Two Tier Squad

A feature of this season that I believe has had a dramatically positive impact on Celtic team performances is the five-substitute rule.

Initially introduced to allow teams more flexibility through the COVID-19 disruption, the nine-man substitute bench with allowance to chance five from that bench is now embedded in most competitions.

It would also be difficult to unpick given the increasingly stringent protocols around head injuries, and rightly so. And it would be unlikely for the Scottish FA to run contrary to UEFA norms, tempting though it must be in this case.

Celtic, with the biggest and most expensive squad in the country amongst clubs not operating outside of UEFA Financial Sustainability Regulations, are clearly beneficiaries of this. They can bring on players of equal ability late into the game to replace those tiring.

In effect, a whole forward line can be replaced providing fresh impetus.

This particularly suited Ange Postecoglou’s high pressing style. Players, especially the forwards and midfield could be hyper aggressive in the press, knowing that when fatigue kicks in around the hour mark, fresh legs can be introduced.

In effect the rule supported the playing strategy.

What was also a by-product is that some of the data starts to look very odd.

I have covered before the differing attacking metrics and that those predominantly used as substitutes and coming on later in games seem to benefit from a subs dividend of a boost to productive metrics like xG and xA.

I’ll explore that more in terms of what it teaches us about overall performance, but another oddity is the number of 90 minutes worth of football players play, or not.

But let’s consider the percentage of games where players completed 90 minutes:

Essentially, we have a two-tier system.

In the first tier are the goalkeepers, defenders and Callum McGregor.

All being equal they will play 90 minutes most of the time.

Then you have Alexandro Bernabei who, in all respects, is a law unto himself!

And then the attacking midfielders and forwards. They complete 90 minutes less than one game in five. Sead Haksabanovic has appeared in 40 matches and is yet to complete 90 minutes.

I wonder what impact this has on training. How do you train one group for 90 minutes of football and another for 60-70? Are there different conditioning implications? Different injury risks? Different dietary requirements?

Happy if any of you who are experts in this field comment below!

And, most importantly, what about the stats!?

In 315 appearances, Henrik Larsson only failed to complete 90 minutes 29 times. Compare that to Kyogo Furuhashi who virtually never completes 90 minutes. It certainly impacts comparative volume metrics and even per 90 minutes metrics. Kyogo rarely scores cheap late goals in big wins, for example.

I suspect that irrespective of the manager, this trend will continue.