A quick piece on Michael Johnston given the furore following the St Mirren game.
According to FotMob he led the team with 0.46 xG and 0.26 xA giving an Expected Scoring Contribution (xSC) of 0.72. This is slightly below his average of 0.8. And, of course, this yielded 1 assist and 0 goals – leaving his tallies thus unchanged for the season.
Two warnings:
- His sample this season is very low – 4.88 matches worth of minutes (900 is my threshold)
- I haven’t captured the St Mirren game data myself but the points being made below are unchanged
Attacking Winger Scoring Contribution
Here is a very simple of view of the primary wingers in the seasons I have xG and xA data for.
It plots Actual Scoring Contribution (Goals + Assists per 90m) against Expected Scoring Contribution (xG + xA per 90m).
There is potentially a lot to unpack on this chart but don’t get distracted! Other articles may follow. Let’s focus on Johnston.
He only has two seasons where he has racked up enough minutes to qualify for this chart. In both 18/19 and 19/20 he completed around 12 matches worth of minutes.
As a young player his numbers would place him in a banding that includes the worst of Roberts (17/18 injury hit), the worst of Forrest (17/18) and Morgan (hmmm). I would say that is OK for a young player.
This season (top left corner), his xSC is up there with the best seasons Celtic wingers have had in recent times (Forrest (19/20) and Elyounoussi (20/21) – both had 0.81 xSC). Johnston’s current xSC of 0.8 (slightly lower post St Mirren) is therefore impressive.
What is perhaps surprising (not yet astonishing due to sample size) is he has 0 goals and only 1 assist this season off such a high xSC. That assist came when he was playing off the right wing against Real Betis as opposed to his normal left wing position.
Conclusion
You can explain this with “bad luck” to some extent.
But such a disparity between Expected and Actual, even at such small sample sizes, must surely come into the “poor execution” territory. Remember, xG models are built on what an “average” player would achieve.
Maybe this is confirming Johnston’s final shot and final pass are just very poor quality relative to the positions he finds himself in. The eye test would support that.
It is also perfectly feasible he will go on a run of assists and goals similar to 19/20 when he racked up 0.94 SC per 90m compared to an xSC of only 0.52.
We can certainly hope so.
Johnston does not help the left back by looking for a pass down the wing or even for a short pass. He has more passes back than forward. He isn’t as fast as he once was. He cuts inside predictably. His decision making is woeful. First touch is a tackle! Why play him on the left? He passes the buck more often than not. The last European game had a perfect example of that. plenty opportunities. He is weak and offers little confidence to the fans and the players around him. A loan period should make or break. If we are looking at wide men in the transfer market then he must go elsewhere (and Forrest needs to keep fit otherwise he will follow him out the door.).
“It is also perfectly feasible he will go on a run of assists and goals”
Mm, unless he makes a significant contribution against St Johnstone then I can’t see him getting much game time, as we will, hopefully, have our injured players back plus, again hopefully, reinforcements.
Very fair attempt to put Mikey’s play into context. I am afraid that much of the Celtic Jury have already delivered their verdict and are on his back as they were with james Forrest until 2 years ago. We are getting more and more impatient. i am seeing Owen Moffat being written off on the basis of one start and a sun appearance.
Terracing Tams trump proper analysis it seems.
Keep up this valuable good work- it is appreciated by a good few of us.
I totally agree with Rod’s comment, about Mikey Johnston distribution to our Team, it’s basically comes under p-p-performance. His distribution with the ball is p-p, his decision making with the ball is p-p, he has lost his direct play approach towards goal is p-p, frinstance, away to the German team, we played recently in the ELGS, where he was straight through on Goal Frame, alas, only for him to run to the wing, instead of being direct, & heading straight forward towards goal, instead he wastes a good opportunity to score a goal. That’s just one example, of Mikey Johnston’s poor decision making, he brings nothing to the table. He is like that player we signed a while back, is it Lewis Morgan I’m thinking of? Anyway with @ least LM, @ least you got the odd goal here & there from LM, as for MJ, well the Jury has came back with a Verdict of, MJ is P*sh, best putting MJ out on loan, with the option to off load asap, he is not the answer, nor does he fit into our style of play, MJ is more a passenger, than a asset, I’m afraid it’s Taxi for Mikey. Yeah & give Owen Moffat, more off a run out, he has shown promising signs, in the fleeting appearances, that OM has been given so far this Season, in what I’ve seen.