As I sit here, melting and keeping out the fierce sun, my daughter is watching a Dr Who. This reminds me of one of the long-standing jokes in my old role in IT Programme Management whenever a tricky and time critical (aren’t they all?) project came along.
Step 1: Build a Time Machine.
I know, hilarious. But relevant to the Celtic project Postecoglou has taken on.
Ange Postecoglou will be a successful Celtic manager.
Bookmark if you like. But this is a highly experienced football coach who habitually improves teams. He achieves this through clarity of playing vision and a rare ability to communicate it effectively.
Of course, there has to be a caveat. He must be supported by the club. Confidence this will happen is not high. The incoherence exhibited in his recruitment is testament. Someone explain to me the joined-up thinking that connects Roy Keane to Eddie Howe to Postecoglou?
Team Tactics
Likely by luck then, Celtic have happened upon a manager with gravitas. The substantial challenge for McKay is to align the departments to support the manager in a coherent way.
On the field, Postecoglou will have firm and consistent ideas about how he wants his team to play. He readily admits this takes time to implement. Much of the strategy depends upon attacking patterns of movement allied to coordinated pressing off the ball.
Both those facets require time to communicate, practise and implement consistently. Many months, usually.
Transfers
This reality, with a backdrop of never-ending injuries, players wanting away / kept beyond their wishes and a transfer market marching to a difference cadence than Celtic’s need to conduct business by mid-July, all points to the need for patience and understanding. Put another way, short term disappointment is almost inevitable.
Last season’s hoarding of unhappy players (part due to a COVID-decimated transfer market and part in a misguided attempt to secure 10 with the known) allied to poor loan and signing choices, has left the new manager a complete rebuild. Nine in a row was won through year-on-year calibration – 3 or 4 in 3 or 4 out. This isn’t that.
And this isn’t just a case of bringing in bodies. The manager is very clear on what attributes are required and the scouting and recruitment arm needs to deliver to that spec. Early signs are promising. Furuhashi and (hopefully) Starfelt, are well matched to requirements and indicative of a new direction of intelligent, dare I say data led, recruitment.
But this all takes time. Celtic’s place in the world means whereas 10 years ago it was £900k on Wanyama, 20, from Belgium with 60 games under his belt. Now it is £3.4m on Abada, 19, from Israel with similar number of games. Or a right back from France with under 20 matches experience (Soppy?) compared to a 22-year-old Van Dijk with 66 games in the Netherlands.
Support Structures
Data-driven recruitment and the proliferation of video analysis tools, as well as leagues such as the J-League and MLS able to market themselves globally, means there are fewer gems/unknowns. I can get stats in English U20 matches if required.
Celtic have been slow in this regard to keep up with clubs like Brentford, Atalanta, Salzburg, Leipzig and yes, Midtjylland, but there is a glimmer that may be changing. Again, this takes time.
There is a view amongst some of the support that either a) Celtic don’t have the modern support structures or b) people in those departments are ineffective and should all be replaced. I suspect the reality is that Celtic have many of the structures of the modern football club, but if they are not listened too or lack the skills/tools to communicate and influence effectively.
Whichever, the result will be the same – the failure to exploit all the small margins available. McKay speaks of modernisation, and Postecoglou is a smart man who will exploit all the available information and knowledge. But the corporate body has to be taken on the journey and there will be background comings and goings to fit in with philosophy and values.
Guess what? That takes time.
Conclusion
After a season where everything that could go wrong did, a systemic meltdown of a year, Celtic may have fallen, by accident, on their next great manager.
Both the manager and the CEO speak as one of the needs to modernise and build. This is encouraging but the reality underneath those words Is hard work, singularity of vision and time.
This is all within the backdrop of a season where the SPFL winner gets access to the Champions League group stages. A potentially game changing outcome in the battle for domestic hegemony.
Given the environment and challenges the manager faces, for me winning the SPFL title this season represents THE target and would be a success in my eyes. Anything over and above that would be, not even a bonus, but potentially a distraction.
I doubt that is a popular view amongst many in the support. However, Postecoglou has always been about the long game and I am with him on that all the way.
David Tracey says
Bang on the money. Cheers and HH
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
thanks David
James says
The hardest thing to change in any organisation is culture. The senior management at Celtic seem to be from a bygone age and are responsible for the overall decline in the club. We do need to modernize the club but I fear the people running the club will find it hard to change their ways. They almost certainly think they are doing a great job. Success will depend on how willing they are to allow McKay and Postecoglou make changes that move away from a system senior management thinks works.
Andrew says
Great analysis / summary. I’m also optimistic that Celtic have a smart coach / CEO who have the know how to turn things around for and embrace modern approaches.
Forlorn Hope says
Excellent piece, thanks! I agree 100% about the league being the (sole?) target. I still think that should celtic win nothing this year that the fans need to be patient. I know that’s a big ask but they need to be
Mon the Hoops
FrankM says
As always, an excellent article, based on sound reasoning on the best Celtic blog.
I fully endorse your remarks.
Thank you for being the best in the business.
With much respect.
SteveNaive says
A timely return CBN.
