The sponsors and overwhelming fan’s Man of the Match against Livingston was Rogic. Here at Celtic By Numbers, we disagree, but this is not to denigrate an eye-catching performance from the Wizard of Oz. Ntcham was simply remarkable.
Rogic had several moments of magic to lift the crowd. He completed 3 dribbles and was fouled 3 times – both team leading totals. As well as scoring an incredibly rare headed goal (I don’t have a record of another one – his last recorded headed attempt at goal was 25th February 2018 against Aberdeen), Rogic had 4 other shots at goal, 1 on target. He also created 1 chance.
Rogic’s close control and balance are a thing of wonder within the environs of the SPFL. Celtic are lucky indeed to have such a technically gifted player. His ovation on 73 minutes when replaced by Johnston was fitting.
It was though a frustrating game for Rogic, despite the fairy dust on top. 7 times he lost the ball in the final third. Twice he attempted through balls that failed to find their target. And 2 crosses were also unsuccessful. In the end he had completed 28 passes, losing possession with 10.
It was an uncharacteristically robust performance from the Australian. He had 5 successful challenges to 2 lost and won back possession 4 times.
His Expected Scoring Contribution was an excellent 0.935 but this was the third highest on the day. His gasp inducing close control did not result in high quality chance creation.
The performance of Ntcham was consistently high quality from start to finish over the 90 minutes. Here’s why.
Control
Ntcham completed 106 passes, 10 more than Brown. He was accurate with 93% of all his passes attempted. Overall, Ntcham accounted for 15% of all Celtic possessions compared to 6% for Rogic.
Incision
With Ntcham it was possession with purpose. He led the team in creating 6 chances and 4 secondary assists (the pass before the pass that sets up the chance). By comparison Rogic had created 1 chance and 1 secondary assist.
Both Rogic and Ntcham had 11% Pack Passes – that is passes that took out at least 1 opponent. Adding up the opponents bypassed, Ntcham’s Impect Score was 68 compared to 15 by Rogic. Against a very deep lying defence who had 11 men behind the ball it was Ntcham who broke the lines with his passing. 12 times he took out at least one opponent.
Ntcham’s Expected Assist (xA) total was 0.861 compared to 0.053 by Rogic.
Goal Threat
Both players scored, although Ntcham’s was a penalty. But Ntcham led the team with 3 shots on target with Rogic on 2. Because of the penalty Ntcham had an Expected Goals of 1.051 compared to 0.883 for Rogic.
I calculate the CAT score to aggregate goal threat across a number of attacking metrics. Ntcham was second only to McGregor with 12, compared to Rogic’s score of 9.
Ntcham led the team with an Expected Scoring Contribution of 1.913 compared to 0.935 from Rogic. Both excellent returns.
Robust
As noted above, Rogic was, perhaps uncharacteristically robust defensively.
However, Ntcham led the team with a Defensive Action Success Rate (DASR) of 86%. Higher than any defender. Rogic was third best on 71%. As well as 3 clearances, Ntcham won back possession 5 times without losing possession. Rogic was an excellent 4-0. Only Simunovic bettered those values.
Ntcham’s performance was encapsulated in the 90th minute when, losing the bounce of the ball he injured himself executing a tactical foul on the breaking Livingston player to ensure a fast break was halted.
Hopefully he recovers for the AEK Athens tie as Ntcham has become vital to this Celtic side.
Charlie Saiz says
I thought Browns passing first half was poor at times especially when he tried that outside of the boot pass he does now and then?
For me Ntcham started the game a bit off the pace and looked like a player who needed a half a games rest but was flung in anyway.
He certainly improved no end as the game went on and he started moving more freely.
I think it could be just down to so many high energy games so early on into what is effectively pre Season in old money?
Bit more ratation wouldn’t go amiss in midfield that’s for sure this way we can keep the likes of a Ntcham ticking along nicely?
Brendan eluded to this during the week I gather and for me anyway I think it is wise to do so given the amount of critical games to be played in these qualifiers.
The Great God Pan says
This is the top Celtic blog. Erudite, analytical, factual, reasoned and logical.
Everything is backed up by solid argument and statistical analysed.
This blog is my must-read.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Very kind. Thank you.
Mick says
If Celtic are lucky enough to get Ginn the only roll Rodgers could play him is Callum McGregor’s position and ROGERS has always stuck bye him he,d b a none starter until then1 thing is for sure he won’t win anything as long as money is more important than looking back at a empty cabinet with the odd man of the match acolade Mick Murray