Yesterday I outlined a framework to assess the impact of Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
This piece will consider contentious decisions from the early rounds of SPFL Premier matches in July and August.
I am indebted to the Yorkshire Whistler for providing expert judgement of these key, potentially game changing moments and providing an unbiased assessment of the correct decision.
I do not always agree with his conclusions mainly because a) I am biased; b) I do not know the Laws of the Game intimately as he does; and c) I do not have experience of refereeing football matches. You may also relate to those constraints. Be honest!
As described in the framework, where an in-game decision is deemed incorrect, there is an Expected Points impact for the “wronged” team and this is indicated.
I’ll keep a running tally.
So, without further ado.
31/07/21 Hearts v Celtic
Incident 1
| Date | 31/07/21 | Referee | Bobby Madden |
| Game | Hearts vs Celtic | Game Minute | 56th |
| Incident | Halliday challenge on McGregor |
| Outcome | Foul to Celtic, no card |
| Evidence | https://twitter.com/i/status/1421577576997339146 |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Late challenge by Halliday. For me this should have a been a caution for foul tackle in a reckless manner. Studs catch Celtic player late and nothing of the ball. Having watched the attempted challenge in real time, don’t feel the foul warranted a sending off. The challenge is low, eyes on ball and I don’t see this as therefore being a tackle that endangers players safety.
Verdict – Incorrect decision, caution should have been given. |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
No impacts |
Incident 2
| Date | 31/07/21 | Referee | Bobby Madden |
| Game | Hearts vs Celtic | Game Minute | 60th |
| Incident | Celtic score through Abada |
| Outcome | Goal disallowed for offside |
| Evidence | SPFL: The Season So VAR – The Celtic Exchange |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Another very tight call that appears to go against the Celtic player. As the ball is passed, the only part of the players body further forward than the Hearts defender is his left forearm. For clarity, IFAB at start of this season amended the Law 11: Offside notes to state – the hands and arms of all players, including the goalkeepers, are not considered. For the purposes of determining offside, the upper boundary of the arm is in line with the bottom of the armpit.
Using this latest guidance, Abada’s bottom armpit is not ahead of the Hearts defender at the time of the pass. Verdict: Incredibly tight call to the human eye, but incorrect decision. The goal should have stood. |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
Celtic -0.9 xPts |
08/08/21 Celtic v Dundee
| Date | 08/08/21 | Referee | Euan Anderson |
| Game | Celtic vs Dundee | Game Minute | 38th |
| Incident | Marshall challenge on Ralston |
| Outcome | Foul to Celtic and Yellow Card Marshall |
| Evidence | https://twitter.com/i/status/1424380705728090115 |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Watched this clip several times and same verdict reached each time, red card/sending off offence was expected outcome. The Dundee player arrives late and lunges in to the challenge. Both legs are off the floor for a moment, he is not in control of the tackle and this is therefore a tackle with excessive force that endangers the players safety.
Verdict – Incorrect Decision. This was a red card/sending off offence. |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
Celtic -0.35 xPts |
21/08/21 Celtic v St Mirren
Incident 1
| Date | 21/08/21 | Referee | Willie Collum |
| Game | Celtic v St Mirren | Game Minute | 19th |
| Incident | Power challenge on Turnbull |
| Outcome | Foul to Celtic and Red Card for Power |
| Evidence | https://twitter.com/i/status/1429468279727349768 |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | The challenge is high, off ground and studs catch Celtic player on top of foot. Player not in control of the tackle whilst off ground. Therefore, endangers player safety.
Verdict – Correct Decision. Red card/sending off offence justified. |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 2
| Date | 21/08/21 | Referee | Willie Collum |
| Game | Celtic v St Mirren | Game Minute | 27th |
| Incident | Christie challenge |
| Outcome | Foul awarded to St Mirren, no card for Christie |
| Evidence | https://twitter.com/i/status/1429468279727349768 |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Timing of this challenge is just off. Although studs are showing, the challenge is low and aimed directly at the ball and almost gets the ball. For me this would be a reckless challenge.
