The Rangers Can Frustrate Celtic. But Is That Enough?

Celtic are clear favourites to extend their lead over The Rangers to 13 points on Sunday. Do the numbers support the optimism?

Tale of the Tape

If we look at Celtic’s home SPFL form and The Rangers away form, the trends suggest Hooped joy:

Celtic have a near perfect home record but that one blemish came in the last meeting versus Aberdeen. The visitors average 1.73 points per away game but a healthy 1.93 goals per game. Away teams have found it incredibly difficult to score at Celtic Park with only 2 conceded and one of those being Motherwell’s rather wide interpretation of sportsmanship.

With the pressure on the visitors, it all suggests a comfortable afternoon for the Champions. But let’s dig into the performance data from the previous encounters.

Blue Containment

The consensus was Celtic dominated in the first meeting in September. However, considering Expected Goals, despite having 17 shots and 7 on target, Celtic’s xG was only 1.388. This is the lowest xG total Celtic have had and still… Share on X

The Rangers have been more successful at disrupting Celtic’s passing game than any other team in Scotland. They have twice restricted Celtic to under 400 completed passes which no other team has done. Celtic’s average possession in the league is 70% but they have managed 60% and 56% against this opposition. If any team can limit Celtic’s possession it is the Ibrox side, who are second in the possession table averaging 53% away and 55% in all matches.

A low Packing rate (Glossary!) is usually synonymous with a poor result and Celtic only completed 36 Pack Passes (passes that take opponents out the game) in the first meeting compared to a SPFL average of 51. Celtic’s Pass Impect score of 172 in the September tie is their lowest home total of the season.

In the two matches, Celtic have been restricted to 5.13 and 4.09 Passes Per Opposition Defensive Action, the two lowest values of the SPFL season.

Averaging 30 possessions in the box, Celtic managed just 20 in their 1-0 win earlier. The Hoops created 13 chances compared to a season SPFL average of 16.

The Rangers have been successful on containing Celtic to a greater degree than any other Scottish team this season.

Attacking Threat?

The Rangers style against Celtic is generally long balls into channels and lots of crosses. The Light Blues still lag behind Hibernian as team able to implement a passing focussed style against the Hoops. But their direct play has resulted in 15 and 18 Celtic defenders being Packed in the two meetings, both domestic highs against,

No team has attempted the 19 crosses the visitors tried in September but only 2 connected. ‘

At Celtic Park, they only mustered 5 shots and the xG of 0.35 is one of the lowest against Celtic at home this season. They only had possession of the ball 5 times in the Celtic box. Share on X

Conclusion

The Rangers have definitely improved on last season following several multi goal battering’s. They have been adept at frustrating Celtic’s play to a greater extent than any other Scottish team. However, they were not able to offer much attacking threat in that initial defeat.

How much will they risk knowing a draw maintains a 10-point deficit at the top of the league?