Attention has focussed on the defence as Celtic’s third season under Rodgers splutters along. Poor squad management, injuries, suspensions and therefore a lack of settled partnerships have all contributed. But is the defence getting the protection it needs?
With the 20-year-old Kouassi a peripheral figure within the squad, and Bitton out injured since February, the only natural number 6 is Brown.
The defensive midfield role is crucial for a team like Celtic who push the full backs high and even expect the centre backs to stride forward with the ball. The other midfielders are generally attacking by nature. Hence the burden of defensive cover falls to Brown.
Under Rodgers his performances have been excellent and he would have been my Bhoy of the Season in 17/18. Bar 2 games injured, 1 suspended and 2 rested, he played in 56 games as a second treble was secured.
The captain is now 33 years old and played between 48 and 56 matches in each of the last 6 seasons except an injury hit 15/16 season.
This season he is the only player to have played every minute of every game.
Excluding the as yet uncollected FK Suduva data, what does the 18/19 performance data tell us about Brown’s influence on the team given the crucial role he plays?
Defensive Action
The aggregated metric for assessing defensive actions is DASR. As an indicator of defensive performance, it has proven effective in ranking centre backs. It can be applied to all positions.
Brown has been the only midfielder in the squad with a value over 50%.
The DASR is an aggregated view across a number of defensive actions. I’ve shown before that the gap between Van Dijk (81%) and Ambrose (70%) is small. An 8% decrease is therefore significant.
And across the board the numbers are down:
Additionally, the number of tackles lost is up from 1.57 per 90m to 1.78 per 90m.
Last season Brown was winning 8.44 challenges per 90m and now it is 5.89, a decrease of 30%.
Last season he was winning possession back 5.97 times per 90m but now it is 4.22, a decrease of 29%.
He is even committing less fouls – 1.33 per 90m compared to 1.71. The number of tackles he is missing is rising from 0.29 per 90m to 0.56.
Setting the Tempo
So, maybe his ability to get stuck in and mix it is diminishing but surely he is still the metronome by which Celtic dictate the tempo of play?
Unfortunately, that’s a no.
He is passing the ball less (completed passes down 8%), and crucially less of his passes are breaking the opponent’s defensive lines (down 28%). The impact of his forward passing as scored using Impect is way down (by 18%). Indeed pass completion is actually up by 1% from 95% to 96% – less risks being taken perhaps.
In addition, he is creating less chances albeit this was never his primary function.
We have to consider the context of the first 9 games of 18/19. These were predominantly the Champions League qualifiers, arguably the most important games of Celtic’s season. Brown has been skilled at managing his own performance to ensure maximum output in these big games historically.
Last season he averaged 105 completed passes in these qualifiers and 8.33 challenges won per 90m. In the deciding tie against Astana he won 22 challenges over the two legs. He won back possession 6.33 times per 90m in the 9 qualifiers.
In the big games Brown has usually delivered. Are those days now gone?
Conclusion
Putting aside the data, Brown continues to provide much that is noble and unmeasurable – leadership, drive, passion. Let’s never underestimate the importance of those attributes that data cannot know.
But this is a site fuelled by data. And in the realm of the measurable there has been a sudden and dramatic fall off in performance.
Several key metrics show a near 30% reduction from 2017/18.
The fall out from not securing McGinn from Hibernian has provided a lightning rod for disenchantment concerning poor squad management. Given Brown’s subsequent performances, this receives sharper focus and shows that the need to get in a central midfielder capable of rivalling Brown for defensive output should be a key goal for recruitment.
Whilst attention is majored on defensive deficiencies, there appears to be another critical area of the field needing immediate attention.
The captain needs help.
I think your final line, ‘the captain needs help’ could be one of the most important in the whole piece.
It is difficult to argue with statistics but if I was to play devil’s advocate then surely it is only fair on the captain to suggest that the performance of those around him is a contributing factor (not the only one) to the decrease in his numbers?
I am of course a novice when it comes to statistical analysis like this so please stop me if I am misreading any situation.
Could the number of intercepts, for example, have dropped sharply as a result of his teammates losing possession in deeper areas of the park? Would possession being surrendered behind Brown or even around him make it more difficult for him to intercept opposition attacks than if possession was being lost higher up the park? Maybe?
I am of course assuming there is a tendency for teammates to be losing possession in and around deeper positions than last year. If opposition attacks began in their own defence then Brown would be better placed to read play, position himself and control the game from a defensive standpoint. Is that fair?
As I said, only playing devil’s advocate and Brown may well be suffering from a dip in form or the effects of being another year older. However, if his teammates are leaving him hung out to dry and possession being lost in more vulnerable areas could this be a significant factor in showing decreased KPI’s such as intercepts, challenges won, aerial challenges won, clearances and the number of effective passes forward?
As always, appreciate your work and the amount of effort it must take.
Those are all fair questions and your overall point about whether this is a general team shape and confidence malaise is an interesting question. I would say if all positions the defensive midfielder would suffer if those around him are not organised effectively.
Scott Brown is one of the best players
I agree. But he needs help.
