The February derby at Celtic Park was a wonderful, raucous, pedal-to-the-metal, under the lights night for Celtic.
Postecoglou’s new Celtic tore into Van Bronckhorst’s reigning Champions from the first minute and had established a 3-0 lead by half time. More importantly, Celtic had been utterly dominant playing the style of football the Australian espouses.
By the break, xG was 1.42 to 0.08 off 9-2 shots. Celtic had 20 touches in the box to 5 and dominated the Packing metrics by 262-104. McGregor had made 4 very good saves in addition to fishing the ball out 3 times.
McGregor was even caught on camera roaring “Shitebag!” at Barisic.
In truth, we haven’t seen such a coherent expression of “Angeball” since, despite the domestic unbeaten streak now extending to a remarkable 31 games.
In the stadium, it felt like momentum had changed. Much of that was probably emotion and on The Huddle Breakdown I was confident if Celtic could get daylight between themselves and The Rangers, that they wouldn’t come back from it.
But the Ibrox club have hung in there. Celtic hit top spot with that February victory and haven’t been knocked off since. Indeed, what was once a 6-point deficit, is now 3 points positive plus a logical 1 for goal difference.
The Blues have a newer manager than Celtic, and success keeps on coming in Europe, so what can we learn from the February clash?
Line Ups
There is a strong chance Celtic will line up very similarly to this clash, with maybe Maeda preferred to Abada. Otherwise, the major difference for the Hoops will be a much stronger bench with Turnbull and possibly Furuhashi figuring.
The January recruits, of course, have many more minutes in their legs and a better appreciation for the Australian’s demands.
The much-heralded Diallo was hauled off at half time in this one and has barely been seen since. Ramsey enjoyed a great view from the main stand. Otherwise, they were a pretty much full strength apart from the missing Morelos ( Roofe, with much better season stats, deputised).
Van Bronckhorst tweaked Gerrard’s 4-3-3 into a 4-2-3-1.
Match Stats
Stat Box
Shot Map
Sofascore Momentum
It seems like the proverbial game of two half.
In truth, Celtic were out of sight by half time and sat back 10 yards deeper in the second half without conceding much in the way of chances. The Rangers best chance, a Goldson header, was in the 93rd minute.
Tactical Learnings
For Van Bronckhorst, there will be few surprises on Sunday. Postecoglou’s side will line up very similarly, maybe with Maeda for Abada and maybe with Rogic for O’Riley. However, the approach in terms of attacking intent, will remain.
We know this from everything Postecoglou says. And he means what he says. He believes the best way to win is to attack and remain on the front foot. I’m guessing 95%+ of managers, given an effective 4-point lead at this juncture of the season, would implement some kind of pragmatic game plan. This will not be the case with this Celtic side.
Whereas Gerrard/Beale’s outlook was largely consistent – a tightly compact 4-3-3, heavy reliance on full backs for creativity, limiting space between the lines out of possession – the Dutch manager has proven more flexible.
His default seems to be a 4-2-3-1 with a revitalised Lundstram anchoring with the returning Jack. Kamara was hooked at half time in February and has fallen out of favour. Morelos occupies the striking position, and has a simpler remit to remain central which is smart and plays to his strengths.
The loss of form of Barisic means the less creative Bassey is the current first choice left back. This means more emphasis on high and wide wingers. Kent will be one, but the other could be any number of candidates.
Flexibility comes from switching to a back three or occasionally more a 4-4-2 with Kent and Morelos at the front.
Van Bronckhorst got his approach badly wrong at Celtic Park. From the first minutes, Celtic’s full backs were underlapping and with Hatate and O’Riley drifting wide, created overloads in the wide channels. Neither winger (Kent and Diallo) was particularly effective in helping out and the two central midfielders were overrun until Jack came on.
This Statsbomb passing chart shows how stretched The Rangers were in the first half, and how isolated the forwards and central midfield were.
Celtic were allowed to play in the manner Postecoglou would wish.
Additionally, Celtic harassed and pressed effectively – 209 to 157 pressures. The Rangers tended to press in ones and twos at best whilst Celtic showed greater cohesion and organisation in their pressing decisions.
Out of possession, the Blues were quite passive and sat back allowing Celtic to come onto them but without the stifling compactness of Gerrard/Beale’s side.
Will Van Bronckorst make the same mistakes again?
Given their success in getting through two rounds in Europe since February, it seems unlikely.
The conundrum for the Dutchman is that his side is much better suited to European-style away days than opening up against domestic opposition as a recent slew of draws has shown. Under the previous regime, their supreme organisation made the side better than the sum of its parts.
Now, lacking great pace outside of Kent, and creativity outside of Tavernier, how can they impose themselves in an attacking sense against Celtic when their strength lies in defending?
Summary
Both managers may be expected to go against their instincts.
Postecoglou has a lead to protect but he will not compromise on Celtic’s attacking principles.
Van Bronckorst has achieved spectacular results in Europe utilising the counter attacking strengths that Gerrard/Beale forged and recruited to produce. But he needs a win. And he needs to not repeat the mistakes of February.
Perhaps both will stick to their principles after all!