When I started Celtic By Numbers the data I collected was very basic. Mainly defensive actions and passing and shot data but no xG.
It has developed over the years as you learn more techniques and best practise.
Now I rarely add “new” data points a) because it’s a real pain to do and b) because there are so many now that all the obvious capturable data is accounted for.
However, there is an element of Packing data I have not hitherto captured.
A reminder – Packing assigns a score when you pass, receive or dribble past opponents whilst moving the ball forwards. The score depends on the number of opponents bypassed (or packed) and their position – you get more points for defenders.
Pack Recovery
If a player gives the ball away, or on the other side, recovers a loose pass or intercepts it, if there are then members of your team on the “wrong side” of the ball (i.e. they are now ahead of the ball relative to their own goal) they can also be said to have been packed.
Here are a couple of examples from Sunday.
Coulson drives inside for Aberdeen and attempts a pass that O’Riley anticipates and intercepts. Aberdeen now has three players wrong side of the ball – circled.
O’Riley has Packed 3 players due to this recovery.
Pack Turnover
Conversely, here on 32 minutes, Hatate plays a loose pass backwards leading to Aberdeen recovering the ball. This leaves five Celtic players ahead of the ball.
Hatate would get a negative Packing score based on this turnover.
Packing Scores vs Aberdeen
What does Sunday’s data tell us about Celtic players?
Firstly, here are the Pack Recovery stats:
Oh. Another stat that makes O’Riley look good. Well, gosh darn.
I’d expect central midfielder to be tops on this as with the packing passing stats.
This may also be a metric that helps to explain Juranovic’s utility over Ralston. If anything, Ralston’s attacking data is better. However, Juranovic’s speed and anticipation will be rewarded by this metric.
On the other side, let’s look at Turnovers.
If this was golf, it would look great for Hatate. But it isn’t.
From 4 turnovers his Packing Score took a hefty -29 hit.
You don’t really want to see defenders having any of these as if a defender turns the ball over, generally a lot of advanced players are now out the game.
This is a good proxy for vision, anticipation, agility, positioning, decision making.
As always, this will become a pattern after about 10 matches.
I get it but it must be real hard i think its worst if the ball gets turned over at the centre line or 10meters either side of it but its good stastistic
Yea that’s fair
Hatate is definitely a low percentage pass type player. Probably a player that hasn’t (so far) been constrained by a awareness of his stats.
You find a lot of players probably lose a bit of their edge keeping their pass % up.
He loses the ball a lot but when his direct passing comes off it tends to be highly effective. He’s definitely not found his balance yet, but when he does and I think he will, he’ll be a much improved player. He’s probably the definition of a player with lots of room for growth (potential).
O’Riley is a superb player and should probably be one of the first players on the team sheet. His vision, first touch and control are all excellent – if you watch him off the ball he’s constantly scanning which is the sign of an elite player.
Yeah Ryan M, too many passes & over-playing it, especially in the final third Area of the pitch/field, we need to be more ‘Direct’ in our play, towards Goal.
Reo Hatate can be direct when he wants too, frinstance, his thunderbolt against Hearts @ Tynecastle last Season, & his two goals against Sevco, @ CP on February this Year. More of that young Man, his weakness tends to be, sometimes slack passing, & being easly shoved off the Ball. He needs to do more weight lifting, to build up his physeque, & make it awkward, for the appoinents to get the ball off of him.
I would also like to see all our players, trying to pick out Kyogo runs, more often in our play, because no doubt, Kyogo is a direct towards goal type of player as well. Frinstance, League Cup Final last Season against Hibs, @ Hampden. Not only Kyogo’s 1st Goal in said match, but his second goal, direct from a Tom Rogic free kick, proves the point I’m making about Kyogo’s runs, certainly wise food for thought.
Hail ! Hail ! & COYBIG Later’s Folks. 🙂 🙂
Maybe I’m being obtuse but with ten outfield players on the pitch how can one turnover lead to a minus pack score of fourteen.
Not at all Gerard happy to clarify
Packing Points are awarded according to what players you take out:
Defenders 3pts
Midfielders 2pts
Strikers 1pt
If you have take a defender out the game with a forward pass you have likely created a good opportunity
Thanks Alan, interesting.
I was impressed by Welsh on Sunday. However, are you at all concerned that he never touches the ball with his left foot?
He had very little pressurised possession vs Aberdeen and this allowed him, when the ball arrived from his right as it invariably did, to take 2 or 3 right foot touches to move the ball forward.
He just never uses his left in accepting possession even when under no pressure. I once counted his touches at LCB throughout a game and he had 97% right foot use.
Is this a worry or limiting factor for him based on any data or ranking you have?
One footed players are a pet hate i must say. Not only at Celtic but grass roots too!
He is not unique in this and i’d love all players to be two footed
the extent to which it is an issue depends on how well they mitigate with touch, control, speed of thought and movement. Welsh under pressure from Salah eg might be a frightening proposition
Players playing & using both feet, should be worked upon, on the trainning sessions.
Yeah, dribbling around small cones, etc, & also practicing taking free-kicks, &
penalties with the so-called weaker foot.
I agree Welsh had a good game and Starfeld may find it difficult getting back in. However one criticism on certain sites was that he slowed the game by taking more than two touches. You have demonstrated how effective he was with these extra touches and we know two touches is preferred. However from an analytical point of view are there any stats to say one is better than the other.
http://celticbynumberscom.ipage.com/carter-vickers-starfelt-welsh-the-verdict/
From January – Starfelt cut out the mistakes but not improved on the DASR