The one tactical nuance introduced by Lennon has been a greater emphasis on crossing balls from the flanks into the box. On average, Celtic attempted 15.8 crosses per match under Rodgers and this is now 24 under Lennon.
Lennon has seemed visibly frustrated at some of the build up play from Celtic. Under Rodgers they were a team build for passing football, waiting for moments to play in through balls or quick connections to open up deep and low block defences. Lennon thinks that getting the ball into the box more quickly and directly will lead to defences being broken down. Is he right?
There are a number of studies you can read online. Here is a selection, with highlights.
Frankfurt School of Finance and Management Study (2013)
This paper presented at the Harvard University New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports (NESSIS) can be found here.
- “crossing from an open play is hugely inefficient, only 1 open cross out of 91.92 leads to a goal on average.”
- “stronger teams miss more goal opportunities in general when crossing than weaker teams.”
- “Stronger teams have more options how to score and open play crossing seems as one of the suboptimal ways of a goal creation.”
- “Strong observational bias on TV highlights that show mostly good crosses and crosses leading to goals.”
- “The impact of crossing on goals is negative for most of the teams, it is neutral at best.”
- “Stronger attacking teams tend to have a more negative impact on scoring than weaker teams ….. This is due to the fact that aerial delivery of the ball has less precision and thus more luck than skill is involved. Stronger teams benefit more from situations that depend on skill in contrast to situations that depend on luck.”
Spielverlagerung (2015)
The respected football analysis site published An Ineffective Tool? in 2015.
- “However, after years of statistically analysing football, it should be common sense that knocking the ball into the box is not the most effective way of using ball possession in the opposing half.”
- “Crossing is seen as a counter to the opposition parking the bus – a cornerstone of English football thinking.”
- “And remember, every inaccurate cross means the team loses the ball, even if it hurtles through the six yard box”
- “Only 13 percent of all Bundesliga goals stemmed directly from a cross, while the average Bundesliga team needed 80.24 crosses for scoring a single goal. A Premier League side needed 67.46.”
- “Overall, teams in big four leagues required 71.97 open crosses per goal on average.”
- “There is no distinct correlation between the percentage of shots taken in the penalty area and the number of open crosses.”
FourFourTwo (2016)
The well-known football magazine FourFourTwo produced the article What’s the point of crossing? Why getting it in the mixer might be counter-productive in 2016.
- “And near the top of the puzzlers pile: how everyone came to the conclusion that the easiest way to score is by plonking the ball onto the head of a striker from 50 yards away, so that he can generate the power and direction to deflect a pass he might not receive towards a goal he isn’t facing.”
- “Of those 92 balls lobbed, chipped or blasted into the penalty area, 73 don’t find a team-mate, so four out of five centres instantly hand over possession to the other team.”
- “ Without a plan, deliveries from wide areas amount to hoping for the best with no reason to be hopeful. It’s buying a ticket to a lottery that doesn’t exist. Defenders aren’t worried.”
- “Sunday, February 9, 2014 was a bad PR day for crossing. Manchester United made 82 arguments for it while supporters looked on, mouths agape, as each centre was cleared and bottom-of-the-table visitors Fulham earned a 2-2 draw. “I hadn’t headed that many balls since the Conference,” reflected Fulham’s 6ft 7in centre-back, the aptly named Dan Burn. It was the nadir of David Moyes’ 10-month tenure at Old Trafford, and he took crossing’s reputation down with him.”
(Note that Moyes was in the stand on Sunday and Celtic are potentially looking for a new manager. Just saying. )
- “Crossing makes luck a factor, levelling the playing field when you’re the better team.”
- “As one put it: “[Passing] is more deadly, if less spectacular, than the senseless policy of running along the lines and centring just in front of the goalmouth, where the odds are nine to one on the defenders.” Who said it? Herbert Chapman, 90 years ago. Maybe football isn’t so quick to learn after all.”
American Soccer Analysis
The excellent US football analytics site describes the impact of crossing on their Expected Goals model:
“Passing
In addition to the typical patterns of play (like set pieces or the regular run of play), we now indicate whether the shot was assisted, and if so, whether it was via cross, through ball, or neither. Crosses detract from the shot’s likelihood to go in, while through balls increase a shot’s likelihood of going in. Teams getting a lot of chances off crosses must win the quantity battle, because they won’t likely win the quality battle.”
Crossing is something weaker teams do to level the playing field. Better teams have more options to break teams down than chancing to luck, which levels the playing field against a weaker opponent. Celtic are overwhelmingly the dominant team domestically.
