As the international break comes to close, get back in the mood for real football with a reminder of where we are performance wise across some key metrics.Today: creativity.
Assists
The table below shows Assists per 90 minutes alongside Expected Assists per 90 minutes, and the difference between the two.
Comparing players based on per 90-minute averages removes the variances caused by number of minutes played and effectively puts players on a level playing field.
The two strikers lead the way, with the first creative midfielder in 4th spot – Rogic. Dembele has only played the equivalent of 6.88 full matches so it is a small sample.
xA tells us the number of assists that would have been achieved had the shooter finished in line with the Expected Goals model. A positive Difference indicates over performance and a negative under performance to the expected. This can be down to the luck of whether you pass is converted or not, or it could say something about the quality of the chance created (angle and pace of pass for example). Over a large sample of data, you would expect to see the Difference narrow to near 0.
Both Dembele and Griffiths are out performing their xA whilst Rogic is performing much as expected. He has 5 assists in total.
Under performers, or those unlucky enough to not have their chances converted, are Hayes most prominently, followed by Lustig, Armstrong and Tierney. Tierney has provided the most key passes (44) for 4 assists.
Chances Created
Quite simply a chance is a pass that results in a shot at goal.
We haven’t seen the best of Hayes but neither has he been fortunate. 18 chances have yielded 1 assist. Rogic again figures highly and he is quietly having a good season. It is noticeable there are not overall runaway leaders in these stats reflecting the fact the squad is deep. Won’t it be fun when Roberts finds his form?
Pass Packing
Finally, these are the players than break down the opposition. A “pack” pass is one that bypasses at least one opponent. Your “Impect” score is awarded for bypassing defenders (3 points), midfielders (2 points) and forwards (1 point). The more successful passes you complete taking out opponents, in theory the nearer you are taking the team to a scoring position. So, this rewards riskier passing and there are no points for a safe 5-yard sideways pass.
The packing metrics favour the deeper lying players who are playing passes through midfield rather than the more attacking players who have less opponents in front of them to pack. The strikers will be the lowest because 1. They play the least number of passes, 2. They often play passes backwards and only forward passes count and 3. Most of the opposition are behind them so they don’t have the opportunity to pack e.g. midfielders.
Armstrong keeps his Pack King title for now but Ntcham is not far behind. Allied to his chance creation stats, it is difficult to reconcile how poorly we all thought he was playing early in the season. This metrics also shows the value of Brown’s passing. Although he is virtually redundant as a “final” attacking threat (i.e. providing goals and assists) he provides many meaningful passes that get the team forward.
The value of Bitton deep and able to pick passes under little pressure is shown by his third place. And finally, Rogic outperforms all the other attacking midfielders by far. Considering the position he plays, high up the pitch, he manages to take out a lot of players.