Not all shots are equal. We can assess the quality of the shots players take on to see who has the best chance of scoring. And we should learn to love those that take on good quality shots!
Extending the xG concept we can assess the overall quality of the shots each player is taking. The average xG per shot tells us a lot about what shots players take on. I’d advise Ntcham fans to skip the next bit.
The green bars show the total number of shots attempted. The orange line is the xG Average per Shot Attempted. Oddly, apart from McGregor, those taking the most shots (minimum 10 to qualify) are at the top and bottom ends of the xG average scale.
By a distance, Sinclair Dembele and Edouard are taking on higher xG shots than the rest of the squad. Simply, their shots have a much higher chance of being goals. All are attempting shots with an average xG of over 0.170. There is then a drop off to 0.134 for Griffiths, whose high position is frankly surprising.
The role of fortune can also be magnified when you consider McGregor and Forrest outperformed their xG totals despite mediocre xG averages. Sinclair and Dembele are taking on better quality shots but underperformed their xG.
Sinclair and Dembele also, similarly by a distance, created the best quality chances as I showed in Assists and Chances. Here is a reminder:
So, Dembele and Sinclair create the best quality chances and their shots have the best chance of being goals. Both under performed their xG this season as I showed in Edouard – Over Performance or Massive Potential?. I don’t do predictions, but if I was stupid enough to do so, I’d say, if fit, Dembele and Sinclair will be back to their 2016/17 goal tallies next season!
Otherwise our eyes are drawn to the bottom of this particular league.
I’ll forgive Bitton as he is now playing at the back and has had relatively few shots.
But Olivier, fella’, c’mon now just stop it! I’ve banged on all season about Ntcham’s poor shot selection and this is what I’m talking about. Each shot has an average xG of 0.064. This is slightly higher than the xG for a shot outside the box from about 25 yards. But that’s his average. A Ntcham shot has around 65% less chance of scoring than a Dembele shot. All 119 of them!
Ntcham scored 8 free play goals and several benefited from deflections. When commentators say “he’s really useful from distance”, he’s really not. Expect a regression of goals scored next season unless he adjusts his shot selection decisions.
And Rogic. 122 shots with an average xG of 0.089. The big Aussie hits the heights in the big matches and perhaps has earned the right to try the unlikely. But for such a prolific shooter it takes many over optimistic shots to maintain such a low average. Get closer to the goal Tom!
Ntcham (119) and Rogic (122) took the most shots of any Celtic players last season. The both scored 8 goals but only half of them (4 each) were from outside the box. So many bad shots!
Finally, Armstrong scored 7 goals from outside the box last season. In SPFL matches he scored 15 goals with a total xG of 8.276. Last season he massively over performed from long range. Not sustainable. His regression to the mean has been more of a crash than a gentle reversion. He clearly believes, based on last season, that his long-range shooting is exceptional and has taken 66% of his shots from outside the box. Last season 61% of his shots were outside the box. Armstrong’s season has been fragmented and injury hit. Confidence and rhythm are undoubtedly important. But if he has finished his Law Exams I would recommend Stuart take a quick course on the laws of xG!
Summary
Dembele and Sinclair head two important metrics – quality of chance creation and quality of shot selection. Over the long term they will achieve assists and goals commensurate with that. Over a season, even 61 games, it is too small a sample to fit perfectly to the mean and both have scored less than their xG numbers would suggest. Get your money on big numbers from this pair next season (not really – put your money in a pension fund or spend it on ice cream).
Ntcham, Rogic and Armstrong are all capable of scoring spectacular and game breaking goals from distance. It’s a key attribute but their xG average per shot numbers suggest more circumspection when considering when to shoot from distance.