Flexi-Forward
The other “innovation” Lennon has introduced is to stop the flexi-forward (thank ETims for that label) approach Rodgers had implemented since the end of January. This involved a rotation of Edouard, Burke, Weah, Forrest, Sinclair across the forward positions. Trying different configurations to keep the defences guessing and altering the pace and style of the attack. Celtic scored 2.36 goals per game from January to Rodger’s leaving. They are averaging 1.3 under Lennon.
The points are related. Introducing Hayes who banged in 7 unsuccessful crosses in the first half away to Hibernian, and lost possession 9 times in the final 3rd, is not as an effective solution to breaking down stubborn defences as rotating the aforementioned fast, skilful talent.
Yes, I know Celtic scored on Saturday against Kilmarnock from a cross. But if you have the same chance as a header than a shot with feet, you are approximately 100% less likely to score with a headed effort according to the Expected Goals model I use.
Celtic will continue to, at best, grind their way to the end of the season. If Lennon is true to his word that he doesn’t want to change anything, he needs to reign in the aimless mixer balls and unleash the array of attacking talent available.
Charlie Saiz says
Celtic won the 2013 League Cup Final due to two first half headers from Gary Hooper with Anthony Stokes with both Assists.
There is a place for good crossing and good finishing.
THis boils down to finishing or in our case for most of this Season the lack of quality in front of goal and spurned clear cut chances.
We created 27 on Saturday only 6 were on target and of those only 2 troubled the goalkeeper.
I keep hearing this argument “post December we were banging them in” yes we were against the easier sides and for 9 games.
Our worst start to a League Campaign in 20 years and we were level on points with a mediocre Rangers after the Ibrox disaster bud.
Two purple patches in the entire Season abut the rest of the games pure mediocre at best under Rodgers.
Lennon has steadied the ship and kept the momentum going after the Captain of the Ship bailed and left our players high and dry with 12 to go.
Sinclair has been poor on and off for 18 months.
Édouard is miles off being the finished article
Burke is a headless chicken not worth a 5th of the fee his Club paid
Weah is as raw as they come and after a brief cameo of a couple of games both are now showing why it is they got minimal game time elsewhere.
Teams are coming to Celtic Park to defend in numbers and because of the fact we have stuck with the same Formation and tactics for so long the better sides had worked us out.
Lennon has two objectives as far as I can see.
1 win the League
2 try win the Cup
Well we are 1 point away from doing the first and 90 minutes away from hopefully completing the second.
We need Griffiths back and for our key men to start performing at their best again before we can start demanding silky Football Alan.
Graeme says
Hi Allan
Moyes was also at the St. Mirren game later.
Expect to see him as Scotland manager?
Your latest article proves why Lennon should not be the next manager.
I wonder if Rodgers took the football analytics team with him to Leicester?
What do you think of the ‘special one’ being Celtic manager?
Rabbhoy says
Edouad is not good enough to lead the line for Celtic. A better option is needed
Duncan says
I agree Rab he’d be better suited in the Supporting role in a pairing than leading the line which in my opinion he’s not cut out for YET.
I would like to see him and Griffiths played together in the closing games and pre Season see if we can’t get a decent partnership going there.
I do t think Rodgers gave Griffiths a fare crack at it as he picked his projects before the 40 goal in a Season proven finisher.
Bring in a reputable Target man for playing against a packed defence meanwhile.
Duncan says
Interesting reading the comments to this thread on your Twitter feed.
As has been proved most excellently in the past two games since this article was produced Crossing the ball is a very effective way of scoring goals provided two main factors are involved:
1 The person crossing the ball does so with accuracy
2 The intended recipient is technically proficient enough to get his header/shot on target
Some of the finest goals we have scored have come from quality cross balls.
The two I mentioned above in the Cup Final would fall into that category as would Griffiths v Sevco in the Cup and that superb header by Griffiths from Tierneys pass a few Seasons ago under Deila.
Then there’s the Larson flying headers for Celtic and Sweden.
There is a place for it in the game as we have proven this Season sometimes trying to walk it into the net up against packed defences can get you absolutely nowhere at times.
I guess what I am trying to say is you have to mix it up in order to keep it fresh whilst ultimately broadening your scope for attacks.
Quality of delivery is key as if being proficient at putting ANY chance away regardless of how it arrives.
Lennon is not a one trick pony.
Our attack under him previously with the likes of Hooper,Stokes,Commons,Samaras etc proves this.
As did some of the scorelines under him at this time.
2011-12
9-0 Aberdeen
6-0 Kilmarnock
5-0 Hearts
5-0 Hibernian
2012-13
6-2 Dundee Utd
5-0 StJohnstone
5-0 Dundee
2013-14
5-2 Kilmarnock
5-0 Motherwell
5-0 ICT
5-1 Partick Th
6-0 ICT
5-2 Aberdeen
7-0 Hearts
A pragmatic approach to problem solving can be just as rewarding as a blinkered single approach as seen under Deila and Rodgers for the most part.
