We all know Larsson was a world class talent and the greatest forward Celtic has seen since Dalglish. But how can we show this using statistic? Advanced in game data is only available relatively recently, but using simple goals and assists (i.e. attacking productivity) allied to minutes played we get overall scoring contribution rates.
The Need To Benchmark
This week I showed you the scoring contribution rates for all forwards since 2005. This date was part practical in that this is the earliest I could obtain appearance data and it represents the beginning of the Strachan reign and the change of strategy away from buying finished articles for big money. You can see the results here in Comparing Strikers Since Strachan.
In judging players it is always useful to have a bench mark. For defensive players there is little doubt Van Dijk is the closest to a world class player Celtic have had since Larsson. In The Problem Position I showed that using Defensive Action Success Rate that defenders could be rated according to the base defensive actions. Van Dijk’s 81% score has not been matched in the time I have recorded stats (since 2014/15). This illustrates the narrow margins between good and world class. But remember these are averages. That means that Van Dijk was operating at a higher level than the other centre backs according to this key metric each and every game.
Similarly, with the strikers, Scoring Contribution (Goals + Assists) is a very basic measure of attacking productivity. But it passes the sniff test. That is, when we look at the averages since 2005 and see the likes of Killen, Ciftci, Murphy at the bottom, and Dembele, Keane and Griffiths at the top, it feels right in terms of an assessment of overall striking effectiveness.
Rather like Van Dijk and the DASR bench mark of 81%, can we use Larsson as the bench mark for strikers? Here is a truly world class player who over seven seasons scored 242 goals. That has to be the upper limit upon which to judge the strikers.
Larsson
I spent a happy four hours perusing the splendid Celtic Wiki to trawl through the seven Larsson seasons assessing how many assists he got (much video watched) and recording the minutes played to be able to place him on the strikers chart.
And here it is:
The way to read this is bottom left to top right in a diagonal. Larsson is the leading striker by this method as we’d expect but not perhaps by the gulf you’d imagine. Again, think Van Dijk and being 2% higher on DASR than recent peers.
If we look at the top 10 Scoring Contributions is all seems closer that we’d all expect.
Guidetti had an eye-catching cameo for the Hoops. But a cameo was what it was (1986 minutes). And the same can be said for Keane (1582 minutes). Larsson performed at this level for seven seasons game after game (27117 minutes).
What is encouraging is that the most recent strikers, Dembele, Griffiths and Edouard, are all up there. Bear in mind that Larsson’s performances for Celtic were during his peak years from 26-32. Dembele and Edouard are in their very early 20’s. Celtic’s strategy of picking up highly regard but young talent is bearing fruit.
Larsson scored 242 goals and created 128 assists in the equivalent of 301 completed matches. Given the gaps in data I found, the minutes played are probably slightly over stated, and the number of assists will be under stated. He was a recognised world class talent. He represents the bench mark for all Celtic strikers going forward. What is encouraging is that Celtic’s all time most expensive signing is, at a much younger age, on track to match his stellar achievements.
Brilliant