It is now over 10 years since Strachan’s final season saw an aging, unbalanced Celtic squad limp to 2nd place in the SPL bringing down the curtain on 3 titles in a row. The parallels cannot be ignored.
Warning Signs
In 2008/09 manager Strachan had, on a wave of post Tommy Burns emotion, abandoned his principles to the extent that his oft quoted maxim of a manager not extending himself beyond 3 years now progressed into a 4th year.
The drama of clawing back a deficit to win the league at Tannadice the previous season meant Celtic entered the 08/09 campaign united with grief following the untimely passing of coach Burns, and steeled by the confidence of that comeback title.
Samaras signed on full time after a loan, Loovens arrived from Cardiff City and Maloney returned. Intrigue was provided by Crosas from Barcelona and the maverick McCourt was sourced from Derry City.
An early season 2-4 defeat at home to Rangers (Miller nearly scored a hat-trick for goodness sake!) and an ineffective Champions League Group campaign (Aalborg, Villareal, Manchester United) was partially covered by decent league form including 12 wins in a row in late Autumn.
A 27th December 1-0 win at Ibrox (McDonald) perhaps persuaded everyone at the club the 4th title was on the way – the Hoops lead the league by 7 points.
The Willo Flood Window
As Celtic entered the Winter transfer window, there were clear structural issues affecting the squad. In general, the squad was aging. Hartley, Nakamura and Vennegoor of Heesselink would all leave for nothing at seasons end very much in the twilight of their careers.
The central midfield was a problem (sound familiar?). The youthful Brown was struggling to get regular support (sound familiar?) as aging Hartley and Robson competed with the elegant but slight Crosas. Left back was an issue (sound familiar?) as Naylor and O’Dea, a centre half, swapped about in the second half of the season.
Up front the declining Vennegoor of Hesselink would finish the season with 8 goals, Samaras was as often on the bench as playing and so the scoring burden fell to McDonald (sound familiar?). Otherwise, despite wanting to play 2 up top, there was a lack of cover especially as Maloney had one of his many long absences due to injury. Killen and Hutchison were clearly not up to standard.
At centre half, McManus was beginning to creak, and Loovens and O’Dea on occasion were called upon in what had previously been a regular pairing of Caldwell and McManus (sound familiar?).
Despite all these structural issues, the only notable addition to the squad in January was one WIllo Flood, a £1.3m acquisition from Cardiff City. Flood would go onto start (but not complete) 2 matches that season. The long-winded saga of trying to sign Steven Fletcher to bolster the attack ended in disappointment.
Strachan
As well as the 7-point lead, Strachan had made it know to the club he would be leaving at the end of the season during the Winter months. The club perhaps felt they would not spend money on a departing manager. I can’t think of a single occasion the early warning of a manager leaving ends well.
Self-Harming Opponents
The 08/09 season saw the original Rangers exit Europe early, and signs of the impending financial melt down that would end in liquidation were becoming apparent. The March of 2009 saw voluntary redundancy being offered to staff. No players were added in the Winter and the club attempted to force top scorer out the club to Birmingham City to ease the financial burden but Boyd’s wage demanded scuppered that.
Despite all this, the Ibrox outfit had splaffed over E17m on players in the Summer of 2008 on the likes of Mendes, Davis, Lafferty, Bougherra, Edu and Miller rather than make provision for known extensive tax responsibilities. In the end the Bank would be put in place to run the club as the custodians of the day were incapable or unwilling to place the financial safety of the club over the reckless pursuit of trophies (sound familiar?).
Celtic, perhaps knowing of the impending financial storm to come, chose to stick rather than twist as regards squad strengthening (sound familiar?).
The Hoops wouldn’t see the title again for 3 seasons.
A Soro-ful Window
Lennon clearly stated McGregor, Brown and Forrest needed seasoned help and that 2-3 starters were required from this latest Window. Instead some excess was trimmed from the squad but supplemented only by two youngsters (Kilmala and Soro) that will take time to bed in and acclimatise.
A 3-5-2 shape seems to bring out the best in the side yet there are only 2 fit centre backs. Elhamed seems to have long term problems, Bitton should not be considered a centre back, and Simunovic cannot be relied upon to stay fit for long periods. With Frimpong now injured after a severe tackle against Kilmarnock, Bolingoli losing the trust of the manager, the whole back line looks thin.
On the wings, Johnston has now picked up a knee injury and Elyounoussi is still out. Hayes, the Robson / Hartley willing journeyman of his day, fills in. On the right, Arzani is untested and Shved another who seems untrusted therefore Forrest carries the burden.
In midfield Brown and McGregor will again be expected to rack up minute after minute.
Celtic do have 4 strikers to rotate but Griffiths remains fragile, Bayo is an enigma and Klimala needs patience.
