more frequent dribbler although Abraham manages to draw more fouls. I will avoid the obvious comment about Scottish referees!

I sourced Abraham’s assist and passing data from other sites, and it is clear Dembele is perhaps a more all-round attacker. Dembele’s passing is more accurate and he massively out-assists Abraham. It is only reasonable to say I am generous with assists in that I award as assist for players taken down for penalties and direct free kicks from which a goal is scored. Even if the scorer is the player fouled. This will have inflated Dembele’s stats to some degree.

For a teenage to score over 20 goals in a league as rugged and competitive as the English Championship is clearly a notable achievement. Abraham appears to be a player with a natural goal threat through good shot selection. Dembele, a year ahead in his development and now experienced in Champions League football, looks the more rounded forward.

Dembele 2015/16 vs Abraham 2016/17

So here is a wee treat! With a big thanks to Jack Collins (@jackjcollins on Twitter), Fulham blogger, I have comparative data from Dembele LAST season in the English Championship. I can therefore compare 19-year-old Dembele and 19-year-old Abraham. The metrics I have for Dembele last season are not a straight match for those available above. But, here ye go:

If you don’t mind me saying, this is a rather lovely table!

Essentially, when we consider goals, Abraham comes out on top across the board. In fact, Dembele attempted even more shots per game that this season. Abraham manages his goals at a far more efficient rate. I don’t have comparative data for number of shots in and out the box for Dembele last year.

Outside of scoring, this illustrates even more starkly that Dembele, at 19, was a more rounded forward with more dribble success, more assists and creating more chances. They had the same passing success at this age.

For those that say Dembele now plays in Scotland and the goals are easier to come by – remember he has scored 5 goals in Champions League matches, and another 2 in Cup semi-finals and finals.

Dembele has improved across several key metrics over last season, notably his passing accuracy. His scoring rate has increased hugely as well, but bear in mind I have included 8 penalties from this season.

Supporters of Bristol City and Chelseas will, I hope, find this useful in time to track Abraham’s progress.

Hopefully all the above indicates why Dembele continues to be linked to some of the top clubs in Europe.