By James Dailey
Much angst and disgust were expressed in the dying moments of the transfer window on Friday. Part of being a supporter is “enjoying” the raw swings in emotion. I wish I had a nickel for every time my Twitter feed included a post declaring how the board was amid betraying the support and being negligent in the chase for 9 in a row. Heck, I even joined in and agreed with Alan’s excellent analogy and recap posted Saturday. Perhaps the epicenter of this manic episode was the idea that at least one centre half addition was a dire need. Lennon had stated he believed we are well covered at the position, and I generally agreed then, and still do. This will be the first of two pieces examining our situation and quality at centre half.
My view relies upon a very important “if,” which is certainly fair game for criticism: if we can have at least 2 out of Bitton, Elhamed, and Jozo remain fit. Bitton and Elhamed have been recovering from soft tissue injuries which should be manageable and preventable if our sports science staff is competent, while Jozo’s knee should also be manageable if he is not over-worked. This will be the first of two pieces examining our situation and quality at centre half.
All Together Now!
Nir Bitton is a centre half….say it with me (nope – Ed)! He has played almost exclusively at centre half since the 2017/2018 season, with an aggregate in minutes the equivalent of about forty games. His main issue has been that of injury rather than positional instability. The fact is, Bitton was an excellent defensive midfielder at his peak in 2015/2016. The following data compares Bitton that season with the same vintage of some guy named Fernandinho, and then the player of the year version of Scott Brown in 2017/2018. Now, I am obviously not suggesting that playing in the SPFL is the same as the EPL, but relative domestic performance is noteworthy, in my opinion.
Why have I selected Fernandinho as a comp for Bitton? It just so happens that Mr. Fernandinho has made the transition to centre half for Manchester City this season. In the following table, I’ve compared the aggregate of Bitton’s time at centre half over the past three seasons with this year’s versions of Jullien, Ajer, and Fernandinho.
A quick review of terms – Key Passes are the pass that set up a shot, and Establishing Pass is the pass that sets up the Key Pass. The xPassing Score compares the actual pass completion % vs the expected completion % for the player. The data for Pass Success % and above is via Wyscout, while below that is courtesy of Ortec via Modern Fitba.
If You Can’t Be with the One You Love, Love the One You’re With
If we compare Bitton’s stats over the past three seasons with Jullien and Ajer, they look to be relatively comparable. He loses the ball a little less than either, is a little less effective at winning defensive duels, is comparable to Ajer in the air, and is the best and most creative passer. Is he ideal as part of a starting centre half pair in a back four in Europe or in the upcoming Glasgow Derbies? I would argue no. However, I think he is a very good fit as the right-sided centre half in a back three in those kinds of matches, and good enough in a back four for domestic games versus bottom six opponents.
Conclusion
If one goes back to re-watch the last 25 minutes of the December 29th game, the passing and movement between Ntcham, Frimpong and Bitton on the right side was excellent after Lennon finally switched to a 3-5-2: it really changed the dynamic of the game. With reports that Bitton’s recent muscle pull was not severe, I believe he should resume that position if/when Lennon deploys three at the back.
Bitton IS a centre half, and a pretty good one if used correctly. He is in pretty good company as a converted defensive midfielder!
Rolling Stone says
James,
Another interesting article.
One point, does this data not also suggest that Jullien is better with his feet/a more cultured CB than Ajer? The narrative that accompanies Ajer is that he is better on the ball and can bring it out of defence; a desired trait amongst CBs, and particulary those within our budget. Anecdotally, this seems true, as I can recall his mazy runs out of defence that have led to chances. This perceived quality is also weighted against his weaker defensive abilities (in the air/his lack of physicality) and is deemed an acceptable trade off.
However, as often happens after reading your articles, the stats don’t appear to necessarily back the prevailing narrative up (unless I’m misinterpreting them!). With all the stats to hand, what would be your preferred 2 CBs in a back 4 or 3CBs in a 3-5-2 (injury history aside)?
