The signing of Duffy will become a case study for years to come on how not to assess, sign and then deploy a player with out reference to the structures and systems he will interact with.
Starfelt’s Start
Swedish centre back was flung on against Heat of Midlothian, made an error leading to a goal within 8 minutes, yet was overall solid in his first three matches as i described in Starfelt’s Start (please read it, a classic of the genre). I wrote this in response to what I felt was overbearing criticism in his first matches.
However, I am evidence based and change my opinion when the evidence changes. Since those initial matches, Starfelt’s performances have been stumbling. His Defensive Action Success Rate of 64% would be the worst I have recorded for any centre half since starting this site. So bad are they, that Postecoglou has begun to protect his new signing.
Firstly, he was moved from left to right centre back versus AZ Alkmaar primarily to avoid him having to counter Aboukhlal, their most effective attacker in the first leg. Then he was moved back to left centre back at Ibrox to avoid being exposed to Kent.
Secondly, he greatly simplified his passing game, with very short passes and no attempts at anything expansive.
This is all sound management from Postecoglou. If rather worrying about how long it will take for him to settle in.
The Duffy Reaction
It is indisputable that Duffy was an unsuccessful signing for Celtic.
However, as with all player assessments, context is key.
Not only was the player wrestling with off the field personal issues, he was pitched into a dysfunctional alignment on the park.
Very successful in both Brighton and Hove Albion and Ireland national team set ups that allowed him to be part of a back four with a deep line and a narrow midfield for cover.
At Celtic he had a badly age-declined midfielder (Brown) sitting in front and two full backs (Frimpong and Laxalt) with latitude to both bomb on, often at the same time. He then had to contend with a changing array of partners as the usual injuries told.
As the team performances dipped, so individuals react differently. Duffy is the very epitome of the “whole hearted” player. No one can fault his work rate and commitment, or his physical exertion and bravery.
If anything, he was guilty of trying too hard. Many of his errors resulted from trying to get ahead of danger thus over committing, or of anticipating having to cover others (assessing Frimpong would lose a header and therefore abandoning his own responsibilities).
His reaction to stress was to “do more” rather than play smart.
It is this trap Starfelt must avoid.
Starfelt vs The Rangers
Most post-match reaction I saw was complimentary about the Swedes performance.
He was successful with 12 challenges/intercepts but unsuccessful with 7. He led the side with 17 recoveries and in Pack Passes with 26. As detailed above, these were generally “safe” passes playing through the fairly leisurely initial press of Morelos, Roofe and Kent.
I’d classify his overall performance numbers as “ok”.
What concerned me was his technical defending when challenging for high balls.
First Half Woes
Second Half Woes
Firstly, I realise this would work better as video analysis. I lack the facilities, time or skill in all probability, to deliver this. The minute of the game is indicated in each still and therefore easily traced on playback.
The trend here is of over committing to aerial challenges then either fouling, getting too tight and being spun/missing the ball, or losing the challenge.
In short, he is trying the same “active” defending Duffy was (in)famous for. Rather than standing off, keeping the striker faced away and under physical pressure and forcing them to create from there.
Ultimately his 8th and final wrongly approached challenge led to the corner and the one goal.
Thems the margins.
Summary
Postecoglou is actively managing Starfelt to simplify his game and ease his passage into a regular spot. He needs to help the Swede cut back on over ambitious aerial challenges, and to not force the play and give up fouls in dangerous areas or miss challenges and interceptions all together.
These are technical adjustments for a player clearly under stress.
Given the injury and squad depth issues, we need a safe, steady Starfelt soonest.
This sounds like the kind of development required by a very young player eg a Murray, not even a Welsh.
It’s worrying that we’re talking about a 26yo with almost 200 senior games.
Aye
Insightful and accurate. Some of us fans tended to believe our eyes at the games but, as your previous post proved, we were inaccurate in our assessment. Mud sticks and all that but interesting to now see statistical evidence of a deterioration in his performances. Some, many are continually willing him to do well but we need better than well, we need very good. Moreover, Welsh ( u21 captain) being moved has shown, short term, that he is learning and, the odd ( sometimes calamitous ) error permitting, deserves to be chosen weekly.
Great analysis – it all makes sense. It’s encouraging that you are able to “see” how Ange is improving Starfelt’s performances. Long may it continue!
Excellent as always. Like most people I thought he had his best game but maybe your analysis proves me wrong. In mitigation Morelos must be horrendous to play against.Constantly jumping into players, fouling without getting booked and though strong as an ox as you pointed out a serial diver who wins fouls.Always a constant threat he was everything that Eddy wasn’t.Hope he goes in January.