The Rangers Dangers

Celtic have played their Scottish Cup semi final opponents three times this season, winning twice at Ibrox with a 0-0 at Celtic Park. Where does danger lurk for Celtic’s treble hopes on Sunday?

The Glossary is like a ray of sunshine over Hampden.

All the numbers below are per 90-minute averages. I compare the average The Rangers performance against Celtic alongside the average for all SPFL sides against Celtic and finally all Celtic’s averages against the other SPFL sides.

Possession

Celtic dominate possession to a massive extent in Scotland, averaging 68% per SPFL match. The Rangers have managed to restrict Celtic to 58% on average. With that advantage, Celtic will typically complete double the number of passes as their opponent. Of course, it is what you do with it and where the possession occurs that really matters. But in terms of overall control, we can expect Celtic to dominate the ball. No real surprise there.

Creativity

So, what does all that possession result in?

The Rangers have created more chances against Celtic that the average SPFL side, as you might expect. But the Ibrox club’s averages are closer to the SPFL averages than to Celtics. Based on past performance Celtic can be expected to create more than double the number of scoring opportunities compared to their opponents.

An anomaly probably created due to the small sample (The Rangers averages vs Celtic account for only 360 minutes of action) is that the Light Blues have managed to create 1.33 Big Chances per 90m, more than Celtic’s season SPFL average of 1. Indeed, whilst there is an average of 1.47 Big Chances in SPFL matches involving Celtic, there are 2.33 in the Derby games.

Pack passes is the number of forward passes that take at least one opponent out the game. They are important as they get the team nearer the goal and eliminate defensive players from the action. Although The Rangers are better than the SPFL average, Celtic can be expected to execute nearly double that number providing a platform for attack. The Rangers have tended to prefer a very direct long ball game against Celtic. This will result in lower overall Pack Pass rates, but potentially higher Total Impect scores for those that are successful.

But again, based on Total Impect (value of players taken out the game by forward passes – defenders bypassed gets you the most points), Celtic will out play their opponents around 2:1 in forward passes, with The Rangers fairing slightly better than the SPFL average.

The Rangers direct play success can be hinted at in the Average Number of Defenders bypassed by forward passes. Take out defenders with passes and you should be creating chances. Here the Light Blues are much closer to Celtic, averaging 17 against Celtic compared to the Champions 20 average per 90m. It is not uncommon for sides to target high balls at Celtic’s left flank. Not only is Tierney diminutive compared to Lustig on the other side, he is often far forward meaning a quick transition to the Celtic left can find space.

And The Rangers will rely heavily on crosses into the box, far more so than any other team Celtic have faced domestically. They have attempted 16 crosses per match, being successful with 2.67 on average. This suggests Celtic will go with a back four to ensure there are full backs to stop this much used outlet. Otherwise Celtic risk being outnumbered in the wide areas against Tavernier/Candeias and John/Murphy.

Ultimately Celtic are creating nearly one goals more worth of chances than their opponents. The Rangers create slightly more than the league average but nowhere near the 16 Celtic manage per game. Celtic average 12 chances per 90m against The Rangers this season.

Goal Threat

Creating is a prerequisite to scoring goals, but what about actual goal threat?

The Rangers have not managed any more goals against the Hoops than your average SPFL side. But their xG of 1.002 suggests they should have. Thinking back to Morelos’s misses in the last match, and at Celtic Park, the danger for the Champions is if The Rangers start to take their chances more effectively. Celtic’s xG against the challengers is 1.689 on average this season. So far then, Celtic are out performing their xG and The Rangers underperforming. You must bear in mind the small sample and that Celtic played with 10 players for a significant period at Ibrox.

Celtic will have considerably more shots, and likely double the number on target. Although both sides shot accuracy is similar, The Rangers have underperformed in terms of converting those shots, managing only 22% conversion against Celtic.

