The Celtic right back problem was addressed after Lustig’s leaving with the purchases of Elhamed and Frimpong, and the loan acquisition of Bauer.
Elhamed is the senior right back at the club and despite various injury interruptions has racked up more than the 900 minutes I use as minimum sample size.
So, let’s compare Elhamed to Lustig’s final season.
Defensive Metrics
The primary defensive metrics I calculate are Defensive Action Success Rate (DASR). This is a % showing the ratio of defensive actions that were successful. Also, Possession Won / Lost assesses whether defensive actions resulted in Celtic retaining possession or not. Neither include passing.
Here are the numbers comparing Lustig (18/19) and Elhamed (19/20):
Lustig scores higher on both measures by quite some distance. The numbers for Elhamed are even more worrisome given he has played centre back in at least part of half his appearances. Centre backs will generate higher numbers by these metrics than full backs.
Remember as well that this is so-called “declining” Lustig. In fact, he was still the best right back at the club and I suggested at the end of the season he would be difficult to replace.
If we dig into the numbers a bit more and look into the number of defensive challenges and possessions won and lost:
We see that Elhamed is involved in many more challenges. He his clearly a faster player than Lustig, and his style of play is more “front foot” as one might expect from Lennon’s remodelled Celtic.
But sometimes more is less. The overall win ratios are less than Lustig as we have seen. He was a vastly experienced international player. Part of a consistently successful Swedish national team who quality for major tournaments.
Finally, let’s look at fouls committed and defensive errors.
More is once again less. Elhamed commits more fouls than Lustig, not surprising given the greater number of engagements. And he also has a higher defensive error rate. My personal threshold for defensive errors is 0.5 and Elhamed is breaching that (0.55). He was culpable for one of the Cluj goals in the 3-4 debacle which was probably the low point.
The Swede’s data suggests a more circumspect player, less prone to engaging with the opposition, but choosing his moments more wisely.
Creativity
As mentioned many times a Celtic full back is integral to attacking patterns.
Elhamed has undoubtedly got the speed Lustig probably never had. The Israeli has had some thrilling ball progressions, something Lustig rarely attempted.
And he is creating more chances that Lustig in his final season – 1.38 per 90 compared to 1.26.
Their expected assists (xA) rates are almost identical indicating the quality of the chances being made.
Whilst Elhamed offers threat running with the ball, Lustig became one of Celtic’s most reliable long passers from the back. We can assess this by looking at Passing Impect – an indicator of the extent forward passes took opponents out the game.
There is no contest here. Lustig has a 40% better Passing Impect rate. Despite not getting into the final third as much as the more mobile Israeli, Lustig was more effective at getting Celtic up the park and behind opposition players.
As an aside and apropos Lennon’s style versus Rodgers. Lustig averaged 70.25 completed passes in his final season. Elhamed averages 45.83.
Summary
The mood music from the support is that we like Elhamed. He is exciting to watch. He reflects Lennon’s style of being more aggressive and proactive. His runs up the wing have added excitement.
Lustig was a steadier, less spectacular player. I think he will forever be under estimated and continue to be difficult to fully replace.
Elhamed has some way to go to be as effective as a 32-year-old declining Lustig. Also, we used to worry about Lustig’s fitness record. Elhamed is injured again – the 3rd different injury since joining and will miss another 4-6 weeks.
Now Frimpong is another article entirely. But I need more data!
Marie McEwan says
A number of things I remember most clearly from last season are Lustig’s nightmare against AEK home and away, especially his attempt at a header in the box that led to a goal in Athens- in fact everything AEK did ( which wasn’t much) came down Lustigs side of the pitch/ and his going to ground in the NY game when he sold himself to kent for Jacks goal/ the roasting he received from Kent in the 2-0 game at ibrox. Lets not get all sentimental about the big man. Yes he’s probably a Celtic great- an incredible signing- but he was well-passed his best/that much was patently obvious against semi-decent opposition (especially if they had any pace at all). Elhamed is by far a better defender- I’m confident he’ll handle Kent fairly easily (mainly because of his no-nonsense style and pace) compared to Lustigs various patchy performances against pacey Rangers wingers- lest we forget Barrie McKay? Lustig repeatedly made him look like Lionel Messi, simply because he couldn’t cope with pace. Sure I would probably have kept Lustig for minor opposition in the SPFL but not against the huns or European games. The difference at international level is that Sweden sit in and defend deep and that probably suits Lustig’s game better than it suits an all out attacking team like Celtic where a lack of pace can be exposed in a counter attack. Can any of us forget Lennon’s comments on isolating the vulnerabilities of Lustig whilst he was the Hibs manager? For me numbers don’t always tell the whole story.