Across the 28 Celtic first team squad members (some of whom are not trusted and 2 are reserve goalkeepers), 201 matches have been missed to injury. Each player averages 7 missed games this season. Celtic, on average, miss 5 players per match to injury.
Meanwhile a financially impoverished opponent once again ignored clear financial red flags to bolster their squad in areas where there were weaknesses.
Conclusion
Celtic are a relatively cash rich club with clear structural weaknesses in the squad and 3 trophies to chase in hopefully another 60+ game season. Effectively, ignoring two back up keepers and those not trusted, Celtic have 23 players to navigate that 2-game-a-week slog. 5 of those are currently injured. The manager clearly stated what he needed. That hasn’t materialised. That is a failure.
What should (and may still) be an historic season, is very much on a knife edge and for what? Celtic are structurally miles ahead of the opposition in Scotland but maybe that’s not good for business.
The ghost of Willo Flood haunts the Celtic boardroom.
Absolutely agree with your conclusions here. The Board have clearly ignored what Lennon asked for and for that they need to accept accountability come the end of the season.
If we do win the League and get to the Scottish Cup final, this squad will be on its knees again.
With another early start for the European qualifiers and hopefully 10IAR and all the pressure next season is going to bring on us, they are displaying an extreme lack of foresight and ambition.
Head for the bunkers dooms day is apon us. Cheer up man it’s only a game ?
I’m pretty cheerful Scott. I’m home, its Saturday. Looking forward to the rest of the weekend! Hope you have a good one too.
You have hit the nail on the head Celtic being so far ahead is not good for business. A second 9 in a row is a major blow to the balance between Celtic and the Rangers basket of clubs. !0 could mean the beginning of the end. Big Pete does not want this. He is willing to cede the league to them in the interest of balance. Celtic have been downsized for years. A fully recovered triumphant resurgent Rangersis better in his mind than a defeated Rangers. If Rangers have to endure 10 in a row they nmay never come back a third time. Whether we care to admit it or not a lot of Celtic supporters will not shell out 500 quid for a season ticket if they cannot watch a Rangers team. Big Pete needs to look out the tarpaulin for the top deck. Bonus is gone. s
Good job we’re not points behind ?
My concern is Lennon has not got the ear of the suits same as last time around and it will be his undoing. Rodgers did succeed in the short term on this, the suits are obviously are keen to tell Lennon to get on with it and if you don’t like it….!
The accumulation of facts and comparative analysis are superficially compelling but more perspective is needed IMO on this matter.
Rangers are not great. They are aggressive and organised, have been unsustainably lucky with their acquisition of talent, have been lucky with injuries so far for first choice players, have a durable replicable style relative to Celtic’s more confidence and inspiration based playing style and there’s a Gerrard awe effect that has impacted player attitudes (that only persists if he’s a good manager…and that is in doubt IMO). In many ways Rangers are better set up to grind out results in Scotland. To be competition to Celtic they only need to be better than the rest and then its a head to head decider. This makes competing against Celtic relatively cheap easy and they’ve worked that out under Gerrard.
If our attacking 4 flare players don’t click along with a wingback or two it can be quite problematic in games…particularly given the lack of creative support and drive coming from defensive midfield as you have highlighted elsewhere. With 4 pt gap now is the time to drop Brown and build on Nthcham and maybe even Soro depending on how good and ready he is alongside McGregor. I would use Christie there too as I think the dynamism and drive he would provide there would be of greater benefit to the team and we can compensate for him well enough further forward. Whether this window has been good all hinges on what Soro is and whether he’s ready.
Celtic’s key problem for several years has been low confidence when faced with stiff opposition. Rangers have become that now. Among our attacking player only Edouard and Christie have a fairly constant belief in themselves that gives the leadership and drive needed on the pitch. More defensively Brown has it (but is faded) and the arrival of Julien has brought some belief to defence (along with Elhamed when he was fit).
Making sure of 9 and 10 IAR would require either a lot of money on under 26 talent or good players near end of career perhaps on loan (like Davis and Defoe). High level battle ready centre halfs, creative-destructive midfielders and forward creators and scorers are not really in budget other than 1 or 2 here and there. Julien and Edouard have been such acquisitions. They have worked out really well….but they were super high risk acquisitions given the financial restraints of company like Celtic and if both had failed would have created real problems from a financial management perspective. So in that sense the board did stick their necks out (Ntcham is in category too). It could be argued that if they had done another 1 or 2 at that sort of price and level and it hadn’t gone well the club would now be in a position of financial retrenchment….
So more talent and more money great…I’d like it too….but how is it being financed? We cannot have the King ‘business model’ of only breaking even from success in Champions League. Our fans would not accept a team of old stager grind it out players….and our durable financial strength would risk going into reverse. Then we would max out the budget on the £0.5-3m gamble players like Bayo etc (who needs a chance…he’s not going to be silky but he may be effective?) and fill up with lower league value opps like Rangers do (Aribo etc).
