Saturday’s 0-0 draw with Livingston was Celtic’s 9th domestic scoreless game over the last two seasons. Few teams have been as avowedly defensive as Livingston were. Why couldn’t Celtic break them down?
Dominance Without Overwhelming
The numbers show complete control by Celtic.
- 76% possession
- 613 completed passes to 99
- 21 shots to 3
- 15 shots inside the box to 1
- 19 chances created to 1
- 34 possessions in the box to 1
- 268 Total Impect to 60
- 1 Goalkeeping Save to 11 (season high is 13 – Dundee)
- xG 2.543 to 0.103
There are few sports where one team can dominate to that extent and not win. But such is football.
Livingston Single Mindedness
Credit has to go to the visitors for sticking to plan. The three central defenders never moved from their position. They were shielded by five midfielders with Lawless trying to support Menga. In effect it became a five-man defence strung along the box with four in a very low block in front of them.
Livingston suffocated the space where ever possible.
Typical defensive alignment:
Celtic are lethal if given the chance to break at speed. Livingston never allowed this and their three central defenders never left their post. Celtic only bypassed two defenders all game with passes or dribbles. The domestic average is 19 and 2 is by far the lowest of the season. Worryingly, three of the lowest scores have been in the last five matches.
Credit to Kelly too – he made 11 saves although only one of them, from Forrest, was a difficult one.
Celtic gave up possession 66 times in the final third, a season record. This was mainly due to the small gaps between the defensive lines making passing and crossing very difficult. Only Dundee (25, who are hopeless) have given the ball away more times in their own defensive third than Livingston (23). The away side were content to let Celtic have the ball at throw ins knowing they had the personnel to deal with any crosses slung on.
Which brings us to:
Game Management
Lennon’s first change after 63 minutes was to introduce Hayes for Benkovic. Benkovic had been Celtic’ best defender winning all 13 challenges and interceptions he contested. He won back possession 7 times. His DASR% was 100%.
Tierney moved to left centre back and Hayes played wide left.
Hayes’ game is about bursts of pace and then banging the ball into the box. This hasn’t been Celtic’s style of play for many years. Hayes averages 1.02 successful crosses per 90m. This is the highest in the squad but as you can see, successful crosses are quite rare events.
His first 6 attempted passes include 4 crosses that failed to find a Celt. It just isn’t how Celtic break teams down. The one major change in how Celtic play under Lennon is more crosses. Celtic attempted 17 per 90m under Rodgers domestically and 3 were successful.
Under Lennon, attempted crosses have gone up to 24 per 90m, with 4 being successful. It just isn’t a particularly effective way of creating chances, especially as the personnel are not geared up to fight for balls launched into the mixer.
But if you are going to follow that strategy then, yes, Hayes is the best option.
By starting Hayes over Sinclair in the Derby, and having come on as first choice here Lennon seems to be favouring the Irishman over the Englishman. Sinclair has 17 goals and 8 assists. Would Hayes produce similar output?
Hayes creates 2.17 chances per 90m and Sinclair 1.18. Hayes’s xG is 0.08 per 90m whilst Sinclair’s is 0.524. Sinclair is expected to score once every other game but with Hayes it is 1 in 10.
It’s a ballsy call from Lennon.
Secondly, were the changes timeous?
The graph below shows the extent to which Celtic were taking opponents out the game (Packing) at each minute.
It’s a bit subtle on the chart but essentially there is a lull from 40 to 60 minutes where Celtic are decreasingly able to break the opponents down. This was the window to make changes. But none were made until the 63rd minutes and then 71m and 83m.
The team shape did not change. The starting 3-5-1-1 which mirrored Livingstons, was not really deviated from until Burke partnered Edouard late on. Where Rodger’s was usually astute was in configuring the array of attackers effectively.
Lennon is still learning about these players and working out the right alignment.
Individual Player Effectiveness
A number of players are coming off of injury lay off – Tierney, Benkovic, McGregor, Christie, Rogic. The latter, in particular, seems to need significant minutes before getting up to game speed.
Rogic completed only 17 passes and did not create a single chance. He was the only member of the starting 11 not to create a secondary assist.
Slightly further back the omnipresent Christie just happened to have one of his least effective games. Normally robust in the challenge he lost 9 of his 10 challenges and his passing completion of 66% was the lowest in the side. He still created 2 chances but only managed 4 passes that took out opponents. He lost the ball 15 times in the final third, 5 more than any other player.
Two of the most creative talents had off days at the same time.
Having said all of the above, with 21 shots at goal and an Expected Goals of 2.543, Celtic should have won. The old cliché that at least they are creating chances is definitely relevant. Also, you can’t really account for this:
That goes in and much back slapping about another late win ensues. Margins matter.