It is this inflexible approach that has seen us become less potent as time has gone on.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Yes I’d always agree that sometimes you need to mix the approach – Lustig’s long passes to Dembele another good example.
But if you rely on crossing as a primary strategy you are doomed to fail im afraid. If you consider that a header is about half as likely to result in a goal than a shot, then that should crystallise. We all remember the great headed goals and fail to recall the 1000 attempted crosses that resulted in nothing that preceded.
Duncan says
You should only ever cross the ball in if there are several key factors in place
1 There is a definite target to hit
2 That target is in a position to score
Aimlessly slinging the ball in to no runners is akin to catching or heading practice for the defence or keeper.
I am fairly certain that Neil Lennon is NOT asking his wide men to simply sling a cross into an empty space or box?
The issue we have had is simple.
The quality delivery simply hasn’t been there for the bulk of this Season and neither has the quality in the box we need to finish these moves off.
The loss of Griffiths and Dembele in this regard has been huge as has the loss of form from Tierney this Season.
Both Griffiths and Tierney produce excellent delivery most of the time but unfortunately Édouard is not making the correct runs into the box he seems to favour hanging back for either a cut back or a second ball.
Then we have had the issue with the CB’s squandering numerous chances most weeks with their inability to keep a header on target from corners or set pieces.
Ajer for me has been a let down in this regard because he has previously operated as a Striker and really should be hitting the rather large target that is the goal frame more often than he is.
Jozo is now proving he has this in his locker and had it not been for Marciano the last time we played Hibs he would have had 3 converted headers on the bounce.
If you think back to O’Neills Celtic we had an aerial threat coming from numerous players.
We also had a Striker who was a master at the headed goal in Larsson as well as Sutton Balde Mjalby Varga Valgaaren Hartson etc.
The delivery is always key and it is having players who know when to cross and when to pass it is crucial to making the most of an attack.
It’s not really something you can teach it’s more a natural ability to see the picture and make a quick decision on what to do.
I look at the quality of the finishing especially this Season and the decision making on shots has been of s mediocre standard for me.
We simply haven’t been making the keepers work hard enough when the chances have dropped.
I think had Griffiths remained fit and played these months he’s been out the results would have been much improved.
To dismiss crossing though as ineffective or a pointless exercise is in my mind wrong.
Hence why I will put an argument up for it when I see this.
Like everything else in Football if there is quality behind it then generally it will pay off.
As it has done in the last two games.
Quite wonderfully.
Always a pleasure debating these points all the same Alan.
HH
Duncan says
Go check out Wijnaldums second from the wonderful Liverpool victory tonight against Barca.
If I could have chosen a goal to illustrate exactly what I have been saying it would be that goal.
Quality Cross > Quality Header =Quality Goal
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Will we repeat this every time someone scores from a cross in football????
Against such an appalling defence any cross was probably a good decision.
Duncan says
I think you are doing both Shaquiri and Wijnaldum a disservice there Alan defending against quality delivery and execution would have been difficult for most defences last night.
Quality is the key element as always in Football.
To dismiss crossing as means of achieving your aim is a nonsense in my mind.
We had become too set in our ways under both Deila and Rodgers as there was little variation in our approach and whilst we have remained dominant in Domestic Football is has come at a cost in Europe.
Brendan spoke of variation in our approach not long before he left as it had become apparent we were becoming far too predictable as a side.
That never transpired unfortunately but now we have a Manager who is far more pragmatic in his approach to problem solving I think it bodes better for us on the bigger stage.
As it did previously.
Having the right personnel obviously helps in this regard.
We do need a proper Target man I feel to compliment those already at the Club.
That way we can alter the approach to suit the opposition.
Or to simplify we can mix it up when needs be.
Long ,short,pace,direct through the middle or using width all bases are covered.
This gives you flexibility in approach and Systems.
Rodgers hasn’t deviated that far from Deilas rigid 4-2-3-1 all he did was alter aspects within it and seldom did he deviate from using it.
As a result teams worked out how to counter it.
Lennon doesn’t adhere to the one size fits all mantra he’s more inclined to alter between 3 or 4 different Systems.
I promise I won’t highlight anymore quality goals from crosses bud.
I will just enjoy them as a I have done for many,many years and of course advocate the use of this tactic.
For it as with all others should rightly have its place in Football.
Regardless of what the stats may say.
HH
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Your posts deserves a proper response. I have it on queue to look at other research on crossing so you will get the response your time and effort deserves.
Duncan says
I shall look forward to it as always Alan.
HH
Ps
Tell all the Huns you know that they never stopped 8 in a row.