As you can tell….I’m a but irritated by the general griping about Celtic spending…but do share the anxieties of other fans too. As long as Rangers are able to sustain fantasy King economics and produce a team that is better than the other 10 SPL sides I don’t see that angst going away. The manager does have better resources and its down to him and the players to exploit it.
I would like more player development and more risk taken with young and new players to get them in the side (though not too bad a job done there) but it is very hard and risky and could backfire in any given season as it may mean dropping points when Rangers hoover up against the other 10.
My fingers are crossed that Gerrard’s luck is running out.
On balance, despite all the points above and maybe seeming to contradict myself, I think 9IAR would have best secured by 3-4 hard confidence 30-ish players….middling players but players that wont fold under pressure….imagine the howls from the fans if we had brought in Alan Power, Gary Dicker, Niall McGinn, Marvin Bartley, etc…
There’s no easy win that accomplishes all desires and securing 9/10IAR.
Best wishes
mojo
PS personally I’m not the biggest Lenny fan…he’s great guy and gives his all but I don’t think he is the guy to weave the magic we need.
@ mojomogoz
“It could be argued that if they had done another 1 or 2 at that sort of price and level and it hadn’t gone well the club would now be in a position of financial retrenchment….”
The ghost of Oldco stalks the land. After the demise of Oldco some Celtic fans are so concerned about the club’s solvency that even with £40m in the bank we should refrain from spending in case of causing a financial meltdown. Oldco’s woes were caused by systemic mismanagement for over a decade. Celtic could be accused of mismanagement but stemming from our unwillingness to press home our financial advantage home.
There is no financial advantage for so long as the money remains in the bank account as opposed to on the pitch.
A huge amount of negativity towards the board and Peter Lawwell in particular. I cannot accept for a second that our CEO is basically trying to give the title to the Scum, never in a million years do I accept that. A huge problem that we have in trying to attract new players, us down to the two things Lenny brought up when questioned about Wanyama. Availability, and affordability. I also think that you need to add Willingness in there. Players that we seem to be interested in buying choose to play elsewhere, other than the SPL. They believe the English press that it is a pub league, they believe that it is corrupt, Sporar chose Portugal, Atsu chose to stay at Newcastle, apparently all finances were agreed but they didn’t want to come. The SFA/SPL need to step up to the plate, and sell the whole Scottish football scene better, instead of shining their arses in masonic lodges pampering to one club
Do you think there could be major shake up in the summer? ie PL to retire n NFL replaced hence stockpile of readies for new manager?
Lenny says he’s happy.
I’d rather spend big money on quality than big money on dross.
Rushing signings in to placate a Social Media led fanbase is not the best answer to problem solving.
We have
Forster Gordon Bain – Hazard
Elhamed Frimpong Bauer
Jullien Simunovic Ajer Elhamed Bitton -Welsh
Taylor Bolingoli Hayes- Gutman
Brown Bitton Sorro-Kouassi Connell Robertson
McGregor Ntcham Rogic Christie-Oko-Flex Connell Henderson
Forrest Elyounoussi Johnston Hayes Shved Arzani-Dembele Oko-Flex
Griffiths Édouard Bayo Klimala
I’d say that’s a fairly healthy squad with decent quality backup.
More so however under a Manager not constricted to playing one system overly reliant on wingers like the previous 2 Managers.
Yes it would be great to sign ready made good to go senior professional players but unfortunately they don’t all want to come to the backwater that is Scottish Football.
Not the ones in demand anyway.
Well done today young Welsh by far the best CB in the first half.
Both Jullien and Ajer has their moments early on but this kid was solid.
Neil Lennon once again proving youth does get a chance and that he is willing to alter things in order to get the result.
Regardless of what the Social Media Stein’s might think.
you are, perhaps knowingly, adding in players nowhere near the first team squad plus those clearly not trusted. Throwing the simple numbers game re squad size back doesn’t change what Lennon said he needed.
These players exist,are at Celtic and available for selection.
Whether they are selected or not is irrelevant.
Welsh’s selection and performance today proves my point I think.
We can violently agree about overall squad size.
As regards Welsh delighted for him. I just hope it is by design and not make do and mend.
This squad is good enough. Aye, I’d have preferred another centre back in but we’ll be fine. We need to let Jozo go this summer and bring in someone reliable tho.
‘A social media led fan base’… I don’t think so.
You should stick to analysing numbers rather than talking up your opinion! The club has just spent +/-£5m on 2 players nothing like the £50k on willow flood.
We have a healthy large squad and if we can’t rest injured players v the likes of Hamilton then we should just give the title to them.
Stop panicking over nothing…. and don’t join the spoilt brats that want a new team every window.
Hail hail