Celtic meet The Rangers for the 6th time this season. Outscoring their opponents by 11-3, Celtic have knocked out their Glasgow rivals in two domestic Cups. Judging average performance is tricky as The Rangers are on their third manager of the season! The possession based passing game of Warburton, with a Deila-esque rigidity to 4-2-3-1 was replaced with an ultra-defensive performance at Celtic Park to gain a 1-1 draw, under stand-in gaffer Graeme Murty. It is too early to assess Caixinha’s style as has not been able to trade his own players, but last Sunday saw a relatively passive and deep lying set up from the Ibrox outfit.
Celtic Player Attacking
Celtic will miss Dembele, having managed 5 goals and 2 assists in 387 minutes. He is averaging a goal or assist every 55 minutes.
The following are averages over the last five derbies. Values are either % or are an average number of events per 90 minutes.
- The 1st column is Celtic’s averages vs The Rangers
- The 2nd column is Celtic’s averages vs all opposition in 2016/17
- The 3rd column is The Rangers averages vs Celtic
- The 4th column is all opposition averages vs Celtic
Passing and Possession
The Rangers passing and possession is around the average of all opposition Celtic face. You need to balance some extremes in the averages (i.e. Barcelona and Albion Rovers!) but over 53 matches, The Rangers are around average for Celtic’s opponents.
Celtic however complete significantly less passes and have lower possession that against the average opponent. The tension of a derby perhaps.
Attacking
Celtic are generally out performing their xG. That is, based on chance quality, they would be expected to score 99.18 goals but have scored 129. Against the Light Blues, Celtic are slightly under performing the shots they have taken.
Similarly, The Rangers are under performing their xG. I suspect this is a trend for the season (would defer to @TheSPFLRadar on that point) given the difficulties the strike force of Waghorn, Garner and Miller have had adapting to top flight Scottish football.
Both clubs have underperformed against the shot conversion averages. Despite this, Celtic have created slightly above average numbers of chances – creating 5 to 1.6 per 90m. Also having 8 to 3.6 shots on target per 90m, it is no wonder Celtic have outscored their rivals 11-3.
It is noticeable Celtic complete many less dribbles/take ons than average. The “take no prisoners” style of this derby may explain that.
Defending
The most startling aspect of the defensive data are the number of defensive errors The Rangers have committed. Meanwhile Celtic have been relatively sanguine with lower defensive saves than average required, and half the number of errors committed.
Summary
It’s a derby, Celtic are away, there is little in it other than pride for the away team whilst the home team are seemingly struggling to adapt to their new coach. I don’t bet and I don’t generally do predictions, so you’ll have to consult those spamming betting sites for that. Enjoy the match!