By James Dailey
Odsonne Edouard and Fraser Forster give Celtic a chance to win the Club’s second European trophy.
There I said it. But….
I want to start by laying out the case as to why I believe Celtic are legitimately competitive at this level. I’ve gone back through the last three European campaigns and filtered down to opponents who are relevant to the remaining 32 teams in the Europa League. Effectively, I’ve gotten rid of the Linfield’s and the PSG’s to examine how Celtic have performed against the likes of Valencia, Salzburg, Zenit, Lazio, Astana, Rosenberg, etc. The result is 25 games and an average xG of 1.13 and xG conceded of 1.13. We’ve created an xG of less than 1 in 11 games and conceded an xG of less than 1 in 14. We’ve created more than 1.5 in xG in 5 games and conceded more than 1.5 in xG in 6.
This simple comparison has me confident in stating the following:
- Celtic have proven we are competitive at this level.
- The margins are incredibly fine.
- We need to prioritize creating and finishing quality chances.
Power Couple
Edouard and Forster are precisely the kinds of players which can help us tilt the “fine margins” in our direction. For example, Lazio “beat us” in the xG battle in both games and by 3.31 to 1.87 in aggregate. The combination of Forster being excellent, and timely finishing like Ntcham’s goal, enabled Celtic to win two games against what is objectively a better team.
I believe the most important issue in determining whether we can make a deep Europa League run is whether we can score enough goals. I believe this can be boiled down to two vital questions:
- Will Edouard step up to perform at an elite level in Europe?
- Will we get enough creativity from our midfield?
Our record of conceding 1.13 in xG per game is not hugely different than our domestic record over this time of around 0.70, but our output in attack has been far worse comparatively. We NEED to be more threatening in attack to be a legitimate threat.
Edouard the Great?
As great as Edouard has been this season in Scotland, his performance levels in Europe since arriving at Celtic have been relatively mediocre. I’ll be doing analysis by position groups over the next couple of weeks, which will compare our players to those from the other fifteen teams in our pot. Here is a quick preview relating to Edouard, specifically:
Edouard has performed in Europe below the level of the average striker we’ll be facing, though he has improved in each season, with an xG of 0.38 and xA of 0.19 so far this season. I think he is clearly good enough to take a leap forward in Europe, but I also believe this introduces the question as to how best to play tactically in order to optimize Edouard. He’s been relatively isolated playing as a single striker against better sides and offered little impact. In aggregate, he played 717 minutes versus the likes of Valencia, Salzburg, RB Leipzig, etc. over the past two campaigns and averaged only 0.23 xG and 0.09 xA per 90 minutes in those games. We need more out of Edouard, and Lennon needs to setup the team to help him be more effective at this level.
The Future is Now
While playing Edouard with another striker is an idea I advocated for in my first piece at Celtic by Numbers, I believe another important variable for optimizing Edouard’s talents in Europe is playing a more create midfield. I will be blunt – our starting midfield should be McGregor, Christie, and Ntcham. As Alan recently documented, these three players are significantly more creative than Brown, while also being significantly younger and more athletic. While McGregor surely offers less defensively overall than Brown, I believe the addition of Christie and his elite work rate and running would more than offset the impact.
I believe we’ve only seen McGregor play the deep laying playmaker role on two occasions the past 2 seasons. The first was versus Salzburg in December 2018 (with Christie and Rogic) in the 2-1 loss, and then recently against Hamilton for18 minutes when we scored 3 goals. The whole of Europe have now seen how good Salzburg is, and in that game last December, Celtic conceded 2.53 in xG. To put that 2.53 in xG for Salzburg into context, they averaged 2.38 xG in this season’s Champion’s League group stage against Liverpool, Napoli, and Genk. McGregor had 14 interceptions in that game, which is more than Brown has had in any game since April 2016 versus Hearts. I believe it is reasonable to say that lineup, which included Rogic instead of Ntcham, defended pretty well against an excellent European side.
In the two games vs RB Leipzig, Christie and McGregor were played as the pair in a 4-2-3-1 and held them to xG of 1.16 and 0.94 in the two games. Between the two of them, they averaged 12 defensive duels and almost 6 interceptions in the two games. Again, for perspective Brown averaged 8 defensive duels and 7 interceptions in this season’s group stage. In the 4 games versus Lazio and Rennes, Brown and McGregor combined to average 6 defensive duels and 6 interceptions.
While the sample size of these stats is limited, they are well supported by each player’s overall stats and indicate to me that Celtic would sacrifice little if anything defensively, while significantly increasing our midfield creativity and athleticism.
Conclusion
Given the significant and growing financial disparities in global football, the opportunity to have a legitimate chance to compete for a European trophy is likely to be rare for Celtic for the foreseeable future. Domestic dominance remains historic and possibly on the cusp of becoming even more unprecedented in its nature. However, I believe our Club should remain ambitious in Europe; particularly when a serious opportunity presents itself. We do not have the best team of the remaining 32, but we are not far off and we may very well have the best keeper and striker- Celtic need to play to those strengths. A deep run is likely to require heroic effort, some luck, and a decent draw, but I also believe it will require courageous and ambitious decisions by our Manager. Springtime in Gdansk should be a real target and not just a dream.
Great analysis as always. However, there is the other factor which Brown provides, which is immeasurable . That grit and determination to get the team over the line and not accept defeat.
For me that’s invaluable and Sunday’s game against Aberdeen showed that side of Brown driving on his teammates against a rejuvenated Aberdeen team who (without the benefit of detailed analysis) played really well and arguably better than us in difficult conditions.
A midfield 3 of Calmac, Christie and Ntcham or Rogic is the only way forward for Celtic. The period back in November 2018 proved that we do not need Brown holding (back) in the midfield. Thank you for the stats to back up what I see. Brown can be very sloppy in possession at times and we cannot afford those errors. His leadership qualities are what Lennon sees and so he stays on the teamsheet as a first choice but not mine. We have enough leaders in Calmac, Ajer and Jullien to encourage the team through.
Mm.
I’m not sure all the teams you’re comparing but there’s no way the likes of Astana and Rosenberg should be considered when trying to assess likely standard of the remaining teams.
Salzburg and Seville were significantly better than us and I’m not sure besting Cluj, Rennes and (a shockingly poorly EL performing) Lazio is any measure of whether we’d do any better against that calibre of opposition this time.
Personally, I’ll wait until after we, hopefully, dispense with Copenhagen and, I’m sure, far better last 16 opponents before I check out any Polish phrase books!