As we build up to the Scottish Cup Final, one area of the side that may not be decided by injury is the attacking left sided role. Will Lennon go with Sinclair or Hayes?
When Lennon arrived, Sinclair was selected in his usual inside left forward position. In the last six matches however, Hayes has started three and Sinclair only one.
Which player deserves the place in the big one?
Creativity
As wide players creating chances for others is key.
Hayes has a clear advantage as you might except from someone who had 24 assists in his final season at Aberdeen.
His actual assist rate is 0.27 compared to 0.21 for Sinclair – close. But Hayes wears you down with attrition. Attempting over 7 crosses per game (Sinclair tries less than 1), he produces 1.64 key passes per 90m compared to 1.05.
Hayes overall Expected Assist rate is 0.296, much higher than Sinclair’s 0.175. Given he manages nearly 1 pass into the Danger Zone more than Sinclair, not a surprise.
Both are very similar in Secondary Assists (the pass before the assisting pass).
Goal Threat
Not unexpectedly, Sinclair is far more productive in terms of overall goal threat.
Hayes hasn’t scored in 985 minutes this season. Sinclair is once again in double figures with 13 goals and 4 penalties.
Sinclair’s Expected Goals of 0.52 indicates over a goal every other game whilst Hayes’ 0.08 pales.
Sinclair takes more shots (2.65 to 0.91) and from better positions (2.08 inside the box to 0.46).
The Englishman gets into better scoring positions. He gets 0.55 Big Chances per 90m whilst Hayes has not had any. Sinclair manages possession in the opposition box 5.1 time per 90m compared to 1.64 for Hayes.
Overall Attacking Threat
Taking goals and assists together, Sinclair can be expected to get 0.69 per 90m compared to 0.38 by Hayes.
My composite attacking threat index (CAT Score) also has Sinclair a clear leader with 7.96 to 3.75.
Defensive
Lennon seems to like Hayes all-action manner and very visible work rate. This translates into a more combative player and he wins 5.76 challenges per 90m compared to 2 by Sinclair. Overall, Hayes net wins possession back 0.18 times per 90m whilst Sinclair will net lose possession 2.47 times.
Hayes concedes 1.37 fouls per 90m compared to 0.71 by Sinclair.
Hayes has played in more defensive positions which will influence these numbers.
Conclusion
Lennon loves Hayes, a player very much in his own mould in terms of endeavour and spikiness. But this Celtic side lacks support to the one fit striker, Edouard. Sinclair provides that support and considerably bolsters the teams’ attacking threat.
Put simply, if you played Hayes over Sinclair for 10 games you could expect to generate 1 extra assist. If you played Sinclair over Hayes for 10 games you could expect 4 extra goals.
This Celtic side needs goals which is why I’d select Sinclair in the left attacking position.
I also prefer Sinclair as attacking winger but surely Tierney is a factor in this too though?
At the start of the season, when Tierney was firing on all cylinders, Sinclair was contributing. He was given the support behind him to allow him to concentrate on movement into the box. Without Tierney, either being as effective in that supporting role or being available at all, Hayes has been able to fill in with an awareness/readiness/willingness to take care of defensive duties. Sinclair doesn’t defend. Is Sinclair not perhaps a luxury we can only afford if we have someone of Tierney’s abilities at left back? It would be interesting to see if the stats bore this theory out or not.
Best analysis available for Celtic fans.
They’ll probably both play is the easy way answer.
Neil Lennon halted Scott Sinclair’s flatering season , but for me the goal threat is the key in a
one off occasion.
Regardless of who Neil starts Celtic’s left side is decimated with Keiran Tierney.
** with Keiran injured **
I am writing this after the last game of the season, the question is moot. The answer wee Mikey Johnston!