Verdict – Incorrect decision. Caution/yellow card should have been issued for the challenge. |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 3
| Date | 21/08/21 | Referee | Willie Collum |
| Game | Celtic v St Mirren | Game Minute | 28th |
| Incident | St Mirren score |
| Outcome | Goal disallowed for offside |
| Evidence | https://twitter.com/i/status/1429468279727349768 |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | From the one camera angle shown, it certainly appears the Celtic player in the RB position is just playing the striker onside at the time he makes contact with the ball. Given the expected position of the assistant referee (off camera) and the fact that the RB is advancing back up the pitch as the striker is moving towards the goal, I can see why he got the timing of the contact wrong and flagged, but the goal should have stood.
Verdict – Incorrect decision. Onside and goal should have stood. |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
Celtic +0.2 xPts |
22/08/21 Ross County vs The Rangers
| Date | 22/08/21 | Referee | David Munro |
| Game | Ross Co v TRFC | Game Minute | 9th |
| Incident | Ross County claim for Balogun handball in box |
| Outcome | Free kick awarded to TRFC for a push by Ross Co player |
| Evidence | SPFL: The Season So VAR – The Celtic Exchange |
| Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | First two clips are inconclusive but from the final replay, I cannot see where there is a push on the defender. Slightest of contact yes, but nothing enough to suggest a foul or an impact on the defenders jump. He seems to simply have mis timed his initial jump and swung an arm above his head as part of the jumping motion.
Verdict – Incorrect decision. No foul and the handball offence should have been punished with a penalty decision. |
| Expected Points
Outcome |
The Rangers +0.54 xPts
Explainer – at 0-0 in 9th minute, a goal to the home team, Ross County, is worth 0.7 xPts. However, the probability of scoring a penalty is approximately 77%. Hence 0.54 xPts gain to TRFC (0.7 * 77%). |
Summary
With thanks to the Yorkshire Whistler, that concludes the Honest Mistakes in July and August.
Not a great start from the men in black as of 7 contentious decisions, only 1 had the correct outcome – Power’s Red Card foul on Turnbull.
However, in only 4 of the 7 incidents was there an impact on the Expected Points.
Here is the running total so far:
Up to the end of July, those 4 incidents had reduced Celtic’s xPts by 1.05 whilst the missed penalty award for Ross County meant The Rangers were 0.54 xPts up.
Therefore, Celtic can have expected to be 1.59 points nearer The Rangers, so far, based on those xPts outcomes.
Tomorrow we cover September until the present.
A proper Media would be keen to highlight these figures.That rules out the media in Scotland.
Very fair summing up . But even if they introduce var in the spl the same peepul making the judgements are of the same ilk of the ones making the honest mistakes/selective blindness I call it . I’m not holding my breath for anything being done to make it a level playing field. Maybe that’s why I live in England where honest mistakes would never be tolerated
yes,refs are a joke,that’s why celtic won the cup when julien goal was well offside.bring var in now!
The SFA should be taken to task on the performance of their referees. On numerous occasions the official has made the wrong decisions costing teams fair results and awarding points to the wrong team and then own up to getting the decisions wrong. Game over NO action required.
Be interested to know what the Yorkshire Whistler’s take on a referee going for a few pints in a Rangers Pub with celebratory fans straight after a Derby Game in which he was the referee?
That goal was never offside theirs 2 sevco players in front of julien open ur eyes.
Weirdly no investigation of CCV’s clear foul as the last man within the penalty box…odd
In which game?
Was that the clear foul ( which it was) that followed the clear barge ( which it was ) on Starfelt outside the box ?
Wilkins Screamer, is that the wee dodgy tax paying cheat, who has a face & head
shape, like a monkeys arse? Bring in VAR, yeah so that more Buster Keeton can
go on, like the German Teams penalty against us recently, which clearly came off
Carter Vickers back, said VAR in Scotland, will still produce the same outcome,
yeah more Buster Keeton decisions. Bring in non bias Referees, not ones who
are straight out of the Local Lodge & their Elegance is with the Club, from the
other side of the City, which is a “Fact”