Rolling Stone says
*back up the prevailing narrative
James Dailey says
Thank you for reading and commenting. I had similar thoughts/questions while looking at the data and writing this piece, which is mostly why I’ll be doing a followup looking at your overall centre half situation!
I am not doctrinaire as to how managers play their teams – I believe they should have the players to play their preferred system, or play a system that optimizes the players they have. As I laid out in my prior piece “The Real Return to Lennyball,” I argued that pre-winter break was out of character for Lennon given his history. Ajer’s dribbling and ability to break lines by progressing the ball via dribble is his one real standout quality. His passing is actually pretty mediocre and he is terribly one footed. This is partly why I think Bitton is a great fit as on the opposite side, as his passing is excellent and combined with Jullien, offers the ability to break lines (Pack Passes as Alan so adeptly reports). We saw this yesterday, as Jullien was able to link up with McGregor who was playing as an advanced/attacking 8, and progressed the ball 30-40 yards rapidly into the dangerous left half space.
I will lay out a more comprehensive analysis with accompanying data in the next piece.
Rolling Stone says
I look forward to reading part 2 of your analysis.
Given the success of the 3-5-2 (I can’t see us reverting to 4-2-3-1, even in Europe, unless enforced by injuries) we need to have 3 quality CBs on the books and a couple of able (emphasis on able) deputies.
I think only one player fits the bill at present- Jullien. He is a big game player and has contributed in a meaningful way at the opposite end of the pitch as well. Unsurprisingly, he is our second most expensive signing.
Despite the protestation of some Celtic fans that spending money may endanger the club’s longevity, there is clear prima facie evidence that a higher transfer fee equates to greater quality. Eddy, Jullien, Ntcham and Sinclair all over £3m and all with substantial contributions to date; only Boli appears to be money wasted. Kouassi was just unlucky with injuries and illness.
I would devote a large sum of money for at least one other CB this summer and try and move on Jozo (if possible); his inability to play more than 30 games in a 60 game season means he cannot be relied upon, irrespective of his qualities.
Jim says
I agree James, Nir Bitton can also play a CB role, if my memory serves me well I’m sure BR used him in that position when we managed to qualify for the CL Group Stages in BR first Season. So Nir Bitton, can do a job in that role. As for the present day Transfer Auction Market. lets face it which it is, especially nowadays, where the said Market goes into a bidding auction , when Celtic are supposed to be interested in certain players , which is annoying to say the least when you consider when Sevco or infact any other Scottish Club
goes for a player their is no other interest if I was Celtic I would not inform the Bias Media of any of our Transfer Interest because the bias media are always trying to sabotage any of our transfer dealings so as far as said bias media are concerned it should be that’s non-disclosure information no can do end of inquiry as far as the bias media are concerned. As for modern day players & wages for example according to the bias media we were allegedly looking @ bringing back Benkovic from Leicester City FC for the remainder of this Season however I knew that rumour would not prevail when I heard Bristol City FC who can afford to pay players 70K+ per week wage packet those wage packets are out of our financial league however & that being the case we need to look further afield as regards to bringing new faces/players in & also getting rid of the dead wood in our squad in other words players who don’t have a chance of getting into our first team in my opinion I would say we need to prioritise strengthening our Defence that is a no brainer we also have plenty of midfieldeers & forward players to do the job & @ our disposal it’s in defence where we need to strengthening after we have addressed this on-going issue then we can move Johnny Hayes further up the park after all Johnny Hayes is a forward player not a natural defender although he can be used in emergency cover @ the back (defence) JH is a natural forward player his cross for our second goal yesterday proves the point I’m making about Johnny Hayes
being a natural forward player so strengthening our defence is & should be our top priority & our Club
Celtic should be doing sensible & thorough research to bring in the necessary new additions in defence & the same logic should apply in all other team positions as well referring to the words sensible & thorough research when looking to acquire players we need to box clever or as the cliche suggests fools & money are easly parted Hail ! Hail ! All & Go On The Bhoys Get It In There Laters 🙂 🙂
George says
Absolutely love these articles. The stats never lie. Bitton is a CB now and has done a good job. Elhamed is also there for cover, so we’re good.