Broony is the best midfielder in the spl and id out him up there with the top 5 in Europe .he’ll ride to the challenge no doubt in my mind.
jeezussss H wept… and how many games into this season are we ?? you’ve compared a whole season against “how many ” games ??????????????????????????????????? sighhhhhhh !!!
John
That’s a fair challenge. I’d make 3 points
1. I’ve found over 5 seasons now in my experience that around 10 games is a good enough sample to form opinions
2. These were arguably the most important games of Celtic’s season and we are used t seeing Brown rise in those games.
3. This isn’t small margin regressions we can quibble over but huge reductions in performance across many key defensive midfield competencies
Brown will be a great captain for Celtic this season.
I hope you are right but based on the available evidence have concerns.
I love talking Celtic feet firmly on ground truth to power etc but increasingly concerned about tone of this site am I the only one suspicious of its intent?
Jon I’ve always said no sacred cows on this site. The last 2 seasons have been great but for those paying attention the last season saw various dropping off of performance. I collect the data and report it. The Brown data is startling frankly.
Have you factored in number times brown has been clattered on and off the ball obviously hurt but plays on Hearts game as example?
I wrote extensively on Twitter last year about how Brown was massively fouled compared to the fouls he commits so I am well aware of this issue.
How does him being fouled explain the massive drop off of the other key data?
Same old he is now targetted more than before no protection more than before complicity of referees in this
More of a concern than raw data comparison
This continues to be the story rather than chipping asY at confidence in the club
I can get this on a sevco site
So ill just report the stats that reflect positively on Celtic or individual players?
That’s not my mission statement which is to have no scared cows and do seek to be as balanced as a I can given how much I love the Hoops.
Sorry if this disappoints you.
You do disappoint and your love does not come through
Analyse when you have sufficient data I see this as an outright attack on Scott brown unfair unwarranted and unnecessary
How would Gordon of Tierney for that matter shape up under you scrutiny this early?
Conflating issues does not deflect from the huge regression in Browns performance in the biggest games of the season.
My judgement based on my experience of this data is that around 10 games is fair sample.
Is Brown playing slightly out of position?
I noticed in the last two games he was forward of Ntcham on several occasions which seemed to leave a hole in front of the centre backs. i.e. he wasn’t playing a natural 6 role.
Possibly on occasion within the natural ebb and flow of a game but Brown is still the one that drops back into defence when needed
It would be interesting to compare some heat maps of last season with the games you have analysed this season.
BTW. I enjoy reading your articles immensely.
Empirical evidence is far more important than uneducated opinion.
I’m sure that the Celtic data analysts will be visiting your site and stealing some of the conclusions!
Keep up the great work.
I am rarely compelled to post anything on internet blogs, but FFS the absolute losers coming on here to complain that the author has the temerity to (clinically, objectively) criticize Broony need to get a grip of themselves. It’s fitba, yer allowed to criticize folk on yer team. You don’t like it, away ye go. Or even better, you don’t think it’s correct, feel free to do the analysis yourselves. Weirdos.
Well Anon some might have the view that click bait mumbo jumbo targetted at our captain might be a little more sinister than first appears but any hop..
And your response to “click bait mumbo jumbo” is…to click? Like I said, nobody is forcing you to read the guy’s output.
In any case, the article is extremely objective, the author concludes that Brown provides much that is immeasurable and concludes “the captain needs help”. He also responds cautiously to several comments. The real issue here is the absurd sensitivity of the average scottish fitba fan.
As an Analyst myself not in football but in finance I am fascinated by this data. Like lots of data we can pick and chose what to measure we can weight it we can increase and decrease our sample to make an evidence based point, many football fans are incapable of breaking down proper analysis because it often doesn’t conform to their pre-conceptions.
Anecdotally Scott Brown has been poorer this season but so have many others.
We need signings, Brendan knows this.
Hello, very interesting.
I watched St Mirren game on TV. Very mediocre performance. I felt the pivotal weakness (other than Ntcham’s foolishness) was that Brown sat deep so meaning St Mirren players did not need to commit in way that threatened shape or space behind/wide. It also meant that he was in the way of defenders such that their passes in middle of park were entirely redundant in ability to create openings. When they passed wide (particularly Boyata to other CBs) St Mirren were in shape to press and Brown wasn’t in a position to provide an outlet. There was no outlet for them forward.
The above means that front 4 and wingbacks found it hard to find space as St Mirren had not been forced into overcommitting anywhere further up the park.
Perhaps the press talk of a coaching role for Brown reflects an internal concern over playing. Playing PSG then Brown sitting, nullifying and using ball well is good but in Scotland he needs to bring more pressure to bear. I’m uncertain how good Mulumbu is but he a physicality and quick good feet something like Tottenham’s Dembele that commits players. Bit tangental, but I wonder if Ryan Christie’s future is as a holding midfielder. I suspect we could not of held onto Armstrong if we wanted to but he is badly missed IMO. Missing out on McGinn was foolish. He’s not as good as Brown at his best for sure but Brown was often iffy 10 years ago too.
Best wishes
HH
Brown dropping into the back has been a feature for a while. It is realistic as he does not offer an attacking through ball option, Also it is insurance against the nominal full back bombing on.
Interesting point about Christie. Not sure he has the tactical discipline but he is strong and quick and would be a bit like Dembele of Tottenham in that role.