Nick66 says
Another fasinating article CBN. I do do love your work, hours, upon hours. As i read your article my thoughts were, ah but, what about the different managing styles, you covered that at the end. I like El Hamed and think he will grow into the roll and numbers will improve over time. The one topic i can’t wait for is the Frimpong factor. The one graph that will have 100% is enthuseasm/smile graph. Love the ghuy but will look forward to your assessment keep the hours up best blog going.
emjay says
anyone with eyeballs that work can see that el hammed is Better! The issue with lustig is nothing to do with the player, he’s a legend and he earned it, the issue is that the club never bought anyone for years to compete with him when he was a clear weak link as Lennon the hibs manager said himself! frimpong is already Better than the 2 combined and an unbelievable find! let him loose at hampden! hail hail
emjay says
forgot to mention that I love the site and appreciate the hard work that goes into each piece
Duncan says
Lustig had his flaws defensively over the piece which were never addressed.
The main one being his positional sense.
Often caught out drifting inside leaving an acre of space for a winger with pace to exploit or simply not tracking runs at the back post when caught the wrong side of the ball on the counter.
For me he was a frustrated CB and would probably have benefited more from being a RCB in a back three rather than an auxiliary wingback in a four.
Going forward he had decent ability joining in the attack this comes from his early days in youth football as a Forward I gather.
His overall contribution at Celtic cannot be underplayed he was a key element like Brown in the side and dressing room but as stated above was targeted routinely by Managers with tactical nouse as a weak link in our defence.
It was time to find a replacement and I think Elhamed is first and foremost a better defender with a higher level of technical ability.
His close control and feet are excellent for a Defender.
Frimpong is without doubt going to excel at Celtic in the Wingback role and I think we can rotate both depending on tactics and formations.
Elhamed is more suited to a back 3 and Frimpong as a wingback in a 4.
I don’t think Lustig would have the legs now to cope with a more attack minded,dynamic Celtic under Lennon.
On the injuries side Lustig was injury prone on arrival and that seem to be sorted out over time I see a similar patter with Elhamed but the difference is now the backup players are stronger and it isn’t really that much of an issue as a result.
Duncan says
I should add that the right back area is now stronger in depth under Lennon than it was under both Della and Rodgers.
That comes down to better recruitment and I think better tactics.
ie Lennon will change things up depending on opposition.
Take the 3-5-2 against Lazio in Rome as an example of this.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Neither one strength nor weakness a player makes. I agree with all your points but Lustig added a lot on and off the pitch as you noted.
I agree also on options and I’ll work at n a suitable piece.
Duncan says
Hi Alan his importance in the side should never be understated because I think like Broony he was a key element in the chemistry of that side.
As the saying goes there is no I in team.
I think Celtic letting him go was indicative of the difference between a Board and it’s customer base.
They don’t look at players emotionally they just look at them as assets and whether it makes financial sense to retain a player on x amount or put that money into a younger asset with potential for growth.
Lustig is in the slide as a player and unlike Brown unable to adapt his game in the same area of the Park as the demands for Fullbacks increase in the modern game.
Brown has been converted into a Holding Mid and therefore not required to run 13k in every game box to box like he has done successfully for over a decade.
The demands at Celtic in Lustigs position have increased under Lennon.
I just don’t think he had the legs for it any more.
He that is Lustig always hinted he would rather come inside as a CB later on in his career and I think in hindsight he knew he would struggle with the demands later on.
I think if you remove the sentiment out of the situation then the Boards decision was the right one.
aldo67 says
In Hatem’s defense these stats will include a high percentage of the European games, and the one v that lot, so 7 out of 12 or 13 games v better opposition. Lustig’s stats will be v a lower quality average opposition.
I think there is more to Hatem than these stats suggest, that tackle v them, the interception v Lazio where he injured himself, to recall a few moments.
Not that I don’t love Lustig. I wanted him to stay, I think Lenny got more out him or played him to his strengths more. Plus you knew he loved playing for us. That said,
with Hatem, Frimpong and the blonde dude I think were ok at RB.
I look forward to seeing Frimpong merrily on highs stats. Will be interesting to see the defensive stuff, I’m assuming the attacking stats will be ok.
Jim says
Lustig was a good player for our Club over the past Seasons
he could sling in useful crosses & he who sometimes score a
peach of a goal here & there I remember his guided misile
goal @ the wee midden called Swinecastle & who can forget
his solo goal against Sevco @ falling apart bigger midden
Lustig in his day was a useful player indeed however old
Grandmother Way of Nature caught up will him & lost a
step or two as actor Ralph Finnes would say yeah like
milk was going off faster than not so Young Lustig however
he was a good servant for us & left fond memories as well.
I wish him all the best back in his homeland Norway bless
him
As for Young Elhamed if he can stay injury free from the
hammer-throwers SPFL which is easier said than done
then hopefully he will turn out to be a good addition