It is a popular view among all of the support I talk to !
The league is the thing, not as a short term grab back but as an achievable target upon which to build. Getting ahead of myself but I don’t trust the ‘board’ should that promised land be visited next season.
John Gow says
Sound assesment. Let’s give Ange and Dom the time needed to implement!
HH.
P says
Agree. Forget CL this year. EL nice to have. League cup for the squad players. Cup would be good. The league, with the guaranteed CL group stage place that comes with it, is the only show in town g ok r this season’s Celtic.
frank hewitt says
very objective analysis, just hope the wider support can appreciate the enormity of the task that ange has inherited and give him the time needed.
Aidan Thomas says
Would love to be Confidently Incorrect here, but our new manager has never worked in a job with a transfer market as we know it?
It’s a no from me Brian:)
Sláinte Ange says
With the benefit of hindsight, I am now convinced that that guy from Bournemouth was playing Celtic like a salmon on a line. I doubt he ever discussed the move to Glasgow with the staff he wanted to bring with him. Then used their reluctance as a lame excuse to pull the plug when no EPL club came calling as he had hoped. No fault of Celtic and a bullet dodged methinks.
In Ange we trust!
Jim says
IMO, I think Ange-P will be a blessing in disguise for Us. Forget the past mistakes, we should learn from our past mistakes,
& move on. We need to give Ange-P time time, to get a settled Team on the Park/Playing Field, & implement his Football
Style, & Philosophy, & Method of Approach. We need to allow time, for the new signings to bed in. We also need to
off-load the dead wood, & bring in players, who want to succeed with us & gain success.
As for European Footy, IMO, I look @ those fixtures as bonus matches, where players get paid bonus’s, if they perform
& do well, in these UEFA competitions. They are not the be all, end all of our Footy Season, as some folk thinks they are,
they are matches that comes around, even before our domestic Season has started each year, in which case if Scotland
(The SPL/SFA) was really serious, in trying to be well prepared, then we would have Seasons, which would begin @ the
Beginning of March, & end @ the end of December each Season, so that when those so-called Qualifiers comes around,
then we would be well prepared, to face the challenges which lays ahead, because we would be over three months, into
our domestic Season by then, & by then, we should be well up for those types of fixtures. (prepared & ready) As for the
tie against Midgyland, the worse scenario is, even if we don’t get past them, then we drop down to play off position, to
get into the Europa League, because the said matches against Midgyland, are Round Two of the so called CL Qualifiers.
& even if we don’t manage, to get into the Europa League Group Stages, which is probably highly unlikely, then we
would drop down, into the new so called, newly formed European Conference set up, so it’s not all Doom & Gloom,
as some folk are trying to make it out to be. Our main concern this Season, is to have a settled & efficient squad of
players, who can step up to the plate, when called upon, & play their part in a successful team, who can produce
consistent positive results, after all, we are operating in a results driven industry, where failure is not really an option.
Positive results, breeds confidence in one & other, & success. Negative results, breeds moans & groans, & negativity
all round. The bottom line here, is positive consistency, breeds success end of & a “No Brainer”!
As for our Club’s situation @ present? Yes, we are in a Transitional period @ present, where “Patience” is the ‘Key’
Remember Folks, Rome was not built in a Day, & as far as the recent International Euros where concerned, All Roads
Lead To Rome.
Also, I nearly forgot to mention, we really need to seriously look into our players recruitment methods, Scouting &
so on, after last Season’s shambles, which I’ve seen more tidier pig sty’s, than the past said mess, what a complete
cluster f*ck which unfolded, have the Board ever heard the words “Due Diligence” when it comes to researching
& purchasing, of new players, & not it’s a “Lucky Bag” approach as PL thinks it is, nah I don’t subscribe to that
method of approach, which is nonsense, & a total waste of time & money. If you look @ our rowdy neighbours
across the ‘No Mean City’ aka “Sevco” (55 My Botty) according to Alex Rea on Radio Moan, In with some useful
home truths, & true comments, Sevco managed to bring in, around half a dozen players, who all had International
Footy Experience, for around 300K, so what does that inform us about, yes there is some bargains to be had out
there, in the Footy World, by applying proper research & due diligence, which is a fact, & its called, getting ones
house in proper order, & being well organised as well. Not running it like a catastrophe, waiting to happen.
We digress Folks, & Hail ! Hail ! & (YNWA)
The Cha says
Whereas the league title would represent success, the converse is also true ie not winning it would be a failure.
It doesn’t mean the manager would be sacked if there was genuine progress made eg player development, team tactics, in-game changes and certainly competing and beating Rangers and not being walked over.
I would also like to see progress in Europe compared to last season. Unfortunately, due to the shambles he’s inherited, then this may only be in the ECL but it would still be a test.
The infinite patience model supporting lennon was disastrous and subsequent seasons for AP need to be predicated on progress this one.
Wully says
Once again CBN an entertaining and informative article. Already Ange seems to have won the fans over going by the positive reaction to a draw at home in a 1st round Euro tie.Looks like an interesting season ahead where our priority should be every league game.