Duncan says
Converting DMF players to CB is not a new phenomenon at Celtic.
Lennon did the same with Wanyama.
It is actually a good idea if you are considering gong with a back 3 as a Defensive Midfielder does generally have the right skill set to adapt.
He’s tactically aware to the dangers coming,generally has good technical ability,is a solid passer and is used to tackling.
Ideally though you would have a converted Fullback as either one of the Right or Left side CB’s as was the case with Mulgrew,Lustig and now Elhamed.
Ideally because of course they are already fully aware of the Fullback role and are more alert to the dangers of a wingback being further up the Park.
Lennon likes his CB’s to launch attacks from deep so having a CB who is already comfortable both in possession and going forward as a DMF is I think a real positive.
Ajer and Bitton would both fall into this category of CB.
Bitton has become a very useful part of the squad as a result of his being able to cope both in the middle and at the back.
I doubt he would have had his contract extended had he just been employed as a Defensive Mid.
I think so long as you have 1 dedicated CB in a back 4 or 3 then you can have one/two converted CB’s alongside and make it work to your advantage.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Searchable on the site is the evidence Bitton is unfit for the position in games against decent opponents. In the majority of SPFL games he is an asset for the reasons you mention.playing him there was successful at Ibrox because Celtic played compact and protected him.
Duncan says
I’ve watched Jullien make as many mistakes in the last 4 games than Bitton has made in his last 10 as a CB Allan.
Whilst I don’t think he’s a first pick at CB he is certainly capable enough to do a solid if not spectacular job in this role.
If a 20 year old can drop in like Welsh did in the last game on his debut and arguably be the best CB in the first 45 minutes then I think Bitton can drop in there when required and do a job.
One solid CB flanked by two DMF/CB should allow us to dominate most if not all sides in the SPFL whilst retaining a solid defence capable of handling 2 attackers.
However if fit I would prefer Elhamed ahead of Bitton on the right side of a 3 if it came to it.
Bottom line is our defending of late has been average to poor at times and the main culprit has been our Marquee Signing Jullien.
His inability to match the run by the Goalscorer at Hamilton put us under pressure for a spell.
I look at Bitton and Hayes as our Utility men in the squad as both have enough about them to come in and do a job as and when required but necessarily viewed as first choice picks.
All squads need these types as we do play a lot of games in a Season.
Much has been made of the window but I am of the opinion we do have enough cover at CB and besides getting quality ones in mid Season is seldom as easy as some might think.
Scottish Football is a hard sell to players who are no doubt at that level wanting a higher profile League and or big wages to match.
We have a very good youth setup and as young Welsh proved we have players capable of coming in and doing a decent job if and when given the opportunity.
We also have a Manager who is inclined to give them that opportunity when it presents itself.
aldo67 says
Agree with all that Duncan, I’d just like to add in Jullien’s defense, he’s got 6 goals, and a few of them have been pretty important.
I was hoping for a nice deadline day signing as much as the next man, but it’s cool, we shouldn’t just buy players to cover every eventuality. There should be a bit of room for the young bhoys to get a chance.
Plus, we spent 5m, that’s what? probably 10 times more than the rest of scottish football combined. Not overly shabby.
James Dailey says
I think Alan and I largely agree but I am probably more optimistic with Bitton at CB on two fronts.
First, I think his relative weaknesses and strengths ( and he has clear and significant strengths) are significantly better suited as the RCB in a back three, where as the relative calibration of them turns more negative as part of a back four.
Second, I think Bitton is an incredibly talented and intelligent footballer, and is likely to get better at reducing his errors and getting better positionally as he plays more.
My optimism is largely and admittedly a forecast, as Bitton has not played much as a RCB in a back three. I just believe his skill set is well suited already to be a good one, and that he is likely to get better.