All this suggests The Rangers can perform better in the finishing department. However, we all know (well, those that have read this site!) that Celtic are underperforming themselves this season in both chance creation and execution. With creative talent now fit and available, it may be a case of missed opportunities for the Ibrox side.

Defending

Most striking is that Celtic are making more defensive errors that their opponents. To be transparent, this metric comes with a bit of a health warning. It is subjective, and it may be the case I am more critical and forensic on Celtic errors than opponents’ errors.

But The Rangers have failed to profit from Celtic errors in these matches. Celtic give up an average of 0.313 xG per 90m through errors, more than the seasons average.

Celtic goalkeepers are averaging 2.33 saves per 90m against Sunday’s opponents compared to 5.33 by them.

Finally, discipline is key and both sides average 23 disciplinary points per 90m against each other. This is, not surprisingly, above average. Bobby Madden will be under scrutiny too.

The Rangers Dangers

We’ve looked at team performance, but who are the dangerous individuals to Celtic’s treble hopes?

In three matches The Rangers have managed 26 shots. 17 of them have been on target. But the story of The Rangers efforts against Celtic this season is that of one man – the multi-million pound Colombian Morelos.

He has managed a remarkable 10 shots against the Champions this season and EVERY single one has been inside the box. Only 4 have been on target and his xG from those efforts is 1.768 compared to 0 goals scored. He’s either due one or his market value is a wee bit inflated.

Tavernier is always a danger offensively to the Celts. We’ll look at creativity in a moment, but he has managed 4 shots against Celtic and 3 have been inside the box, 2 on target. If Morelos continues on this streak, the Ibrox outfit will need one of their other attackers to step up.

In terms of creativity, the most effective players in getting the ball into dangerous areas are as follows.

Morelos tops the list without playing a single successful forward pass. The reason is that at the end of every pass needs to be a receiver. And Morelos is excellent at holding the ball up. 28 times he has successfully taken in forward passes, 8 of them from Tavernier. For context, Griffiths tops the Receive Impect metric for Celtic, averaging 58.23 per 90m. Morelos is on 63 per 90m versus Celtic.

Tavernier is the top forward passer, amassing 123 Pass Impect score over 3 matches. His average of 41 per 90m compares with Celtic’s top Pass Impect scorer Armstrong on 51.39. But Tavernier is a full back. Tierney’s season average is 33.30. Tavernier is also the 3^rd highest Receive Impect scorer, and the joint top Dribble Impect scorer. To say he plays up against Sinclair and Tierney, Tavernier certainly performs highly effectively against the Champions.

I wonder if Rodgers will put Forrest on the left side to combat Tavernier. He is more defensively robust, his Defensive Action Success Rate of 33% being better than the other attacking midfielders. For example, Sinclair’s is 17%.

Candeias and Windass have both performed adequately against Celtic and can provide threat. Murphy’s numbers are of course only across one match.

A notable number to pull out is McCrorie, the young defender / defensive midfielder. A Pass Impect of 44 from 180 minutes for one so young stands out.

Both Windass and Tavernier have created 5 chances each in the three matches. Murphy’s 2 came in the one match. Only one of The Rangers goals was assisted – Candeias’s goal at Ibrox. The Rangers may be concerned at the lack of creativity beyond the aforementioned Windass and Tavernier.

Conclusion

Celtic will be clear favourites on Sunday. Based on games against Celtic, The Rangers are nearer to an average SPFL side than they are to the Champions. But a semi-final will see both sides fully on their game. The Rangers may take encouragement that their relatively poor run of finishing against the Hoops could be due to come to an end. Celtic may reflect that their whole season has seen below par finishing.

Danger from The Rangers comes mainly from the marauding Tavernier, and the hold up play and box craft of Morelos. Celtic will go four at the back to have full backs to stop crosses and counter the long diagonals to the wings the Blues favour. I would expect Rodgers to go with Forrest wide left as the best defensive shield for Tierney, with Roberts coming onto the right. A physically strong centre back is needed to combat the aggressive Morelos, so I expect Boyata and Ajer to be paired.

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