But Lennon also needs to get to grips with the multi forward configurations Rodgers had since January.
Great analysis. Thanks
Rogic pulled the best 2 saves from Kelly in the first half – what game did u watch?
I agree he did force two saves neither were different. He was peripheral otherwise. I watched the same game as you . Twice.
Difficult I meant!
No problem – technically our best player by a country mile – agree fitness currently required but was confused the player effectiveness summary – Rogic completed only 17 passes and did not create a single chance. He was the only member of the starting 11 not to create a secondary assist.
Great analysis, as usual.
We need a ‘poacher – someone as a foil for Eduard.
When we face this kind of deep-block, we should shoot regularly from outside the box – turn the game into a sort of training session for shooting – with a crowded box there is a good possibility of a beating the keeper, even with a deflection.
I’m afraid modern technique must ‘go out the window’ when playing against such as Livingstone – ‘blood & thunder’ is the answer – forget the plaudits for ‘nice play’, in games such as these, only the result matters.
Great analysis as always, thanks!
Do you think Burke’s best position is as a striker or on the wing? What do the numbers tell us? If anyone would know it would be you!
http://celticbynumberscom.ipage.com/oliver-burke-the-marmite-man/
Check this out and let me know what you think
Very interesting! I like him a lot and think he could be a great player (with some obvious rough edges to be smoothed out.) So if we could sign him for 10 million would you buy him? I would although I suspect i might be in a minority…
Great analysis. Can I add that the Livi tackling and physical presence below the waste was as good as I’ve ever seen. Like Inter Milan in the ‘60s. Their timing was immaculate. If any more of the go to Hearts following Halkett, that’s next season’s runners up, for me.
We served it up to them on a plate, just as we have increasingly done to the likes of Killie, Hamilton, Hibs, Dundee, St Mirren,l together with recent second-halfs against Aberdeen & Sevco over the past eighteen months.
Because we are so profligate with chances, our overwhelming possession and domination is not only ineffective, but it is now becoming boring – no end result – like endless chewing and no swallowing.
We have bred out speculation in our style of play and even our feeble domestic opposition can read and nulify us. Let’s face it, Livingston would be mid-table in the Vanarama.
When players get a good contact and shoot hard from around the 18 to 25 yards mark, most defenders instinctively turn their backs – now that is a start, because by constantly playing on front of them, we never turn them at all.
Most Managers don’t make changes until the 60’ in games.
Not unless it’s s tactical change or a forced change due to injury.
Sinclair is not at his best he hasn’t been for 18 months bar s wee spell mid Season.
Hayes has been under used by Rodgers and when he was used it was seldom in his natural position on the left wing.
I think the return of Leigh a Griffiths will solve many of the issues we currently have up front.
His loss has been significant this Season as has Dembele.
With all the greatest will in the world Édouard is nowhere near the finished article and as for the other two brought in as sticking plasters in their absence (Griffiths and Dembele) both are raw and run around like headless chickens.
This game was dominated,chances were created and enough were on target to win 3 games.
Poor finishing and good goalkeeping kept it to a draw.
Great analysis as per usual.
HH
Voice of reason as always Duncan. I do think people underestimated Sinclair however. And Lennon has (unwittingly) made that point rather well.
Sinclair in my opion was the key factor in Brendan Rodgers transforming Ronny Deilas 4-2-3-1 into a more effective System.
The left side of the Attack had been an issue at Celtic after we lost Samaras and then Stokes out there.
The replacements that followed were substandard in that position.
Sinclairs arrival coincided with a more balanced attack with either Forrest or Roberts complimenting him on the other flank we were now able to stretch defences right across the front 3.
When Sinclair Lost form or was out Brendan reported to playing he likes of McGregor,Ntcham and Édouard out there which never worked as they are not naturally wide men able to take defenders on on the outside.
Hayes is a natural left winger and his natural instinct is to take men on and hit the byline.
The issue is we don’t have a natural No 9 available right now making the right runs to connect with these crosses.
Griffiths would and perhaps this is why Bayo was brought in to do?
Unless we can sort out the men in he box you are spot on regarding putting in crosses as all it ends up becoming is heading practice for defenders or catching practice for Keepers until we do address it.
I don’t we necessarily need to deploy wingers AND wingbacks we could just as easily play 3-5-2 and go with a pairing up front.
Which is after all one of alennons favoured setups.
I would suggest playing Weah as the 9 with Édouard in close support and use Tierney and Forrest as Wingbacks pushed up.
That would also leave 3 in the middle in close proximity and perhaps see a return of Brown- McGregor,Christie today.
Playing Sinclair means that, from an attacking productivity perspective, it is like playing with 2 strikers with the ball and 4-2-3-1 without.