Jim says
I’ve heard through a reliable source in other words the Horses mouth that Spurs FC wanted to
sell Wanyama for 1.5 Million to Us however Wanyama’s Knee Caps are cream crackered &
Lenny said “Not Interested” damn tooting Lenny you are one of Us who has our Club @ Heart
So the Wanyama rumour is now gone I’ve also heard a silly rumour going around by the Scottish
Media that Southampton FC want 25 Million for their 4th Choice Goalkeeper I dream on
Southampton FC So it looks like we will need to look an additional Number One Goalkeeper
Cause Craig Gordon & Scott Bain are not the Answer we should start doing our research “Now”
ASAP as regards to strengthening our Goalkeeper & Defence options
Jim says
& To Also Add Mr Wanyama was also looking for a 75K a week Wage Packet like
your old Club Victor, like Southampton FC sorry bud & good luck with that &
Good fortune with the future
Jim says
Searchable on the site is the evidence Bitton is unfit for the position in games against decent opponents. In the majority of SPFL games he is an asset for the reasons you mention.playing him there was successful at Ibrox because Celtic played compact and protected him.
Yeah Nir Bitton can cover @ the back against all scottish teams however against some European
Teams he is found out fair comment as for matches against Sevco as I’ve mentioned before the last two
matches against Sevco it’s obvious that our 4-2-3-1 tactics does not match up to their 4-3-3 tactics
however & I would imagine 3-5-2 would match up to their tactics & gain us a positive outcome.
I’ve just heard those cheats @ the SFA are @ it again we have just came through dodgy BS & Bias
Christie Gate & now we are hearing those dodgy cheats @ FTSFA are now coming out with BS &
Bias Griffis Gate this is becoming really ridiculous & cheating as well to try & stop us from winning
the League Celtic should stand up to those cheats the facts are plain for everyone to see LG’s Leg
was pulled onto the so called alleged Hamilton cheat who is telling lies as regards to LG stamping
on him & then you have the other Hamilton player pushing LG in the back before Leigh pushed him
back Leigh was booked for that in said match @ the weekend Hamilton v Celtic 2/2/2020 that
match & matter is now over this should not be debated if the outcome by those cheats @ the FTSFA
suspend Leigh then Celtic should apeal against it.
aldo67 says
In regards Christie, he did have a little rummage, like he’d found a snickers in a supposedly empty tesco bag.
I don’t think any action is being taken against Leigh.
It’s clear when you see all the angles that there was no malice.
And to be fair to the ‘pundits’ who called red, from one angle it does look like a stamp, from other angles you can see the opponent appear to grab leighs boot, and leigh pointing his toes down (trying to avoid a stamp).
Obviously upon reviewing all the footage, said ‘pundits’ will admit to their error next time they’re on the telly and send Leigh a nice bouquet of flowers.
Jim says
aldo67 says:-
In regards Christie, he did have a little rummage, like he’d found a snickers in a supposedly empty tesco
It’s clear when you see all the angles, that there was no malice intended or made.
bag. I don’t think any action is being taken against Leigh.
It’s clear when you see all the angles that there was no malice.
And to be fair to the ‘pundits’ who called red, from one angle it does look like a stamp, from other angles you can see the opponent appear to grab leighs boot, and leigh pointing his toes down (trying to avoid a stamp).
Obviously upon reviewing all the footage, said ‘pundits’ will admit to their error next time they’re on the telly and send Leigh a nice bouquet of flowers.
Aye as regards to Obviously upon reviewing all the footage, said ‘pundits’ will admit to their error next time they’re on the telly and send Leigh a nice bouquet of flowers. No chance, they will probably not mention it @ the next Celtic match they are covering or if so their certainly will not be any apology &
as for a Bouquet of Flowers you are kidding while we are on the subject of negative remarks aimed @
Celtic if not the Club it’s now the Players what Kris Boyd said about Leigh was shocking & uncalled for
even Chris Commons has stated this matter on a review on CQN did Kris Boyd apologise for his remark
about Leigh Griffiths ? No. The media seam to have an anti-negative agenda against Celtic FC which needs to be addressed that is for sure.