Turnbull’s Passing Range

As Celtic’s winter break training resumes, amidst the many new faces, it is missing ones that may cause concern.

David Turnbull came into Celtic on the back of a long recovery from serious knee injury. Not until December 2020, and a standout performance in defeating soon-to-be French Champions OSC Lille, did he cement a place in Celtics first team.

Now, having played more minutes than any other Celt under Postecoglou (2839) he is again absent, this time with a long-term hamstring injury manifest in the League Cup Final versus Hibernian.

There has been much excitement around Hatate and Ideguchi as engine room replacements. Riley McGree is also seemingly close to joining, bringing more energy to the midfield.

But, how will Turnbull be missed?

Starter

Still a young player (22), becoming a first pick at Celtic at that age is still huge progress in itself.

He has now played more games worth of minutes this season (31.5) than last (26.8).

What remains, possibly elite at a European level, it is his piece delivery. His Expected Assists (xA) from free kicks and corners is 0.17 which would be a good xA for a midfielder in total! This is almost doubled from 0.09 last season. Given context – a team where anyone is much over 6ft – this is impressive. What has been noticeable is that set play variety has been used by Celtic to offset a quota of big lumps to aim at.

Still, to be improving in his niche skill is nice!

Defensive

Early in the season I signposted that Turnbull maybe adapting to Postecoglou’s more aggressive pressing from the front style with improved defensive metrics.

In certain games this is true, but as this time his Defensive Action Success Rate remains at 32% whilst his ability to win back possession from defensive actions is up from 32% to 37%.

Not transformational levels of improvement, overall.

Scoring Contribution

Expected Scoring Contribution (xG + xA) is up. Last season it was 0.68 per 90m and this it is 0.77. What may be influencing the perception of some, is that actual Scoring Contribution is down – from 0.67 to 0.51. But these are still high numbers for a midfielder.

What remains a concern is shot selection. Shots outside the box has gone up from 64% to 69%. Consequently, shots on target are down from 1.31 to 1.01 whilst shots off target and blocked have both risen.

Shot selection remains an issue across the midfield three used so far.

Creativity

On the Huddle Breakdown last season we questioned whether Turnbull was creative enough outside corners and free kicks, i.e. from open play.

Well, chances created from Open Play have not changed much – down slightly from 2.31 to 2.28 whilst xA from open play passes is unchanged at 0.28.

What HAS improved is his ability to break lines and take opponents out with forward passes – passing ball progression. I measure this using the Packing stats.

This has improved from 6.86 pack passes per 90 to 9.95, a big jump. Some of this difference may be due to playing style from the manager as these numbers are generally up across the squad. But, of course, it has to be effectively implemented.

Where does that leave him within the squad?

Let’s look at xA and Pack Passes combined as an overall view on creative passing.

This view sorts the squad quite nicely.

Bottom left are players with minimal creative impact.

The top left is the more defensive player who get the team forward through the initial blocks, but don’t provide many assists. Carter-Vickers excels here. McGregor’s deeper role is also reflected.

Bottom right is those who operate nearer to goal and therefore have limited Pack passing opportunities but more direct chance assisting passes. You can see how well Abada is doing.

Top right is those providing high levels of both line break passes and chance creating passes.

It is the two full backs (another story about personnel vs system to come!), plus Turnbull! Rogic is nearly in this quadrant.

So, when we talk about “a range of passing” this is what we mean. The ability to break lines from deep midfield as well as the ability to set up direct goal scoring chances. Remember: these are from open play only and therefore his set piece delivery (see above) is discounted from this view.

For Turnbull, this shows he has a special place in the current Celtic squad in terms of the range of passing. Not leading the team in any passing creative category, but overall, adding great value.

Conclusion

Turnbull has shown modest improvement this season, whilst still cementing his place at Celtic and playing under a new manager.

He is likely never going to have the physical attributes to excel in the high pressing box to box midfielder role that it appears Hatate and McGree fulfil.

But what he does bring is a range of passing skills from set AND open play, that are unique in terms of the breadth of that range.

That skill set will be needed to break down those low blocks.