Continuing to play around with radars and this time let’s look at Kyogo Furuhashi. Last season 34 goals in all competitions and this season 15 with hopefully 10 games left. The main metric used to evaluate Kyogo as we all know, however, is the expected smile prevalence (xSP). Less than sunny has been the average … [continue reading]
Method
Big Unit, Ball Master, or Both?
I wrote extensively on Liam Scales in the Celtic Way last week. They have an incredible offer of only £1 a month for six months. The other writers are really strong, so I recommend it. It is always a challenge to come up with a compelling view that might tell a story that accurately reflects … [continue reading]
Joe Hart
There are Celtic “fan” sites that lure you in with clickbait and sensationalist headlines, and there are those that simply regurgitate what others have produced, either the mainstream media or less forgivably, other Celtic fan sites. I hope you realise I am never the latter and on a certain cheeky level, only occasionally the former. … [continue reading]
Graham Spiers’ Podcast
I appeared on Graham Spiers’ Press Box podcast this past week to discuss “Do Scottish refs favour Rangers”. If podcasts had open goals…………whits the goaly daen’? Anyway, I was given the space to run through at a very high level some results from various pieces of analysis by myself and others, which, when taken together, … [continue reading]
Why Rodgers’ Approach Is Right In Europe
With the European campaign effectively over for another season, the recriminations have begun. Everyone has got it in the neck from someone. To my observation, you select the party you like the least and heap the blame on them. Cognitive Dissonance rules ok? As mentioned on this week’s Huddle Breakdown, I’d like to call out … [continue reading]
Potter and xG Philosophy
90% of data analysis is cribbing good ideas from others, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise! In that spirit! This tweet from @eduinlatimer caught my eye this morning not just for the excellent topic and analysis but for the reaction amongst other data analysts. Ostensibly it is noting a potential trend whereby Graham Potter … [continue reading]
O’Riley Does It Again
An aspect of packing I had not captured until this season concerns turnovers and recoveries. “What does all that jargon mean?” comes the plaintive cry. Let me unpack it. (Lol – I’m here all week.) Definitions Packing is the count and assignment of a value to score the taking out of opposition players with forward … [continue reading]
The Power of Recovery
When I started Celtic By Numbers the data I collected was very basic. Mainly defensive actions and passing and shot data but no xG. It has developed over the years as you learn more techniques and best practise. Now I rarely add “new” data points a) because it’s a real pain to do and b) … [continue reading]
Assessing Impact of Honest Mistakes
I would like to introduce a framework for assessing the impact of “Honest Mistakes”. These are game changing decisions that officials get wrong because they are, errr, human (!). For example, wrong decisions on goals scored / disallowed, players sent off / not sent off. The need for such a framework is, hopefully, obvious. If … [continue reading]
Ralston, Taylor and Remembering Why Celtic By Numbers Started
In the aftermath of the AZ Alkmaar first leg, Celtic’s home-grown full back, Ralston, continued his “local underdog comes good” narrative arc with a performance that included some notable interventions. Bad Habits On The Huddle Breakdown last week, recorded after the AZ game, (follow the link to listen, and please subscribe to the channel – … [continue reading]